The NFL DFS Grind Down: Friday Afternoon Football - Bears vs. Eagles
For this Week 13 Friday Afternoon Football matchup on 11/28 featuring the Bears vs. Eagles, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Bears vs. Eagles
We have a rare Friday game on the schedule this week, which means we get a rare Friday edition of the NFL Grind Down. The Bears are somehow 8-3 in the standings, despite having a negative point differential (-3) on the season. It feels like smoke and mirrors, but they keep winning football games. The Eagles are coming off a bad loss against the Cowboys in a game where they led 21-0 at one point. They are still winning the NFC East, but the Rams now have the best record in the NFC.
This game features a 7-point spread and a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Friday)
None
Chicago Bears Preview
Caleb Williams will make several highlight reel-worthy plays every week, but he’ll also make a few bad mistakes in the process. Thanks to his rushing upside, he’s been a solid fantasy producer this season. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 6 of 11 games. A matchup against the Eagles is about as mediocre as you’ll find. Philadelphia is close to the league average in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Williams looks good in this spot, but he’s not my favorite MVP/CPT target.
Chicago’s wideout usage (2025):
- Rome Odunze: 81% route participation, 22% target share, 40% air yards share
- DJ Moore: 78% route participation, 15% target share, 21% air yards share
- Luther Burden: 33% route participation, 9% target share, 8% air yards share
- Colston Loveland: 54% route participation, 12% target share, 12% air yards share
Rome Odunze got off to a great start this season, averaging over 20 fantasy points in the first 4 games. Since then, it’s been a real struggle. He has been held under 10 fantasy points in 5 of the last 7 games. His underlying usage metrics are enticing, but we are starting to see more from DJ Moore and Luther Burden. Moore has topped 20 fantasy points in 2 of the last 4 games, while Burden has seen his route participation jump up to 57% over the last 2 games. Burden looks like a nice value play on this slate.
Colston Loveland is technically the TE1 in Chicago, but Cole Kmet has a very similar role. Over the last 2 games, they have each run a route on more than half of the dropbacks. Loveland is a better target earner, but Kmet is significantly cheaper. As far as the matchup goes for Chicago’s wideouts, the Eagles are 16th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
In the last 3 games, we’ve seen close to a 50/50 split in Chicago’s backfield. D’Andre Swift has played on 53% of the snaps and has handled 48 touches, while Kyle Monangai has played on 43% of the snaps and has handled 32 touches. It should be tough sledding for the running game, as the Eagles are 7th in PFF’s grades against the run and 3rd in EPA against the run. Swift and Monangai are best suited for large-field tournaments.
The Bears have one of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL, and they are large underdogs on the road against an offense that doesn’t turn the ball over. Their defense is an easy fade on this slate. I also worry about kicker Cairo Santos, as the Bears might not be able to settle for field goals in this one.
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Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Jalen Hurts hasn’t had a great season statistically, but he’s still one of the most consistent fantasy producers at quarterback. He has averaged 22 fantasy points per game and has topped 24 fantasy points in 5 of 11 games. The rushing upside is always a bonus, and his ability to score touchdowns on the ground put him in consideration for MVP and CPT. He draws a favorable matchup against the Bears, who have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Philly’s wideout usage (2025):
- A.J. Brown: 91% route participation, 26% target share, 34% air yards share
- DeVonta Smith: 95% route participation, 26% target share, 38% air yards share
- Jahan Dotson: 66% route participation, 6% target share, 10% air yards share
- Dallas Goedert: 81% route participation, 18% target share, 16% air yards share
Choosing between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this season has been like picking between a doughnut and a cookie. They are both solid options, but sometimes one is way better than the other. Sometimes, the hot sign is on at Krispy Kreme. Other times, the doughnut is stale. I’m not sure where I’m going with this, but basically, it’s very tough to know which of these receivers is going to have a big game in this low-volume passing attack. They have nearly identical underlying usage metrics. Both are viable against the Bears, who are 21st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Jahan Dotson is the WR3 for the Eagles, which is a great role for exercise but not for fantasy production. He’s only seen 6% of the team’s targets this season. Dallas Goedert tends to get overlooked on these slates because everyone is looking to spend up on Hurts and the other wideouts. Goedert has an 18% target share on the season and gets to face the Bears, who are 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Saquon Barkley has not looked like the same running back who broke records last season. He hasn’t been nearly as efficient (3.7 yards per carry), and he hasn’t scored many touchdowns (6). We keep saying each week is the “get-right spot” for him, but it never seems to come to fruition. I will note that he draws a nice matchup against the Bears, who are 25th in PFF’s grades against the run and 24th in EPA against the run. Will Shipley and Tank Bigsby will split backup duty.
The Eagles have one of the highest pressure rates in the league, and they are facing a quarterback who takes a lot of sacks. It could also be a positive game script for the defense. They are viable in tournaments. Kicker Jake Elliott has only had 2 games with more than 1 field goal made this season, but this does look like a good spot for him on paper.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The Eagles are always a tough team for Showdown slates because they have four really expensive options and very few value plays. Their defense and kicker are more viable than usual, but it is more difficult to make lineups that you feel really good about for this game. In terms of lineup priority, my favorite plays of the slates are the quarterbacks. They both have rushing upside, and quarterbacks are always strong options in Showdown. I’ll be locking in both in every lineup, and most lineups will come with one of those two at MVP/CPT.
Bears vs. Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 21.70 | $11,600 | 1.87 | $13,000 | 1.67 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 19.83 | $10,600 | 1.87 | $12,200 | 1.63 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 16.08 | $10,800 | 1.49 | $12,600 | 1.28 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 14.19 | $9,600 | 1.48 | $11,600 | 1.22 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 12.13 | $8,600 | 1.41 | $10,200 | 1.19 |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 11.65 | $9,000 | 1.29 | $9,400 | 1.24 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 10.58 | $5,200 | 2.03 | $7,000 | 1.51 |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 9.81 | $6,600 | 1.49 | $8,600 | 1.14 |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | 8.63 | $4,400 | 1.96 | $5,800 | 1.49 |
| Luther Burden | CHI | WR | 8.54 | $3,800 | 2.25 | $4,200 | 2.03 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 8.27 | $8,000 | 1.03 | $7,600 | 1.09 |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB | 8.12 | $5,600 | 1.45 | $8,200 | 0.99 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 7.72 | $4,800 | 1.61 | $6,200 | 1.25 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.64 | $5,000 | 1.53 | $6,600 | 1.16 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 7.43 | $4,000 | 1.86 | $6,800 | 1.09 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 4.98 | $3,600 | 1.38 | $6,400 | 0.78 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 4.25 | $2,400 | 1.77 | $3,800 | 1.12 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 3.00 | $3,200 | 0.94 | $2,800 | 1.07 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | CHI | WR | 2.90 | $3,000 | 0.97 | $5,200 | 0.56 |
| Tank Bigsby | PHI | RB | 2.36 | $2,000 | 1.18 | $4,600 | 0.51 |
| Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | 1.00 | $1,600 | 0.63 | $1,800 | 0.56 |
Bears vs. Eagles Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 16-19
D’Andre Swift less than 44.5 rushing yards (1.71x) – Sleeper Fantasy
There are a few reasons I like this in Pick’em. For starters, Kyle Monangai has taken on a bigger role in recent weeks. It has essentially been a 55/45 split in favor of Swift. The second reason is that the Eagles are elite against the run, ranking 7th in PFF’s grades against the run and 3rd in EPA against the run. And finally, the Bears are sizable underdogs on the road. There’s a good chance they will be forced to air it out more in the second half.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus