NFL DFS Expert Survey: Conference Championships
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for the Conference Championships
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey – Try as I might, I can’t get away from the Niners chalk. They are facing a Lions defense that is a clear pass-funnel — Detroit is 1st in DVOA against the run and 25th in EPA against the pass. Purdy has struggled a bit recently, but two of those were bad weather games. It’s expected to be nice in San Francisco on Sunday, so I am expecting a big bounce-back performance against the team that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. I will also pair Purdy with one of his pass catchers, but I will make sure to include C-Mac in those stacks. Even though it’s a bad matchup for the running game, C-Mac will get plenty of looks near the goal line and be heavily involved in the passing game. I’m hoping to capture all of the offensive touchdowns on the team with the highest implied team total.
squirrelpatrol: Brock Purdy + Brandon Aiyuk + Jahmyr Gibbs – The DET/SF game could see more points – particularly fantasy points – than people are expecting, with San Francisco allowing the 4th-most receptions in the NFL this season and Detroit allowing the 7th-most receptions to WRs. The Lions were particularly stout against RBs this season, even receiving RBs, so although I see San Francisco controlling this game, they may have to do it with Purdy and Aiyuk rather than their steady dose of Christian McCaffrey. On the Lions side, Gibbs has scored a TD with 4 receptions and at least 40 yards in each of Detroit’s first 2 playoff games, and I expect he could get even more receiving work in this game.
Krayton: Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews + Isiah Pacheco – The upside for Jackson is so much better than the other QBs that I will be taking an overweight stance on him. We just saw him showcase why he is an elite QB by throwing for 2 TDs and rushing for 2 TDs on his way to scoring 39.1 DK points. It now looks like he will have Andrews back. That is a very big deal for the Ravens offense, and I will be looking to go overweight on both. On the KC side, Pacheco has been great. With Jerick McKinnon out, we have seen Pacheco continue to get a ton of work, and he has scored a TD and gone for 15+ fantasy points in each of the 2 playoff games. His price has not moved much on DK, and he will be a core play for me on the KC side.
ebeimfohr: Lamar Jackson + Justice Hill – Going a little off the beaten path with the top correlation this week, but I think it makes particular sense for a 2-game slate like this one. Hill has really emerged as what I’d call the 1a back for Baltimore, splitting the rushing work with Gus Edwards, but more importantly, taking over the pass-game work. We have seen how dynamic he can be in the pass game, and I expect the Ravens to be aggressive given the magnitude of this game and having Patrick Mahomes on the other side. Specifically, Hill feasted in Week 17 in the pass game against a similar Dolphins defense, and if we can get another outcome like that, this correlation can be a very unique way to load up on a high-scoring Ravens offense.
Stevietpfl: Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews + Travis Kelce – I’m going to be overweight on two tight end builds, and this is one of my favorite combinations, assuming Andrews plays. Jackson’s favorite red-zone target is Andrews, which gives him a high ceiling in a game this big. Jackson has been great over the last 5 games and will need one more big game to get past Kansas City. This game has a lot of potential, and Jackson has the highest floor/ceiling combo of any quarterback on this slate. Kelce has 16 total targets in their 2 playoff games and found the end zone last week for the first time since Week 11. He’s the go-to player for Patrick Mahomes and has a massive ceiling in a game they’re projected to be trailing in.
eys819: Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey + George Kittle + Jameson Williams – The Lions have been outstanding against the run and poor against the pass. That doesn’t mean we should be afraid of McCaffrey, but rather embrace his role as the best passing catching running back in the league. The Niners could look to get the ball to CMC in the air if they are unable to establish a ground game, and that only raises his ceiling. With Deebo banged up and likely at least limited for this game, Kittle should have a huge role. Jameson Williams has the big play ability that could really help speed the game up.
Bobby Gomes: Christian McCaffrey + Amon-Ra St. Brown – It makes sense to target the game with the highest total (50.5). This game can be fully stacked, as it features some of the best offensive weapons in the NFL. We’ll save a couple bucks on Brock Purdy, who’s been steady, and it also features the two highest non-QB ceilings on the slate, CMC and ASB. Thankfully there are some value/punt plays at WR that will allow us to jam in a high-upside core with these two featured in it. We’ll take around 30 touches total from CMC and ASB, and I anticipate 50+ fantasy points between them.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board and why?
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