NFL DFS Picks - Expert Survey: Conference Championships

Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy football experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s contests.

Conference Championships

Who is your favorite player for cash games?

Notorious: Damien Williams
MrTuttle: Damien Williams
meansy53: Damien Williams
Stevietpfl: Derrick Henry

Who is your favorite player for tournaments?

Notorious: Deebo Samuel
MrTuttle: Tyreek Hill
meansy53: Tyreek Hill
Stevietpfl: George Kittle

Who is your favorite salary saver for cash games?

Notorious: Deebo Samuel (FD) / A.J. Brown (DK)
MrTuttle: Deebo Samuel (FD) / A.J. Brown (DK)
meansy53: Deebo Samuel (FD) / A.J. Brown (DK)
Stevietpfl: Deebo Samuel (FD) / A.J. Brown (DK)

Who is your favorite salary saver for tournaments?

Notorious: Raheem Mostert
MrTuttle: Raheem Mostert
meansy53: Raheem Mostert
Stevietpfl: Raheem Mostert

Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Tevin Coleman
MrTuttle: Derrick Henry
meansy53: Derrick Henry
Stevietpfl: Tevin Coleman

Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?

Notorious: KC
MrTuttle: KC
meansy53: KC
Stevietpfl: GB

What’s the best position to spend up on this week?

Notorious: RB
MrTuttle: RB
meansy53: RB
Stevietpfl: RB

What’s the best position to save salary on this week?

Notorious: WR
MrTuttle: WR
meansy53: WR
Stevietpfl: WR

Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?

Notorious: TE
MrTuttle: WR
meansy53: TE
Stevietpfl: RB

What is your favorite ATS or O/U pick of the weekend?

Notorious: GB +7.5
MrTuttle: GB/SF o46.5
meansy53: SF -7.5
Stevietpfl: GB +7.5

What is your favorite way to differentiate from the field?

Notorious: I thought paying up for George Kittle and Travis Kelce was going to be the chalky roster construction last week, but both players ended up being lower owned than I expected. There is some unknown force in the universe that keeps most DFS players from playing two tight ends in the same lineup. While I expect both players to be popular again this week, I don’t expect many to play them in the same lineup. It’s hard enough to make a lineup as is and many will look to punt the position with Jimmy Graham or Jonnu Smith. Paying up for both of the elite tight ends should give you a unique roster construction.

MrTuttle: Fade Tevin Coleman and recency bias. Last week I recommended avoiding chalky Raheem Mostert and this week I want to stay away from Tevin Coleman at likely inflated ownership. While Kyle Shanahan rode Coleman’s hot hand last week against the Vikings all three RB’s were involved, including 8 carries from Matt Breida which was his highest total since Week 10. Mostert’s reduction in touches were partially because of Coleman’s hot hand and partially because he was battling cramps/illness. It would be unsurprising to see Mostert lead the backfield against the Packers but the reality is trying to figure out the distribution of RB touches for SF is almost impossible to do with any sort of accuracy.

meansy53: I hate duplicating some answers I see here, but I agree with Tuttle and Stevie on getting away from this Coleman chalk. Early runs on Projected Ownership have him at 70+% based on what he did last week. That is an easy way to be different from the field considering 1) the Niners ideally will always want this to be a three-headed backfield, and 2) the guy has seen a total of four targets in his last six games. There are plenty of other players in this general price range, even on a two-game slate, that have similar ceilings.

Stevietpfl: Already seeing a lot of ownership projected towards Tevin Coleman, and being way underweight on him is the plan for me to be different. I also like the idea of loading up on the GB/SF game instead of KC to be a little different. If the Titans can run the ball well, they should slow this game down, and a few defensive spots would be big for the current pricing of some of these players. The biggest thing this weekend is telling a story with your lineup build because it’s a two-game slate and anything can happen.

What is your favorite way to differentiate from the field for KC/TEN single-game contests?

Notorious: The popular build will include four or five Chiefs and rightly so. Outside of Derrick Henry, the Titans’ offense doesn’t have much to offer. One way to differentiate is to play three Titans in showdown. It feels gross, but it will at least be a little different from the masses. I also don’t mind taking a chance on Anthony Firkser or MyCole Pruitt. They really only need one catch to pay off their respective salaries.

MrTuttle: Fade Travis Kelce. Kelce’s ownership may pop after scoring three touchdowns in the divisional round against the Texans but he’s now at a price tag that is tough for me to justify.

meansy53: Stack or mini-stack the Titans passing game. Chiefs will be popular for obvious reasons. Derrick Henry will as well. Ryan Tannehill and a few of his receiving options? Not nearly as much in my estimation. Sure, A.J. Brown will see some traffic, but consider some combinations of Tannehill and one or two of his lesser-known options like Anthony Firkser, Jonnu Smith, Tajae Sharpe, or Corey Davis. The Titans haven’t needed to throw the ball in their first two playoff games, but the game script may force them to dial it up a bit against the Chiefs.

Stevietpfl: Captain Henry! I don’t think we see him as highly owned in the captain spot as one would think. With his price so close to Mahomes and Mahomes being a safer option, I think people tend to lean playing Mahomes. I also like the idea of taking a shot on a guy like Robinson, he saw plenty of meaningful targets last week.

What is your favorite way to differentiate from the field for SF/GB single-game contests?

Notorious: I could be completely off base with this take, but I don’t expect many to play both Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. It’s hard to trust any of the Niners’ running backs and I expect most to choose one or the other. Coleman had the big game against the Vikings and will get the first crack at the hot hand approach the Niners use, but Mostert was apparently dealing with an illness and had cramps during the game. I could easily see this week swinging back to Mostert or becoming a 50/50 split. If all the touchdowns come on the ground, playing both running backs could carry you to the top of tournaments this week.

MrTuttle: Take a shot at Green Bay’s secondary pass-catchers. Who exactly to play is going to be dependent on on Allen Lazard (Q) availability but if he’s unable to suit up Geronimo Allison and Jake Kumerow are the likeliest candidates to be on the field the most. If you’re looking for a truly terrible take, Jace Sternberger is someone I’m eyeing up if Dan Vitale is once again inactive. Sternberger played some snaps at H-back in Vitale’s absence last week and I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt LaFleur schemed a couple of plays to get him the ball.

meansy53: Go with more Kendrick Bourne as the pairing with Garoppolo compared to Samuel or Sanders. The latter two look to have the higher ownership despite Bourne having the better game last week. And even if he didn’t, these three guys are close enough in expected volume and red zone opportunities that I’d want the lowest owned guy of the bunch anyways. With that looking to be Bourne, I will roll with him and hope he finds the end zone for the second straight week.

Stevietpfl: Kendrick Bourne continues to score redzone touchdowns, and could be a great way to be different on this one-game slate. I also like him a lot for the main two-game slate. I think his price scares some people away and with Green Bay having some nice value, I’m hoping for low ownership on Bourne in this game.

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