The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Commanders vs. Giants
For this Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup on 11/12 featuring the Commanders vs. Giants, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Commanders vs. Giants
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Happy Thursday and happy Week 10!
We have an NFC East battle on tap tonight between the Giants and Commanders. The first season with John Harbaugh at the helm should already be considered a success. The Giants are 5-2-1 and currently sit atop the division. The Commanders are 2-5-1, but they could cut New York’s division lead to 2 games with a win tonight.
While this doesn’t look like the most exciting game on paper, it’s expected to be competitive. The Giants are 2.5-point favorites, and the game has a 40.5-point total.
We have now hit 6 straight player prop picks on these primetime games. Don’t miss tonight’s pick at the bottom of the page.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 10:00 AM ET)
▪️ Colson Yankoff (TE): Out (knee)
▪️ Lucas Patrick ( C): Out (concussion)
▪️ Malik Harrison (LB): Questionable (groin)
Washington Commanders Preview
The Commanders are 20th in points per game this season, yet Jayden Daniels has still been very productive in fantasy football. He has averaged 20 fantasy points per game. Josh Allen is the only quarterback in football who is averaging more rushing fantasy points per game, which is important to note. Daniels can have a big fantasy outing without bringing any of his pass catchers with him. He’s one of the top MVP and CPT targets on the slate. I like using him at the multiplier position and stacking the Giants with the rest of the lineup.
Commanders’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Chig Okonkwo (TE): 69% route part., 14% target share, 13% air-yards share, 7.5 XFPPG
🔹 Stefon Diggs: 67% route part., 20% target share, 22% air-yards share, 11.4 XFPPG
🔹 Antonio Williams: 61% route part., 14% target share, 19% air-yards share, 8.3 XFPPG
🔹 Treylon Burks: 48% route part., 9% target share, 18% air-yards share, 7.1 XFPPG
🔹 Van Jefferson: 24% route part., 8% target share, 13% air-yards share, 4.4 XFPPG
Terry McLaurin is on injured reserve, but Treylon Burks is expected back for the Commanders this week. Stefon Diggs has the highest target and air yards shares of any active pass catcher on the roster, but he doesn’t offer the highest floor. He’s been held under 10 fantasy points in 3 of the last 5 games. Antonio Williams is the top outside receiver with McLaurin out, and he has seen 19% of the team’s air yards.
Burks doesn’t command as many targets as Diggs or Williams, but he does see the occasional deep target, which keeps him in the tournament player pool. With Burks back, Van Jefferson will have a limited role. Chig Okonkwo has run a route on 69% of dropbacks this season and has respectable target and air yards shares. As far as the matchup, the Giants are 5th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 11th to tight ends.
With Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols out, Rachaad White has become the feature back for the Commanders. In the last 2 games, he has played on 51% of the snaps and has turned 22 touches into 129 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. His best path to success tonight is through the passing game. Austin Ekeler will mix in as well and actually projects better on a per-dollar basis. The Giants are 11th in EPA against the run and 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Washington’s defense has struggled all season. While a bad decision from J.J. McCarthy could lead to a defensive score, I’m not prioritizing a bad defense on the road. With the game having such a low total, kicking points could be more valuable. Drew Stevens is viable in all formats.
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New York Giants Preview
J.J. McCarthy looked good in a second-half garbage-time appearance against the Saints, but he has struggled in his first two full starts with the Giants. He also left last week’s game with a hip injury, so he doesn’t come without risk tonight. Now, this is a Showdown slate that is expected to be low scoring, so quarterback production will likely be needed. The matchup is elite, as the Commanders are dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Giants’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Malik Nabers: 86% route part., 29% target share, 36% air-yards share, 19.7 XFPPG
🔹 Isaiah Likely (TE): 82% route part., 25% target share, 22% air-yards share, 13.9 XFPPG
🔹 Malachi Fields: 69% route part., 12% target share, 17% air-yards share, 6.3 XFPPG
🔹 Darnell Mooney: 65% route part., 9% target share, 15% air-yards share, 5.0 XFPPG
🔹 Theo Johnson (TE): 31% route part., 5% target share, 5% air-yards share, 2.1 XFPPG
Malik Nabers has some of the best usage metrics in football. Granted, they come in a below-average offense, but they are still elite. He boasts a 29% target share and a 36% air yards share. He topped 100 yards with McCarthy under center against the Saints and against the Texans, so there’s plenty of upside here. I would argue that his ceiling is much higher than McCarthy’s, making him the preferred choice at MVP and CPT.
Malachi Fields and Darnell Mooney will round out three-receiver sets, although neither boasts a ton of DFS appeal. They have target shares of 12% and 9% in a bad passing offense. Isaiah Likely has had a few ceiling games this season, but he’s been quiet in the last 2 games with McCarthy at quarterback. The matchup is solid for all of the pass catchers, as the Commanders are 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 31st to tight ends.
Devin Singletary had a performance that is truly hard to replicate last week. He had 23 touches and 39 yards from scrimmage. Efficiency is certainly not his strong suit at this stage of his career. Luckily for the Giants, Cam Skattebo will be back this week. We’ll likely see a timeshare tonight, with Skattebo having a few more high-value touches than Singletary. The matchup is mediocre, as the Commanders are 22nd in EPA against the run and 13th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Giants have generated 12 turnovers this season, while the Commanders have committed 10 turnovers already. New York’s defense is viable tonight, even though clicking on them comes with a slightly nauseous feeling. Kicker Dominic Zvada is viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
The way I see it, there are two obvious choices at CPT tonight — Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers. They project to be the highest-owned, but I don’t think they are garnering enough ownership. They are easily my favorite plays at the multiplier spot.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
It’s the same story at MVP on FanDuel. And I have the same top three.
Prop Pick – Commanders vs. Giants
Season Record: 15-9
✅ Malik Nabers o66.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 10, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data