The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Bills vs. Rams
For this Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup on 10/12 featuring the Bills vs. Rams, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Bills vs. Rams
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
We have one more game before Week 5 is officially in the books. Luckily for us, it should be a great one.
We have two of the Super Bowl favorites squaring off tonight in Los Angeles. The Bills are 3-1 with a point differential of +20 this season. Their defense has struggled to slow down opponents, but their offense has been one of the best in football. The Rams haven’t looked dominant in their first 4 games, but they are 2-2 in the standings and are capable of beating anyone on any given week.
This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 54.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Monday, 11:30 AM ET)
▪️ WR Joshua Palmer (BUF) — Out (shoulder)
▪️ DL Ed Oliver (BUF) — Out (knee)
▪️ WR DJ Moore (BUF) — Questionable (shoulder)
▪️ CB Dee Alford (BUF) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ DL Landon Jackson (BUF) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ TE Terrance Ferguson (LAR) — Out (ankle)
▪️ S Quentin Lake (LAR) — Questionable (hip)
Buffalo Bills Preview
Josh Allen can’t sustain his current pace of scoring rushing touchdowns (7 in the first 4 games), but there’s no reason his passing production can’t improve. He has been held under 255 passing yards in each of the last 3 games. Believe it or not, he has more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns at the moment. I have a fairly simple rule of locking him into the MVP and CPT roles anytime he’s on a Showdown slate. The Rams are 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback this season, but this should be a competitive game throughout. The Bills will likely have to stay aggressive on offense.
Bills’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Dalton Kincaid (TE): 61% route part., 16% target share, 22% air yards share, 10.3 XFPPG
🔹 Keon Coleman: 60% route part., 13% target share, 18% air yards share, 9.2 XFPPG
🔹 Khalil Shakir: 65% route part., 19% target share, 11% air yards share, 9.2 XFPPG
🔹 Dawson Knox (TE): 42% route part., 5% target share, 1% air yards share, 3.7 XFPPG
DJ Moore is likely out, and Josh Palmer has been ruled out of tonight’s game. If Moore is also out, that opens up 24% of the team’s targets and 48% of the team’s air yards. Keon Coleman has shown the ability to make contested catches, but he struggles to find separation from coverage. Khalil Shakir runs 56% of his routes from the slot and has a low aDOT (5.4), but he could get there through volume tonight.
Greg Dortch and Skyler Bell will mix in as well at wide receiver. They don’t have great projections, but they are both priced under $1,000 on DraftKings. The Rams are 3rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season, but Dalton Kincaid stands out as one of the best point-per-dollar options on the slate. He’s racked up a 16% target share and a 22% air yards share this season, and now the Bills will be without Palmer (and likely Moore). The Bills will likely employ more 12 personnel (2 tight end sets) tonight, so expect an uptick in snaps and routes for Dawson Knox.
From an efficiency standpoint, James Cook III is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He has averaged 6 yards per carry this season and has 133 rushing yards over expectation, which is 2nd only to Bijan Robinson. He hasn’t done much in the passing game this season, but he has run a route on 43% of dropbacks. He’s shown receiving upside in the past, so perhaps he’ll get an extra target or two tonight with the wide receiver room being shorthanded. Ty Johnson has seen 6 targets over the last 2 games and can be kept in your player pool if you are building multiple tournament lineups.
The Bills have a 42% pressure rate this season, while the Rams offensive line has allowed a 43% pressure rate. They should be able to generate some pressure on Matthew Stafford. Kicker Tyler Bass is viable, but there’s more value on than usual on this Showdown slate.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford has already thrown 6 interceptions this season, which is very uncharacteristic for one of the best quarterbacks of the last decade. He’s topped 25 fantasy points twice and has been held under 15 fantasy points twice. He’ll have most of his weapons available tonight, and he draws an elite matchup against the Bills, who are 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Stafford has no rushing upside, but he’s still viable at MVP and CPT.
Rams’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Davante Adams: 83% route part., 23% target share, 41% air yards share, 17.7 XFPPG
🔹 Puka Nacua: 83% route part., 27% target share, 35% air yards share, 15.6 XFPPG
🔹 Tyler Higbee (TE): 51% route part., 12% target share, 10% air yards share, 7.9 XFPPG
🔹 Konata Mumpfield: 52% route part., 9% target share, 14% air yards share, 6.0 XFPPG
🔹 Colby Parkinson (TE): 33% route part., 4% target share, 1% air yards share, 2.6 XFPPG
Puka Nacua wasn’t limited in his return in Week 4. He played on 91% of snaps and turned 10 touches (9 receptions and 1 rushing attempt) into 127 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He’s the clear WR1 in this offense when healthy. He should feast against a Bills defense that has allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Davante Adams was tremendous in the 2 games that Nacua missed but has only averaged 6 fantasy points in the 2 games playing alongside Nacua. Adams is an interesting contrarian option tonight, but I much prefer Nacua if choosing between the two.
Konata Mumpfield is back to his WR3 with Nacua back in the lineup. I prefer the value receivers on the Bills. With Terrance Ferguson out, we can expect more snaps and routes for both Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee, and Davis Allen. Higbee projects the best of the three, but he’s also the most expensive. Trying to figure out which Rams tight end is going to find the optimal lineup is a tough task, but it can pay big dividends. I like the idea of mixing and matching these three throughout large-field tournament lineups.
No matter how much we want Blake Corum to have a bigger role, it’s unlikely to happen at this point. Sean McVay loves to have a workhorse running back, and that’s going to be Kyren Williams for the time being. Williams is coming off a massive game against the Eagles where he turned 26 touches (16 rushing attempts and 10 receptions) into 147 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. I will target two running backs on the same team every once in a while in Showdown, but only when I think that team can win in a blowout. I don’t feel great about that against the Bills.
The Rams defense has looked better over the last 3 games, but they are facing one of the best offenses in football. I don’t have much interest in them on this slate. Kicker Harrison Mevis is viable, but again, there are more value plays than usual on this Showdown slate.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
I’m a bit surprised at the projected ownership, as more people are gravitating to Puka Nacua (23%) than Josh Allen (16%). While I like both players in the multiplier spot, I do prefer Allen given his rushing upside. This is a rare slate where I don’t mind going with a cheaper CPT. Keon Coleman, Colby Parkinson, or Khalil Shakir could end up as the optimal CPT if one of them scores a touchdown.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
The projected ownership at MVP is concentrated around four players — Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams. I prefer Allen above the rest, but you can make a case for all of them. The value route isn’t quite as appealing on FanDuel, as there aren’t any super obvious point-per-dollar targets.
Prop Pick – Bills vs. Rams
Season Record: 5-4
✅ James Cook III o10.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data