The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Lions vs. Panthers
For this Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/4 featuring the Lions vs. Panthers, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Lions vs. Panthers
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By the time you are reading this, I hope that we are all counting our winnings from the main slate. The Lions are 2-1 to start the season and have provided some of the best game environments for fantasy production. They have scored 93 points and have allowed 95 points. The Panthers are 1-2 through their first 3 games, but they have a positive point differential and are still tied for the division lead.
Given how good these offenses have looked and how bad these defenses have looked, we can expect some fireworks tonight. This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 50.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Sunday, 11:30 AM ET)
▪️ WR Jalen Coker (CAR) — Questionable (quad)
▪️ WR Xavier Legette (CAR) — Out (knee)
▪️ RB Jonathon Brooks(CAR) — Out (core)
▪️ G Damien Lewis (CAR) — Out (elbow)
▪️ CB Jaycee Horn (CAR) — Out (quad)
▪️ CB Mike Jackson (CAR) — Out (groin)
▪️ OLB Nic Scourton (CAR) — Out (torn ACL)
▪️ NT Lee Hunter (CAR) — Questionable (foot)
▪️ RT Monroe Freeling (CAR) — Questionable
▪️ OL Ben Bartch (DET) — Out (foot)
▪️ CB D.J. Reed (DET) — Questionable (rib)
Detroit Lions Preview
We are dealing with a sample size of only 3 games, but Jared Goff is on pace to have his best fantasy season ever. The talent has always been there, and he has elite weapons to throw the ball to, but the Lions have always been a run-first team. They can’t really afford to do that anymore, as they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. This makes them stay aggressive all game, which has been great news for Goff’s production. He doesn’t offer rushing upside, so I prefer using him at UTIL/FLEX rather than CPT/MVP, but he has one of the highest raw projections on the slate.
Lions’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Amon-Ra St. Brown: 90% route , 30 target , 36 air yards %, 21.1 XFPPG
🔹 Jameson Williams: 88% route , 15 target , 29 air yards %, 13.8 XFPPG
🔹 Sam LaPorta: 84% route , 17 target , 13 air yards %, 12.8 XFPPG
🔹 Isaac TeSlaa: 68% route , 7 target , 14 air yards %, 4.2 XFPPG
🔹 Brock Wright: 24% route , 3 target , 1 air yards %, 1.7 XFPPG
Amon-Ra St. Brown is off to a huge start this season. He has a 30% target share and a 36% air yards share, and he has averaged 21 expected fantasy points per game (XFPPG). He sees a nice mix of short and deep targets, which gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. Jameson Williams has underwhelmed after the Lions said they would feature him more this season, but I’m not ready to give up on him yet. He still has 29% of the team’s air yards, and his XFPPG is much higher than his actual production. He should have some positive regression coming his way. I love playing him in tournaments tonight, especially with Jaycee Horn out for the Panthers.
Isaac TeSlaa has been the clear WR3 for the Lions, running a route on 68% of dropbacks. He hasn’t seen many targets, but he’s cheap and should be on the field. Sam LaPorta doesn’t have the highest target share, but he’s a big threat in the red zone and is the 2nd-most reliable pass catcher on the roster at the moment. From a matchup standpoint, the Panthers are 2nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 18th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been close to a must-play in the first 3 games of the season. After averaging 33 fantasy points and being the focal point of the offense, there is no reason to fade him on this Showdown slate. The matchup also sets up well for him, as the Panthers have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to running backs this season. He’s the easy click at CPT and MVP, but he will be very popular.
The Lions’ defense has struggled to stop opposing offenses, as their secondary is missing some key players. A fluke play could always turn into a defensive score, but I don’t plan to have any exposure to them on this slate. Kicker Jake Bates is a fine option to round out lineups.
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Carolina Panthers Preview
Bryce Young played well in the second half of last season and has carried that over into this season. Through the first 3 games, he has averaged 24 fantasy points per game. He is consistently taking shots downfield, although he could be without one of his top weapons in Jalen Coker tonight. The crazy part is that his production has been almost exclusively through the air. He has 3 rushing attempts for 16 yards and a touchdown. We saw him scramble more last season, so there’s some rushing upside hiding in there as well. He should have no problem torching this awful Lions’ secondary.
Panthers’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Tetairoa McMillan: 91% route , 18 target , 29 air yards %, 9.9 XFPPG
🔹 Darren Waller: 50% route , 11 target , 9 air yards %, 9.6 XFPPG
🔹 Brycen Tremayne: 35% route , 5 target , 11 air yards %, 3.7 XFPPG
🔹 John Metchie III: 36% route , 6 target , 6 air yards %, 5.0 XFPPG
🔹 Tommy Tremble: 41% route , 7 target , 6 air yards %, 4.5 XFPPG
Coker is officially listed as questionable, but Adam Schefter reports that he is unlikely to play. He’s currently not in the projections, so let’s assume that he’s going to be out for now. Tetairoa McMillan already has solid usage (18% target share, 29% air yards share), so he should cook if Coker ends up being out. Once again, the Lions are missing a ton of key players in the secondary and have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to wide receivers through the first 3 games.
Xavier Legette has been ruled out, which means Brycen Tremayne, John Metchie III, and David Moore will likely be the other active receivers. Tremayne and Metchie are both cheap and project well on a per-dollar basis. Darren Waller doesn’t play a ton of snaps, but he’s a good target earner when on the field. He offers more upside than Tommy Tremble, although it’s worth noting that both could see an uptick in targets if Coker is out.
Jonathon Brooks is out again, which means Chuba Hubbard should be the feature back against the Lions, who are 31st in EPA against the run this season. With Coker likely out as well, we could see a run-heavier game plan for Carolina, at least early on. Hubbard has quietly had a nice season and has caught all 9 of his targets through the first 3 games. He could fly under the radar with all of the star power in tonight’s game.
The Panthers haven’t generated much pressure this season and are facing one of the most lethal offenses in the league. I’m happy to exclude them from my player pool. I worry about kicker Ryan Fitzgerald, as I’m not sure the Panthers will settle for field goals if they fall behind early.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs is projected for around 40% at CPT, which is one of the highest marks I have ever seen on a Showdown slate. It’s hard seeing him failing at this point, but the massive ownership does bring in other interesting options for tournaments. If you are looking to get away from the Gibbs chalk, Tetairoa McMillan, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chuba Hubbard all offer nice upside. This is also a decent slate to punt the multiplier spot (with one of the Panthers’ cheap pass catchers), as it allows you to stack the rest of your lineup.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
We have a similar story on FanDuel, as Jahmyr Gibbs is projected for 38% ownership at MVP. Once again, he’s as solid of a play as you are going to find on this slate. He’s the easy click at the multiplier spot. However, there are certainly ways to get different in tournaments. I think it’s a great spot for Tetairoa McMillan, as Jalen Coker is likely out, the Lions’ secondary is shorthanded, and the game script could lead to a lot of passing volume for the Lions.
Prop Pick – Lions vs. Panthers
Season Record: 3-1
✅ Tetairoa McMillan o4.5 Receptions (-171 FanDuel)
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data