The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Falcons vs. Packers
For this Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup on 9/24 featuring the Falcons vs. Packers, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Falcons vs. Packers
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We are back for another Showdown slate. Thursday is set to bring us the Falcons vs. Packers.
The Falcons are off to a rough start, as they are 0-2 with a league-worst point differential of -38. They are hoping a change at quarterback can change their fortunes moving forward. The good news is that no team in the NFC South is likely to run away with the division, so their season is far from over. The Packers picked up a nice comeback win over the Jets last week to improve their record to 1-1 on the season. The defense has been a major issue, as they have already allowed 56 points through the first 2 games.
Tonight’s game features a 6.5-point spread and a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 12:00 PM ET)
▪️ WR Jayden Reed (GB) — Out (neck)
▪️ G Aaron Banks (GB) — Out (knee/toe)
▪️ T Zach Bako-Bewele (GB) — Out (knee)
▪️ DT Warren Brinson (GB) — Out (calf)
▪️ DT Anthony Campbell (GB) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ DT Javon Hargrave (GB) — Questionable (knee/concussion)
▪️ DE Micah Parsons (GB) — Out (knee)
▪️ DE Samson Ebukam (ATL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ CB A.J. Terrell (ATL) — Out (groin)
▪️ CB Billy Bowman Jr. (ATL) — Doubtful (Achilles)
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Cooper Rush wasn’t expected to start the first 2 games of the season, but injuries to Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa thrust him into action. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Rush played like a 3rd-stringer, and the team wasn’t very competitive. Penix is finally healthy enough to take over as the signal caller, so he’ll be under center tonight. He played fairly well last season, throwing for 1,982 yards and 9 touchdowns.
While Penix is viable due to the nature of Showdown slates, he’s not on my radar for CPT and MVP. He offers very little rushing upside, as he only had 70 rushing yards in 9 games last season. I will note that his matchup against the Packers is a good one. Micah Parsons and Warren Brinson are both out for Green Bay, while Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell are both questionable. The Packers have already given up 56 points through the first 2 games of the season.
Falcons’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Drake London (ATL): 69% route participation, 19% target share, 18% air yards share
🔹 Jahan Dotson (ATL): 72% route participation, 15% target share, 47% air yards share
🔹 Kyle Pitts (ATL): 57% route participation, 7% target share, 26% air yards share
🔹 Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL): 43% route participation, 7% target share, 6% air yards share
🔹 Austin Hooper (ATL): 34% route participation, 7% target share, 6% air yards share
Drake London and Jahan Dotson are the clear WR1 and WR2 in this offense, even though their box scores weren’t particularly impressive in the first 2 games of the season. An upgrade at quarterback should help, especially since Penix is a pocket passer who doesn’t mind taking shots downfield. In 9 games with Penix under center last season, London averaged 21.4 fantasy points (DK scoring) per game, which was one of the best marks of any receiver in football. This is a great spot to buy low on London. While Dotson didn’t show much during his time with the Eagles, he did have 47% of the team’s air yards in Weeks 1 and 2.
Olamide Zaccheaus hasn’t had a huge role through the first 2 games, but he ran a route on 43% of dropbacks. At $2,000 on DraftKings, he’s a decent salary-saver in tournaments. While London saw a major boost in production with Penix under center last season, Kyle Pitts averaged only 9.1 fantasy points per game. That was significantly lower than the 16.6 fantasy points he averaged in the games without Penix. On top of that, Austin Hooper is now in the mix. Pitts might end up being my biggest fade of the slate.
Bijan Robinson was one of the many chalky players who busted in Week 2. I was one of many who thought if he could get there on the road against the Steelers with a 3rd-string quarterback, then he should have no problem racking up stats at home against the Panthers. However, he fell victim to the systemic risk with Rush as the starting quarterback. His outlook improves this week with Penix back from injury. He averaged 3 more fantasy points per game with Penix under center last season, and his work in the receiving game saw a visible uptick. I generally don’t target backup running backs on Showdown slates, and Brian Robinson Jr. isn’t very cheap anyway.
The Falcons don’t have a great defense to begin with, and now they’ll be without their best cornerback in A.J. Terrell. They are an easy avoid on the road against the Packers. Nick Folk is more reliable than previous kickers on the Falcons, but he’s a secondary option on this slate.
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Green Bay Packers Preview
The main issue with Jordan Love in DFS over the years has been that the Packers have played with a lot of leads and have leaned heavily on the running game. With a bad defense this season, they can’t really do that anymore. This has led to more passing volume in the first 2 games, and Love has averaged a healthy 19.1 fantasy points per game. He draws a tremendous matchup against the Falcons, who just gave up a ceiling game to Bryce Young at home. Even though the game features a 6.5-point spread, I feel confident in Atlanta’s ability to be competitive in this game with Penix under center. Love doesn’t offer much rushing upside, but he’s one of the best UTIL/FLEX options on the slate.
Packers’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Matthew Golden (GB): 85% route participation, 25% target share, 30% air yards share
🔹 Christian Watson (GB): 81% route participation, 25% target share, 35% air yards share
🔹 Tucker Kraft (GB): 59% route participation, 13% target share, 12% air yards share
🔹 Jayden Reed (GB): 40% route participation, 11% target share, 6% air yards share
🔹 Skyy Moore (GB): 24% route participation, 6% target share, 9% air yards share
The Packers wide receiver room has given me as many headaches as any in the NFL over the last few seasons. The problem has been two-fold — they have spread targets around, and they have given a ton of receivers significant roles in the offense. Luckily, that’s not an issue at the moment. Romeo Doubs is now in New England, and Jayden Reed has been ruled out of this game. Matthew Golden and Christian Watson have both run a route on over 80% of dropbacks this season, and both have a 25% target share. They are both excellent options tonight and project similarly on a per-dollar basis. They are two of my favorite CPT plays on the slate.
With Reed out, Skyy Moore will spend a lot of time in the slot. He doesn’t project particularly well, but he’s cheap and should be on the field a decent amount. He’s one of my favorite punts tonight. Bo Melton and J. Michael Sturdivant will also see some snaps at wide receiver. Tucker Kraft isn’t back to an every-down player just yet, but he has run a route on 59% of dropbacks and has seen a 13% target share in the first 2 games of the season. He’s shown massive upside in this offense, which makes him one of the more appealing tournament plays. Jonnu Smith will serve as the TE2 and could always find his way into the optimal lineup with a touchdown.
The big concern with MarShawn Lloyd has been the expected volume. He wasn’t a bell-cow running back at any point of his college career, so many were concerned about what his usage would look like as the RB1 with Josh Jacobs out. The concerns proved fruitful, as he’s only played on 38% of the snaps in the first 2 games of the season. Chris Brooks has actually played more snaps and has run more routes than Lloyd. We also saw Kaleb Johnson get 8 carries last week. This is looking like a 3-man backfield for now, which is a stay-away for me, even in a nice matchup on a Showdown slate.
The Packers have not played great defense to start the season and are still without Micah Parsons. They could also be missing a couple of defensive linemen, so we’ll have to keep an eye on those injuries leading up to lock. I like the Packers defense more than the Falcons defense, but that’s not saying much. Kicker Trey Smack is one of the safest point-per-dollar options on the board. I like his chances of making multiple field goals in this one.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
While these aren’t the most entertaining teams in the NFL, this is a fun slate because there are several ways you can go at CPT. For the Falcons, Bijan Robinson and Drake London both offer slate-breaking upside. They have both been excellent with Michael Penix Jr. under center. For the Packers, you can make a strong case for Jordan Love, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft. Robinson is projected for the most ownership, followed by Love and the two main Packers receivers.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
My strategy on FanDuel is a little different, as wide receiver production isn’t worth as much as it is on DraftKings. Over here, I am prioritizing Robinson and Love. They are the chalk plays at MVP, as they are both projected for over 20% ownership.
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data