The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Patriots vs. Lions
For this Week 10 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 11/15 featuring the Patriots vs. Lions, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Patriots vs. Lions
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We have another game overseas on Sunday, this one in Munich, Germany.
The Patriots are coming off a bad loss to the Packers, giving up 45 points at home. They are 5-4 on the season with a point differential of +4. The Lions narrowly escaped with a win over the Dolphins last week and are now 6-2 on the season. Both of these teams have playoff aspirations, so a lot is on the line on Sunday morning.
This game features a 2.5-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Saturday, 11:00 AM ET)
Patriots
▪️ Ben Brown (G/C): Out (knee)
▪️ Carlton Davis III (CB): Out (knee)
▪️ TreVeyon Henderson (RB): Out (illness)
▪️ A.J. Brown (WR): Questionable (ankle/knee)
▪️ Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): Questionable (knee)
▪️ Kevin Byard III (S): Questionable (chest)
▪️ Reggie Gilliam (FB): Questionable (knee)
▪️ Cameron Latu (TE): Questionable (back)
▪️ Walter Rouse (OL): Questionable (concussion protocol)
▪️ Brenden Schooler (S): Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ Greg Van Roten (OL): Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ Charles Woods (CB): Questionable (hamstring)
Lions
▪️ Cade Mays (Center): Out (ankle)
▪️ Kerby Joseph (S): Out (knee)
▪️ DJ Reed (CB): Out (hip)
▪️ Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): Questionable (rib)
▪️ Sione Vaki (RB): Questionable (ankle)
New England Patriots Preview
Drake Maye got off to a slow start this season, but he’s been one of the top producers at quarterback since Week 4. In fact, he’s rattled off 6 straight games with at least 21 fantasy points. He offers rushing upside, and he’s capable of throwing for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns. We have no shortage of high-ceiling plays in this game, but Maye is one of the top targets at CPT and MVP. The Lions are dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Patriots’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 A.J. Brown (WR): 69.0% route part., 19.8% target share, 36.6% air-yards share, 13.1 XFPPG
🔹 DeMario Douglas (WR): 68.7% route part., 15.7% target share, 19.4% air-yards share, 10.6 XFPPG
🔹 Mack Hollins (WR): 59.8% route part., 15.2% target share, 24.6% air-yards share, 9.6 XFPPG
🔹 Hunter Henry (TE): 58.1% route part., 12.8% target share, 8.4% air-yards share, 8.5 XFPPG
🔹 Eli Raridon (TE): 37.3% route part., 9.6% target share, 9.5% air-yards share, 6.7 XFPPG
A.J. Brown has only played in 3 games this season and has yet to score double-digit fantasy points. He’s listed as questionable for this game, but Mike Vrabel said he feels pretty good about Brown’s chances of suiting up. If active, he makes for an interesting tournament play against a bad secondary. If Brown is out, DeMario Douglas, Mack Hollins, and Efton Chism III will all see an uptick in snaps and routes. The Lions are 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Hunter Henry hasn’t shown much of a ceiling this season, but he has been very consistent. That has never been his calling card, so it’s nice to see his production level out a bit on a weekly basis. Eli Raridon is slowly earning a bigger role in the offense. Despite running a route on only 37% of dropbacks, he’s seen 10% of the team’s targets and 10% of the team’s air yards. The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points of any team in football to tight ends.
TreVeyon Henderson is on injured reserve, and Rhamondre Stevenson is listed as questionable for this game. He was originally expected to miss some time, but he was able to log limited practices on Thursday and Friday. If he’s out, Corey Kiner and Lan Larison would lead this backfield. With the Lions being much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, I expect a pass-heavy game plan from the Patriots.
New England’s defense looked awful last week, but they still have a ton of talent. My biggest issue on this slate is their matchup against the Lions. Kicker Andy Borregales is firmly in play.
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Detroit Lions Preview
Jared Goff is coming off his two worst performances of the season. He scored 10 fantasy points against the Vikings and backed it up with 6 fantasy points against the Dolphins. He tends to play his best indoors, and with the exception of last week, the Patriots have a decent pass defense. Goff is viable thanks to the nature of Showdown slates, but he’s not on my radar at MVP or CPT. He doesn’t offer rushing upside, and if he has a big game through the air, one of his pass catchers will likely outscore him.
Lions’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 88.3% route part., 30.3% target share, 32.7% air-yards share, 19.9 XFPPG
🔹 Jameson Williams (WR): 84.9% route part., 16.4% target share, 34.6% air-yards share, 15.8 XFPPG
🔹 Sam LaPorta (TE): 78.9% route part., 16.1% target share, 13.5% air-yards share, 11.4 XFPPG
🔹 Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 58.9% route part., 6.9% target share, 13.1% air-yards share, 3.8 XFPPG
🔹 Brock Wright (TE): 26.4% route part., 2.2% target share, 0.8% air-yards share, 1.1 XFPPG
Amon-Ra St. Brown is officially listed as questionable, but he’s playing through the same injury he had before last week’s game. He was also able to practice on a limited basis on Friday. I expect him to be out there on Sunday morning. While Christian Gonzalez was burned by both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden last week, we still think of him as an excellent cover corner. With St. Brown running a lot of routes from the slot, he should avoid coverage from Gonzalez. Jameson Williams has been great over the last handful of games, but I think he’ll draw shadow coverage from Gonzalez. I much prefer St. Brown.
Isaac TeSlaa was expected to have a big role this season, but he has averaged a measly 4 fantasy points per game. Sam LaPorta has solid usage, boasting a 16% target share and a 14% air yards share this season. The matchup sets up much better for the wide receivers than the tight ends. New England has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to receivers and has allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off his worst fantasy outing of the season. Despite seeing 20 carries and scoring a touchdown, he only scored 16 fantasy points against the Dolphins. He didn’t record a single catch, which was very surprising. We shouldn’t let one week change our minds on the best running back in the NFL, especially since an off-week for him is a good week for most backs. The Patriots have been very tough on running backs (4th-fewest fantasy points allowed), but that hasn’t stopped Gibbs before. He’s my favorite target at both MVP and CPT.
The Lions don’t have a great defense, but they can generate pressure every now and then. We know Drake Maye isn’t afraid to make some mistakes. Detroit’s defense is viable in large-field tournaments. Kicker Jake Bates is viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are dominating ownership at CPT. I’m in lockstep with the field, as I view them as the top targets at the multiplier position. The Patriots will become a lot more appealing at CPT if A.J. Brown or Rhamondre Stevenson end up being out.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
We have a similar story at MVP on FanDuel. The only difference is that Drake Maye is projected for slightly more ownership than Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Prop Pick – Patriots vs. Lions
Season Record: 15-10
✅ Jameson Williams u58.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 10, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data