NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 8
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production.
In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
Week 8 NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
Brandon Aiyuk
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Pass DVOA (Rank): 30th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 4th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 1st
If you are a firm believer in matchups giving your fantasy player a boost, then you should be frothing at the mouth on a weekly basis to take a wide receiver against this Seattle defense. I honestly cannot recall such a huge discrepancy in fantasy points allowed to a position, especially this deep into a season.
The Seattle Seahawks give up 60.23 (DraftKings) points per game to opposing wide receivers. The team that gives up the second most is the Cleveland Browns, and they allow ‘just’ 48.71 points per game. For comparison, the difference between the most allowed to the running back position (33.13) and the second most (32.37) is less than a point.
A lot of you may not know who Brandon Aiyuk is, but he is suddenly WR1 in San Francisco with Deebo Samuel already ruled out for Week 8. Last week against the Patriots, Aiyuk turned his seven targets into six receptions for 115 yards.
The numbers for this Seahawks defense are bound to positively regress at some point (right??), but Aiyuk is also priced below $6,000 on both FanDuel ($5,900) and DraftKings ($5,800). The only thing holding him back from an even higher projection is the fact that this 49ers offense is much more run-heavy than most of the other teams in the league.
Darren Waller
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Pass DVOA (Rank): 25th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 11th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 3rd
Fpts Allowed to TE (Rank): 9th
The above stats would look even better if Waller was actually listed as a wide receiver, as the Browns give up the second most fantasy points in the league to that position. As it is, they aren’t all that great against tight ends either, allowing the ninth most in the league.
The best part about looking at Waller this week is that you probably get a guy who is virtually unowned. Already a position at which the majority of DFS players prefer to pay down, they are otherwise usually paying up for guys like Kelce and Kittle at this position if they do decide to spend. And since we get the rare Main Slate this week where all of the best tight ends (including Mark Andrews) are actually on it, there is suddenly a bevy of high-priced options to choose from at this position.
So I ask, who exactly is going to roster Darren Waller this week? My guess: not many. I feel compelled to remind you that this guy dominates the market share of targets (27.3%) for this team; his closest competition is Hunter Renfrow (14.3%). If you want to roster a chalky Kareem Hunt this weekend, I love bringing it back with a mini Carr/Waller stack.
Davante Adams
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Pass DVOA (Rank): 15th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 3rd
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 7th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 3rd
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the top projected wide receiver on the slate. Unsurprisingly, Adams checks all the boxes this week.
For one, he gets a great matchup (he better if he ends up in this article, right?). While the Vikings being in the middle of the pack in Pass Defense DVOA was a bit surprising, all of the other metrics listed above pop in a big way. That is especially so with them allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Adams also has massive volume working in his favor, which should be enhanced if Aaron Jones is out again this week (sounds like he will be). In Week 7 against the Texans (with Jones inactive), Adams turned a hilariously-high 16 targets into 13 receptions for 196 yards and two touchdowns. And it’s not like that was a blip on the radar, as he saw a total of 27 targets in the other two games he played this season that he didn’t leave early with an injury.
The only negative here is an extremely expensive price tag. He is the most expensive player on the entire DraftKings slate ($8,800) and the fourth most expensive on FanDuel ($9,100). But there is no way I can sit here and say he isn’t worth paying up for.