NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 14
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 14
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs + Rashee Rice – How often do we get to target Allen and Diggs at sub-10% projected ownership individually? This is one of the only games on the main slate that I could see shooting out, and the Bills are essentially in must-win mode the rest of the season. We know the defense has been bad, so they’ll need the offense to put up a lot of points. I like bringing it back with Rice, who seems to have a bigger role each and every week.
squirrelpatrol: Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen – This seems like a case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Chargers have lost 3 of their last 4 games and scored only 6 points in the 1 win, and the Broncos have won 5 of their last 6 games. I’m willing to take the risk that the Chargers can turn things around and that their recent form keeps ownership lower than it should be. It’s tough to remember that Herbert had a game with 4 passing touchdowns just 4 games ago and another game with 405 passing yards earlier this season, so we know the talent is there.
Krayton: Justin Fields + DJ Moore + Amon-Ra St. Brown – We just had this game in Detroit back in Week 11 where Fields really showcased his rushing ability, going for 104 yards on 18 attempts while putting up 24.2 DK points. His upside is just too good to pass up this week, and his price is actually a very good value on both sites. Moore also has huge upside paired with Fields, as he has 9 and 13 targets in the last 2 games with Fields back. He showed us his ceiling of 55 DK points against Washington earlier in the season, and in his last game against Detroit, he put up 22.6. St. Brown is my favorite bring-back option on the Detroit side, although I think both David Montgomery on DK and Jahmyr Gibbs on FD are low-owned targets in this game.
ebeimfohr: Gabe Davis + Rashee Rice – A little unorthodox correlation for me, but I love the upside of these WRs paired together at very affordable prices. Rice has emerged as the go-to WR for the Chiefs, but pricing hasn’t quite caught up to the rookie’s ascension over the last few weeks. The Bills are in a must-win game, which means they should lean more heavily on Allen’s arm, which is very good for Davis here. We know his ceiling (as seen in this matchup in the playoffs in the past), but the Chiefs should shadow Stefon Diggs with L’Jarius Sneed, and they’re dealing with a boatload of injuries on defense that should allow the Bills to have a monster game.
Stevietpfl: Russell Wilson + Courtland Sutton + Keenan Allen – I’m a little concerned about the weather on the East Coast this weekend. With that said, I think this game has a lot of potential. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot, and this game could mean a lot. The Chargers rank 28th in overall DVOA and are 27th in pass DVOA. They’re allowing 290 passing yards per game, which is the highest in the NFL. Wilson hasn’t shown much upside, but I think this is a high-upside spot. He has at least 8 rush attempts in 4 of his last 5 games. His #1 red-zone target has been Sutton, who has the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns among wide receivers this season. Allen leads the NFL with 138 targets and has the 2nd-highest target share (32.2%). Patrick Surtain was banged up last game, and the Chargers do a great job moving Allen all over the field. I’m going to be overweight on this game.
eys819: Brock Purdy + Deebo Samuel + Jaxon Smith-Njigba – The Niners throttled the Seahawks on Thanksgiving. Christian McCaffrey had a big day on the ground with over 100 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, while Deebo Samuel added a rushing TD as well. Brock Purdy had a mediocre stat line in that matchup, and I am hoping that keeps the field away from him a bit despite him coming off a monster game last week. Deebo is my preferred stacking partner, as he has massive big play ability and is currently projected for sub-10% pOWN. I will use Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the run-back. He provides a little salary relief and is coming off his highest volume of the season last week (11 targets).
Bobby Gomes: Justin Fields + DJ Moore + Amon-Ra St.Brown and/or Sam Laporta – There will be some wet game conditions in Week 14, but the DET/CHI game appears to be clear in Chi-Town. These two divisional foes had a combined 57 points Week 11 in Detroit. Fields is $6,800 on DK and rushed for 100+ yards in that game while also connecting with Moore 7 times for 96 yards and a touchdown. On the other side, St. Brown had 8 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown in that game. Fields is going to be chalky, but Moore is sitting in the 11-15% range depending on site, and St. Brown is around 5-9%.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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