The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Eagles vs. Packers
For this Week 10 Monday Night Football matchup on 11/10 featuring the Eagles vs. Packers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Eagles vs. Packers
I hope everyone has had a great Week 10 so far. We have one more slate to break down before turning the page to Week 11. Tonight’s game should be a good one, as we have two of the best teams in the NFC squaring off in Lambeau Field. The Eagles are 6-2 and already have a 3-game lead in their division, while the Packers are 5-2-1 and will either be first or third in their division depending on what happens tonight. This game features a 1.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Monday)
Jayden Reed – Out
Tucker Kraft – Out
Matthew Golden – Questionable
Dontayvion Wicks – Questionable
Savion Williams – Questionable
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Jalen Hurts has been a DFS cheat code throughout his career. He’s at it again this season, topping 19 fantasy points in 7 of 8 games. The passing volume and efficiency have gone up over the last 4 games, while his rushing has taken a hit during that stretch. The good news is that he can get it done through the air and on the ground, which gives him a high floor and a high ceiling each week. He has one of his toughest matchups to date, as the Packers are 5th in PFF’s pass rush grades and 6th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Philly’s wideout usage (2025):
- A.J. Brown: 92% route participation, 26% target share, 38% air yards share
- DeVonta Smith: 95% route participation, 26% target share, 37% air yards share
- Jahan Dotson: 71% route participation, 7% target share, 12% air yards share
- Dallas Goedert: 79% route participation, 20% target share, 18% air yards share
The Eagles passing attack essentially flows through three players. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert have a combined 72% target share and a 93% air yards share. It’s been a strange season for Brown in that he’s topped 27 fantasy points twice and has been held under 10 fantasy points five times. Smith has been the more consistent receiver of the two, perhaps because he runs 60% of his routes from the slot. It’s a middling matchup, as the Packers are 16th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
If fantasy points were awarded for routes run, Jahan Dotson would be a great option in DFS. He has run a route on 71% of dropbacks this season. Unfortunately, that has only led to a 7% target share and a 12% air yards share. As for Goedert, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 of 7 games this season and draws an exploitable matchup against a defense that has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Saquon Barkley finally had a big fantasy outing last week against the Giants. Before that, he hadn’t topped 20 fantasy points in any game this season. Even worse, he had been held under 10 fantasy points in 3 games. I want to believe in Barkley and this offensive line, so I plan to be overweight on him this evening. I’m hoping a tough matchup will help curb the ownership. The Packers are 11th in PFF’s grades against the run and 6th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley will split backup running back duties.
The Eagles have a decent pass rush, but they are playing on the road against a very good offense. I would only look to Philly’s defense if building 5 or more lineups. Kicker Jake Elliott used to be a staple in my Showdown lineups, but he’s only made 2 or more field goals in 1 game all season.
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Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers have been one of the toughest teams to predict this season and have single-handedly taken out 50% or more of teams in survivor leagues. Jordan Love offers a high ceiling (he has topped 30 fantasy points in 2 of his last 5 games), but he needs the Packers to be trailing or pushed for that to happen. When they are playing with a lead, they just want to run the ball. This season, Green Bay has the 6th-highest rush rate. While a matchup against the Eagles is middling at best, Philly’s offense should be able to put up points and keep Green Bay aggressive offensively.
Green Bay’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Romeo Doubs: 80% route participation, 21% target share, 40% air yards share
- Christian Watson: 64% route participation, 11% target share, 36% air yards share
- Matthew Golden: 64% route participation, 12% target share, 19% air yards share
- Luke Musgrave: 23% route participation, 4% target share, 4% air yards share
Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft are both out for this game, while Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks are both listed as questionable. One of the problems with Green Bay’s passing attack is how spread out it has been the last few seasons, making it extremely difficult to predict for DFS. With Reed and Kraft out, Romeo Doubs is expected to lead the team in targets. I will note that he runs 82% of his routes outside, so he’ll likely draw coverage from Quinyon Mitchell.
If Wicks is active, he’ll likely run the most routes from the slot. This should be a valuable position in this particular matchup. If Wicks is out, we’ll see a decent mix of Golden and Christian Watson in the slot. Golden has been close to a few big games in his rookie season, but he has yet to top 13 fantasy points in any single game. Watson has soaked up 36% of the team’s air yards, making him a strong tournament play. With Kraft out, Luke Musgrave will see an uptick in routes and targets. Unfortunately, he’s priced up on both sites, and the Eagles are 3rd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles of any running back in the NFL. He runs behind an elite offensive line and has played on 67% of the snaps this season. He has averaged 21 opportunities per game and has already scored 10 touchdowns. The Eagles are above the league average in PFF’s grades against the run and EPA against the run, but they have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to running backs. Emanuel Wilson is worth a look in large-field tournaments, as he’s cheap and has seen at least 7 touches in each of the last 3 games.
The Packers defense was elite at the start of the season, but they have taken a few steps back over the last few weeks. While they are viable in large-field tournaments, I’m not prioritizing them in a tough matchup against the Eagles. It’s a great spot for Brandon McManus, who has made at least 2 field goals in 5 of 6 games this season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The value on this slate is going to come from Green Bay’s wideouts. With Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft both out, a lot of targets have opened up in this offense. If Dontayvion Wicks and/or Mathew Golden end up being out, even more value will open up in this receiving room. The tricky part of the slate is deciding whether you want to target the Eagles passing game, their rushing game, or pieces from each. It’s really tough to afford Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and one of Philly’s expensive receivers, so you will likely have to pick two out of the bunch. I’m leaning toward Hurts and Barkley in hopes that they can both score on the ground, or by Barkley catching a touchdown.
Eagles vs. Packers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 19.47 | $11,000 | 1.77 | $13,200 | 1.48 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 18.26 | $10,800 | 1.69 | $12,200 | 1.50 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 18.09 | $10,600 | 1.71 | $12,600 | 1.44 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 16.47 | $10,000 | 1.65 | $11,400 | 1.44 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 13.38 | $9,200 | 1.45 | $10,600 | 1.26 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 13.37 | $8,000 | 1.67 | $8,200 | 1.63 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 13.06 | $9,000 | 1.45 | $9,400 | 1.39 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 9.81 | $7,400 | 1.33 | $8,400 | 1.17 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 9.34 | $6,200 | 1.51 | $7,200 | 1.30 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 8.20 | $5,400 | 1.52 | $5,200 | 1.58 |
| Brandon McManus | GB | K | 7.64 | $4,800 | 1.59 | $6,200 | 1.23 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 6.98 | $4,400 | 1.59 | $2,800 | 2.49 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 6.97 | $5,000 | 1.39 | $6,600 | 1.06 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 6.27 | $4,000 | 1.57 | $6,400 | 0.98 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 5.97 | $2,600 | 2.30 | $3,600 | 1.66 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 4.85 | $3,800 | 1.28 | $6,800 | 0.71 |
| Tank Bigsby | PHI | RB | 2.62 | $2,800 | 0.94 | $4,600 | 0.57 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 2.54 | $3,400 | 0.75 | $2,200 | 1.15 |
| Malik Heath | GB | WR | 2.08 | $3,000 | 0.69 | $2,400 | 0.87 |
| John FitzPatrick | GB | TE | 1.96 | $1,600 | 1.23 | $4,200 | 0.47 |
| Savion Williams | GB | WR | 1.82 | $2,000 | 0.91 | $1,400 | 1.30 |
| Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | 1.63 | $600 | 2.72 | $1,200 | 1.36 |
Eagles vs. Packers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 13-15
Luke Musgrave less than 30.5 receiving yards (1.85x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I expect a lot of people to gravitate to Luke Musgrave in DFS and in pick’em contests. The tight end position has been such a valuable role for the Packers offense with Jordan Love under center. However, there are two concerns with Musgrave tonight. The first is that he’s not as talented as Tucker Kraft. He’s not going to step in and assume Kraft’s role right out of the gate. The second is that the Eagles have allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards (261) to tight ends this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus