The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Bills vs. Vikings
For this Week 9 Monday Night Football matchup on 11/9 featuring the Bills vs. Vikings, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Bills vs. Vikings
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Happy Monday, everyone. Starting the work week isn’t everyone’s favorite, but at least we have a good football game to look forward to tonight. The Bills are 6-1 with a point differential of +52 this season. They sit atop the AFC East and are once again Super Bowl contenders. The Vikings have the same record (6-1) and a similar point differential (+47), yet almost everyone thinks they are a fraudulent team.
These teams are opposites in terms of their strengths. The Bills have one of the best offenses in football, while the Vikings have one of the best defenses in football. This should be a fun game to watch. The Bills are 3-point favorites, and the game features a total of 44.5 points.
We’ve hit 5 straight player props on these Showdown slates. Scroll to the bottom of the page to see my favorite prop for tonight’s game.
Key Injuries (as of Monday, 11:00 AM ET)
▪️ Joshua Palmer (WR): Out (hamstring)
▪️ Tyrell Shavers (WR): Questionable (knee)
▪️ Dion Dawkins (T): Questionable (rib)
▪️ Alec Anderson (OL): Questionable (ankle)
▪️ Greg Gaines (DL): Questionable (calf)
▪️ Jordan Hancock (DB): Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ Kyler Murray (QB): Out (hamstring)
▪️ Jauan Jennings (WR): Out (calf)
▪️ Demond Claiborne (RB): Out (knee)
▪️ Theo Jackson (S): Questionable (quad)
▪️ Jay Ward (S): Questionable (knee)
Buffalo Bills Preview
Josh Allen has been a cheat code in DFS for many years, and he’s somehow having one of his most productive seasons ever. He has averaged 28.5 fantasy points and has already had 3 games with more than 34 fantasy points. The crazy part is that he’s only thrown for more than 300 yards one time all season. The rushing production has been elite, and he continues to score most of the touchdowns in an elite offense. He has a real test this week against the Vikings, who are 1st in EPA allowed per dropback, schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and blitz rate. Even with the tough matchup, he’s arguably the top CPT/MVP target on the slate.
Bills’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Khalil Shakir: 69% route part., 18% target share, 10% air-yards share, 8.6 XFPPG
🔹 Keon Coleman: 65% route part., 13% target share, 24% air-yards share, 8.5 XFPPG
🔹 Dalton Kincaid (TE): 62% route part., 17% target share, 20% air-yards share, 10.9 XFPPG
🔹 DJ Moore: 57% route part., 17% target share, 29% air-yards share, 8.5 XFPPG
🔹 Dawson Knox (TE): 43% route part., 6% target share, 3% air-yards share, 3.8 XFPPG
DJ Moore has struggled to stay healthy this season, but he leads the team in air yards when on the field. Khalil Shakir is the primary slot receiver who leads the team in target share. Keon Coleman has some encouraging usage and has caught a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games, but Moore didn’t suit up in 2 of those games. He’s unlikely to see a huge target share with Moore active. Skyler Bell could see a handful of snaps as well, and he’s only $200 on DraftKings. All he needs is 1 reception to pay off his salary.
The Bills like to play a lot of 12 personnel, so we’ll see a lot of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox tonight. With that said, I expect Knox to stay in to help block more often than not, as the Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the NFL. Kincaid isn’t great in pass protection, so he should run routes when he’s on the field. He’s seen a healthy 17% target share and 20% air yards share this season. The Vikings are a tough matchup for all pass catchers, ranking 1st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 5th to tight ends.
James Cook III has averaged 101 yards per game this season and has one of the highest rushing yards over expectation of any running back in the league. However, it’s tough to prioritize him on tonight’s slate. The Vikings have allowed the fewest fantasy points of any team to running backs, and Allen continues to steal a lot of his carries near the goal line. Cook is a capable pass catcher, but he’ll likely be asked to help with pass protection more than usual. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis will mix in as well, but they have the same difficult matchup.
The Bills are facing a bad offense, but they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. A fluke play could always lead to a defensive score, but I’m not prioritizing them in my builds. Kicker Tyler Bass could be a great play tonight. The Bills should be able to move the ball, but they could struggle in the redzone against this elite defense.
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Minnesota Vikings Preview
Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been ruled out of tonight’s game. Even though the Vikings are 6-1, I would make the move to Carson Wentz if I were coaching this team. I see him as a better fit for the offense. Wentz will draw the start tonight, and he makes for a strong play in all formats. He is playing at home against the Bills, who are 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and 24th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I don’t love Wentz at CPT/MVP, but he’s one of the top UTIL/FLEX plays on the slate.
Vikints’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Jordan Addison: 91% route part., 20% target share, 40% air-yards share, 8.2 XFPPG
🔹 Justin Jefferson: 77% route part., 25% target share, 33% air-yards share, 13.3 XFPPG
🔹 T.J. Hockenson (TE): 57% route part., 19% target share, 18% air-yards share, 11.0 XFPPG
🔹 Tai Felton: 38% route part., 4% target share, 4% air-yards share, 1.4 XFPPG
🔹 Myles Price: 15% route part., 4% target share, 0% air-yards share, 1.8 XFPPG
Justin Jefferson hasn’t had a big fantasy season, but he still has elite usage with a 25% target share and a 33% air yards share. More importantly, his biggest game of the season (33 fantasy points) came with Wentz under center in Week 1. Jordan Addison has run more routes than Jefferson and has a 40% air yards share this season. Both are firmly in play against the Bills, who are 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Myles Price and Tai Felton will mix in at wide receiver as well. They both have floors of zero, but they are cheap enough to keep in your player pool on DraftKings. T.J. Hockenson hasn’t run as many routes this season, but he still boasts a 19% target share and an 18% air yards share. However, tight end is the one position that the Bills defend well, as they have allowed the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points.
Jordan Mason returned to action in Week 7, and it’s been an unappealing timeshare in this backfield ever since. The two are both priced up, even though we can only expect them to see 40-50% of the work. In cash games and single-entry tournaments, this is an easy situation to avoid. If you are building multiple lineups for large-field tournaments, I don’t mind getting a little exposure to each. The Bills are 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Vikings have the best defense in football and blitz more than any team in the NFL, so there’s certainly a path for them to end up on the optimal lineup tonight. I don’t love picking on Josh Allen, so I would only use Minnesota’s defense in large-field tournaments. Kicker Will Reichard is viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Josh Allen and Justin Jefferson are dominating projected ownership at CPT on DraftKings. They are my favorites at the multiplier position, so I’m in line with the field here. One interesting build is using Allen at CPT and then building a Vikings stack around him.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
It’s the same story on FanDuel, as Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and Justin Jefferson are dominating projected ownership at MVP. I’m not looking to get too cute with the multiplier position tonight, but I do think there’s a scenario where Tyler Bass makes 4+ field goals.
Prop Pick – Bills vs. Vikings
Season Record: 14-9
✅ Tyler Bass o1.5 field goals made
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 9, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data