The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Dolphins vs. Steelers
For this Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup on 12/15 featuring the Dolphins vs. Steelers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Dolphins vs. Steelers
Most of Week 15 is officially in the books, but we still have the Monday Night Football game to look forward to. Unlike the Sunday night game, this one could have real playoff implications. The Dolphins have won 4 games in a row and can climb back to .500 with a win. Their playoff odds currently sit at less than 1%, but they are technically still alive. The Steelers are only 7-6 on the season, but they currently lead the NFC North and control their own destiny in the last 4 weeks of the season.
It’s going to be cold (20 degrees), but we shouldn’t have to worry about wind or precipitation. The game has a 3-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
None
Miami Dolphins Preview
The Dolphins have been winning, but it hasn’t been thanks to impressive numbers from Tua Tagovailoa. In each of the last 5 games, he has failed to score more than 13 fantasy points. We typically like to lock in quarterbacks on Showdown slates, but that’s because they generally have a high floor/ceiling combo. I’m not sure that’s the case with Tagovailoa at the moment. He has no rushing upside, and the Dolphins have attempted fewer than 25 passes in 4 straight games. The one positive is that the Steelers have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Miami’s wideout usage (2025):
- Jaylen Waddle: 77% route participation, 23% target share, 45% air-yards share
- Malik Washington: 62% route participation, 14% target share, 10% air-yards share
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 40% route participation, 5% target share, 4% air-yards share
- Darren Waller: 53% route participation, 11% target share, 21% air-yards share
Jaylen Waddle has dominated the targets and air yards ever since Tyreek Hill went down with his injury, but there haven’t been a ton of targets and air yards to go around in this offense. With that said, they might have to air it out a little more this week, as they are 3-point underdogs on the road. This is a solid matchup, as the Steelers have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will round out three-receiver sets. Washington has had higher usage and has a higher projection, but NWI is significantly cheaper. Darren Waller is essentially the 2nd-best wideout on the Dolphins. He earns a lot of targets when he’s on the field and has seen a 21% air yards share this season. The Steelers have also given up the 5th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Greg Dulcich is a sneaky punt, as he has caught all 5 of his targets for 65 yards in the last 2 games.
Along with the defense, De’Von Achane has been a key reason why the Dolphins have won 4 games in a row. During that stretch, he has averaged 157 yards from scrimmage while scoring a total of 4 touchdowns. Given the lack of firepower in these two offenses, Achane will likely be the most popular target at MVP and CPT. The Steelers have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs, but they are 27th in EPA against the run. Jaylen Wright is coming off his best game of the season and may have earned a few more touches per game moving forward. The problem is that he was priced up just in case Achane was going to be out.
The Dolphins have played great defense during their winning streak, but they are 32nd in PFF’s pass rush grades. I’d rather target kicker Riley Patterson, who has made at least 2 field goals in 8 of his last 9 games.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Aaron Rodgers has flashed a little bit of upside this season (3 games with 30+ fantasy points), but much like Tua Tagovailoa, he doesn’t have much of a floor. He’s been held under 10 fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 games. The Dolphins are a nice matchup on paper, ranking 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I like Rodgers more than Tua, and both are viable, but they aren’t the sure-fire plays that we usually have at quarterback on Showdown slates.
Pittsburgh’s wideout usage (2025):
- DK Metcalf: 87% route participation, 22% target share, 42% air-yards share
- Adam Thielen: 29% route participation, 5% target share, 5% air-yards share
- Calvin Austin: 64% route participation, 14% target share, 26% air-yards share
- Jonnu Smith: 54% route participation, 11% target share, 9% air-yards share
DK Metcalf is the clear alpha in this passing attack, racking up a 22% target share and a 42% air yards share this season. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season, where he caught 7 of 12 targets for 148 yards against the Ravens. The Dolphins present a tough matchup, as they have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Calvin Austin is the clear WR2 in the offense, while Adam Thielen mans the slot on around 30% of the snaps.
The Steelers love to use two-tight-end sets, which is good news for their matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to the position. Darnell Washington is a mammoth of a human being and projects the best of the three tight ends, but I’ll note that Pat Freiermuth had the highest route participation (57%) last week. With this being a good matchup, I expect more 12 personnel than 11 personnel. If that happens, it’ll be good for the tight ends and bad for Thielen.
There was a point earlier in the season where Jaylen Warren looked like the clear RB1 for the Steelers, but he has played on only 51% of the snaps over the last 3 games with 11, 12, and 18 touches. During that same stretch, Kenneth Gainwell has played on 49% of the snaps with 10, 7, and 16 touches. Warren has gotten more carries, while Gainwell has gotten more targets. Both are intriguing, depending on how you think the game will play out. The Dolphins have been middling against the run this season.
The Steelers do not have a great defense anymore. However, if they can slow down the running game of the Dolphins or jump out to an early lead, I could see them generating some sacks and turnovers. Kicker Chris Boswell is viable, as kicking points could be more valuable in what should be a low-scoring game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The only player that we should have full confidence in here is De’Von Achane. He’s single-handedly carried this Dolphins’ offense over the last 4 games. Both quarterbacks are viable, but they are far from must-plays. It’s a good spot for Miami’s wideouts, but their fantasy production hinges on the play of Tua Tagovailoa. For the Steelers, I’ll likely have at least one of their running backs and at least one of their tight ends in each lineup. The two kicker lineups are also viable here, as both teams settle for a lot of field goals, and kicking points could be more valuable in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.
Dolphins vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 18.48 | $12,800 | 1.44 | $13,400 | 1.38 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 15.50 | $10,800 | 1.44 | $9,800 | 1.58 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 15.15 | $9,800 | 1.55 | $11,800 | 1.28 |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 14.53 | $9,400 | 1.55 | $12,600 | 1.15 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 13.60 | $9,000 | 1.51 | $10,600 | 1.28 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 12.46 | $9,600 | 1.30 | $11,200 | 1.11 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 11.87 | $7,000 | 1.70 | $8,800 | 1.35 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 8.69 | $5,400 | 1.61 | $6,800 | 1.28 |
| Darren Waller | MIA | TE | 8.66 | $4,400 | 1.97 | $7,000 | 1.24 |
| Riley Patterson | MIA | K | 7.40 | $5,000 | 1.48 | $6,600 | 1.12 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 6.93 | $4,000 | 1.73 | $6,400 | 1.08 |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 6.92 | $5,800 | 1.19 | $8,200 | 0.84 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 5.58 | $3,600 | 1.55 | $6,200 | 0.90 |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | RB | 5.06 | $6,800 | 0.74 | $7,400 | 0.68 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 4.80 | $2,600 | 1.85 | $4,800 | 1.00 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | PIT | WR | 4.16 | $2,200 | 1.89 | $1,000 | 4.16 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 3.99 | $3,000 | 1.33 | $5,400 | 0.74 |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 3.92 | $2,800 | 1.40 | $3,800 | 1.03 |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | 3.91 | $1,600 | 2.44 | $4,400 | 0.89 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 3.91 | $3,800 | 1.03 | $7,600 | 0.51 |
| Adam Thielen | PIT | WR | 3.38 | $3,200 | 1.06 | $2,400 | 1.41 |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | RB | 2.37 | $4,800 | 0.49 | $5,800 | 0.41 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | MIA | WR | 1.54 | $2,000 | 0.77 | $2,600 | 0.59 |
Dolphins vs. Steelers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 22-22
Riley Patterson more than 1.5 field goals made (1.51x) – Sleeper Fantasy
After a clean sweep on Thursday and Sunday, we are back to .500 on the season. This is a golden opportunity to get back above .500 for the first time in a long time. For tonight, we are going with Riley Patterson to make more than 1.5 field goals. He has accomplished this feat in 8 of his last 9 games. The Dolphins don’t have a problem moving the football, but they do settle for a lot of field goals. The Steelers don’t have a good defense (13th in EPA allowed per dropback, 27th in EPA against the run), so the Dolphins should have no problem getting themselves into scoring position.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus