The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Colts vs. Commanders
For this Week 4 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 10/4 featuring the Colts vs. Commanders, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Colts vs. Commanders
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
If you are up bright and early, you can enjoy a Showdown appetizer before the main course main slate on Sunday. The Colts are only 1-2 on the season with a -19 points differential, but they’ll still be in the thick of things in the AFC South with a win over the Commanders in London. Washington looked awful in their first 2 games, yet they somehow beat the defending Super Bowl champs without Jayden Daniels last week.
This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Saturday, 11:00 PM ET)
▪️ WR Keenan Allen (IND) — Out (groin)
▪️ WR Alec Pierce (IND) — Out (heel, on IR)
▪️ RB Rachaad White (WAS) — Out (shoulder)
▪️ QB Jayden Daniels (WAS) — Out (not yet cleared)
▪️ G Sam Cosmi (WAS) — Out (concussion/throat)
▪️ S Nick Cross (WAS) — Out (illness, not traveling)
▪️ WR Terry McLaurin (WAS) — Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ WR Ashton Dulin (IND) — Questionable (ankle)
Indianapolis Colts Preview
Daniel Jones has struggled with consistency throughout his career, but he’s always had upside thanks to his ability to scramble. After suffering a torn Achilles last season, he has been hesitant to run this season. Through the first 3 games, he has 19 rushing yards. To make matters worse, he continues to lose weapons in the passing game. Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen have both been ruled out. It’s a great matchup, but I do worry about his upside. For that reason, I see him as a better UTIL/FLEX play than CPT/MVP play.
Colts’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Josh Downs: 83% route participation, 25% target share, 41% air yards share
🔹 Tyler Warren: 82% route participation, 22% target share, 8% air yards share
🔹 Laquon Treadwell: 57% route participation, 5% target share, 13% air yards share
🔹 Deion Burks: 11% route participation, 0% target share, 0% air yards share
With Pierce and Allen both out, there are a lot of targets to go around in this offense. Josh Downs has quietly had some massive usage in the first 3 games of the season, as he boasts a 25% target share and a 41% air yards share. He should dominate targets against a leaky secondary and is one of my favorite plays at CPT. Tyler Warren hasn’t run many routes downfield (8% air yards share), but he’s getting targets and is a great weapon in the redzone.
It will be interesting to see if any of these value receivers can produce. After Downs, the Colts are going to throw out the likes of Darius Slayton, Deion Burks, Laquon Treadwell, and Ashton Dulin. You have to think one of them will step up and have a nice outing, but we don’t have any of them projected well. Perhaps we should stick with the known commodities in this offense.
The Colts already run the ball, and now they are without two of their best wide receivers. Jonathan Taylor should have a massive workload in this one. He has played on 90% of the snaps this season and has averaged 22 fantasy points per game. He’s a big part of the passing game, and he gets all of the goal line work. The Commanders might have some stout rush defense metrics early in the season, but I’m not buying it. They haven’t faced a rushing attack like this one.
The Colts’ defense is viable in large-field tournaments, as they face a backup quarterback in a strange London game. Kicker Spencer Shrader has been great in the first 3 games and projects as one of the top value plays in the game.
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Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels has not been cleared to play for the Commanders, which means another start for Marcus Mariota. He’s an NFL veteran with some rushing upside, so we shouldn’t be so quick to brush him off as a bad DFS play. He put up 20 fantasy points against the Seahawks last week. The Colts have struggled on defense, ranking 25th in EPA per dropback and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. If playing one of these quarterbacks at CPT/MVP, I actually prefer Mariota over Jones.
Commanders’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Stefon Diggs: 64% route participation, 22% target share, 23% air yards share
🔹 Antonio Williams: 37% route participation, 11% target share, 14% air yards share
🔹 Chig Okonkwo: 53% route participation, 9% target share, 16% air yards share
🔹 Treylon Burks: 35% route participation, 5% target share, 10% air yards share
🔹 Dyami Brown: 47% route participation, 9% target share, 16% air yards share
Terry McLaurin is not expected to play in this game, which means Stefon Diggs will be the clear WR1 for the Commanders. Even with McLaurin in the lineup over the first 3 games, Diggs has seen a 22% target share and a 23% air yards share. He’s a strong option in all formats. Antonio Williams is expected to be the WR2 in this one, while Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown will mix in as well. Williams is my favorite of the group, as he’s been a decent target earner while on the field. Chig Okonkwo is expected back and should benefit with McLaurin out.
The Commanders’ backfield has been a mess in the first 3 games. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has failed to separate from the pack, and Rachaad White has stolen a lot of the high-value opportunities (targets and redzone carries). This will likely come down to game script. If the Commanders build a lead, we will see more JCM. If they fall behind early, we will see more White. I expect more of the latter. It’s a good matchup, as the Colts have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to running backs this season.
The Commanders don’t have a good defense, but they are facing a struggling Colts’ offense that is missing two of their best receivers. I don’t love it, but there’s at least a path for this defense to play well. Kicker Drew Stevens is viable, but he’s my second favorite kicking option in this game.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Jonathan Taylor is the standout play at CPT on this slate. The Commanders are top 3 in EPA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs this season, but they haven’t really faced a good rushing attack. If you want to be a little different, Josh Downs and Marcus Mariota are good contrarian options.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
I have the same thoughts on FanDuel as I do on DraftKings, but I’m swapping the spots for Marcus Mariota and Josh Downs.
Prop Pick – Colts vs. Commanders
Season Record: 2-1
✅ Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown (-151)
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data