The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Seahawks
For this Week 7 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/25 featuring the Chiefs vs. Seahawks, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Chiefs vs. Seahawks
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I hope everyone had a great main slate in Week 7. We now turn the page to the Sunday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Seahawks. The Chiefs look as dominant as ever, as they have started the season 5-0 with a point differential of +57. They have had an easy schedule thus far, so tonight’s game could be their toughest test to date. The Seahawks are only 3-3 on the season, but they have a point differential of +26. They could easily be 5-1 based on how those games played out.
The Seahawks are favored by 3 points, and tonight’s game features a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Saturday, 5:00 PM ET)
▪️ WR Rashee Rice (KC) — Out (hamstring/knee)
▪️ WR Tyquan Thornton (KC) — Out (ankle)
▪️ RB Brashard Smith (KC) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ OL Jaylon Moore (KC) — Out (concussion)
▪️ CB L’Jarius Sneed (KC) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ RB Zach Charbonnet (SEA) — Out (knee)
▪️ LB Chazz Surratt (SEA) — Out (calf)
▪️ LB Drake Thomas (SEA) — Out (ankle)
▪️ QB Drew Lock (SEA) — Questionable (elbow)
▪️ S Nick Emmanwori (SEA) — Questionable (hip)
▪️ LB DeMarcus Lawrence (SEA) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ LB Uchenna Nwosu (SEA) — Questionable (hip)
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
It turns out an explosive running game will do great things for an offense. Patrick Mahomes has to be loving life right now, as he hasn’t had to carry this offense. His fantasy production has taken a hit, as he hasn’t been asked to drop back as many times as last season. He has been held under 17 fantasy points in each of the last 3 games. The good news is that this game script should lead to more dropbacks, as the Chiefs are 3-point underdogs on the road. The bad news is that the Seahawks have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Chiefs’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Xavier Worthy: 82% route part., 18% target share, 24% air-yards share, 10.8 XFPPG
🔹 Travis Kelce (TE): 71% route part., 16% target share, 18% air-yards share, 9.4 XFPPG
🔹 Andrew Armstrong: 69% route part., 7% target share, 17% air-yards share, 2.6 XFPPG
🔹 Jalen Royals: 38% route part., 7% target share, 7% air-yards share, 3.8 XFPPG
🔹 Noah Gray (TE): 35% route part., 7% target share, 8% air-yards share, 3.3 XFPPG
Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton are both out again this week, which means Xavier Worthy will serve as the WR1 in this offense. He caught all 7 of his targets for 73 yards last week against the Chargers. He has a low aDOT, but that’s actually good for his floor in DFS. It could be good for the matchup too, as the Seahawks don’t give up a lot of big plays in the passing game.
Jalen Royals saw an uptick in routes last week, but he only caught 2 passes for 24 yards. Andrew Armstrong, Cyrus Allen, and Justin Watson will all mix in at receiver as well. Travis Kelce has already had a great season, and now he should soak up a higher target share with Rice and Thornton out. Noah Gray could also see an uptick in snaps. The matchup isn’t great for any of the pass catchers, as the Seahawks are 2nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends.
The big story of tonight’s game is the return of Kenneth Walker III to Seattle. You have to think the Seahawks are missing him at this point, as he’s been the most dominant running back in football this season. He has averaged 28 fantasy points per game and leads the NFL in rushing yards above expectation. I expect him to be a major part of the game plan, especially since the Seahawks haven’t been as tough on running backs (24th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed).
Sam Darnold makes the occasional mistake, and the Chiefs have a stout defense, but I’m not sure I want to prioritize their D/ST on this slate. I do think the game sets up well for the kickers, so Harrison Butker stands out as a strong value play.
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Seattle Seahawks Preview
Sam Darnold has made costly mistakes this season, and he’s been held to under 15 fantasy points in each of his last 3 games. The Seahawks aren’t ready to hand the reins to Drew Lock yet, but Darnold’s play has certainly been concerning. We’ll see if he can turn it around in a home matchup against the Chiefs, who are 24th in EPA allowed per dropback this season. The Chiefs haven’t given up a ton of fantasy points to quarterbacks, but they haven’t faced many good ones. Darnold is a strong option on this slate, but I plan to look elsewhere at MVP and CPT.
Seahawks’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 86% route part., 32% target share, 51% air-yards share, 23.1 XFPPG
🔹 AJ Barner (TE): 72% route part., 12% target share, 4% air-yards share, 7.5 XFPPG
🔹 Cooper Kupp: 71% route part., 12% target share, 15% air-yards share, 7.9 XFPPG
🔹 Rashid Shaheed: 58% route part., 13% target share, 21% air-yards share, 7.5 XFPPG
🔹 Tory Horton: 24% route part., 5% target share, 7% air-yards share, 3.0 XFPPG
Despite shaky play from Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is still having a massive season. He has averaged 28 fantasy points per game with a 32% target share and a 51% air yards share. He’s a good bet for double-digit targets against the Chiefs, who no longer have Trent McDuffie (not that we are worried about cornerback matchups for JSN). Cooper Kupp has seen a 12% target share and a 15% air yards share, while Rashid Shaheed has seen a 21% air yards share. If choosing between them, Kupp offers the higher floor, while Shaheed offers the higher ceiling.
AJ Barner has not been running routes downfield (4% air yards share), but he has seen 12% of the team’s targets. He has run a route on 72% of dropbacks this season, so he’s going to be on the field. The matchup sets up extremely well for him, as the Chiefs are 1st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Zach Charbonnet is nearing a return, but he has been ruled out of tonight’s game. With Jadarian Price on injured reserve, Emanuel Wilson will be the feature back for another week. While he’s had some decent fantasy outings this season, they have been bolstered by touchdowns. He has averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in each of the last 3 games. The matchup is interesting, as the Chiefs are dead last in EPA against the run this season.
While I love Seattle’s defense in general, the Chiefs aren’t a team that is going to make a bunch of mistakes. I would only look to the Seahawks’ defense if you are building 5+ lineups. Kicker Jason Myers is viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
This is an extremely rare Showdown slate where both quarterbacks are projected for less than 10% ownership at CPT. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III are soaking up nearly 50% of the combined ownership.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold are a little more popular at MVP on FanDuel, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III are by far the players with the highest projected ownership. My favorite off-the-board play at MVP is AJ Barner.
Prop Pick – Chiefs vs. Seahawks
Season Record: 8-7
✅ AJ Barner o23.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 7, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data