The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Texans vs. Steelers
For this Wild Card Weekend Monday Night Football matchup on 1/12 featuring the Texans vs. Steelers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Texans vs. Steelers
The first 5 games of Wild Card Weekend have been tremendous. We typically see a lot of blowouts in this round, but that has not been the case so far. Let’s hope for another tightly contested battle on Monday night. The Texans travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The advanced metrics love the Texans here, but they don’t account for the voodoo that coach Mike Tomlin seems to have every season. This game features a 3-point spread and a 38.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Jawhar Jordan – Out
Darnell Washington – Out
Houston Texans Preview
The Texans made the playoffs on the backs of their talented defense. They finished the regular season 22nd in offensive EPA per play and 2nd in defensive EPA per play. C.J. Stroud hasn’t shown much upside over the last 2 seasons, but he might have the highest floor of any player on this slate. It’s an excellent matchup, as the Steelers have a mediocre pass rush and are 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Given his lack of rushing upside, he’s not my favorite play at MVP/CPT, but he’s close to a must-play at UTIL.
Houston’s wideout usage (2025):
- Nico Collins: 80% route participation, 23% target share, 38% air-yards share
- Jayden Higgins: 53% route participation, 12% target share, 19% air-yards share
- Xavier Hutchinson: 59% route participation, 10% target share, 13% air-yards share
- Dalton Schultz: 73% route participation, 18% target share, 15% air-yards share
Nico Collins has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. If he tops 100 receiving yards and scores a touchdown, he’ll likely be needed at MVP/CPT. During the regular season, he saw 23% of the team’s targets and 38% of the team’s air yards. Jayden Higgins is the clear WR2 in this offense and has seen 23% of the team’s air yards over the last 3 games. Xavier Hutchinson will mix in on the outside as well, while Christian Kirk will man the slot. It’s a great matchup for these receivers, as the Steelers have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to the position.
My flag plant of the slate is Dalton Schultz. He’s had solid underlying usage all season (18% target share, 15% air-yards share) and draws one of the top matchups on the slate, as the Steelers have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to the position. Schultz has scored double-digit fantasy points in 7 of his last 10 games. He’s a sneaky option at MVP/CPT, as it’s not going to take a huge fantasy outing to be the top producer on the slate.
Nick Chubb is a veteran running back, but I’m not sure how much work we can expect him to get in this game. He’s only had more than 6 carries one time in the last 7 games, and he’s not a part of the passing game. With Jawhar Jordan out, Woody Marks should have a huge role tonight against a team that is 24th in EPA against the run. Marks has had at least 1 reception in 8 straight games, and the game script could easily tilt in his favor if Houston gets off to a fast start.
The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They are facing a 42-year-old quarterback and a struggling offense. Houston’s defense is firmly in play here. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has attempted at least 2 field goals in every single game this season. He’s one of my favorite targets on the slate.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Aaron Rodgers somehow willed his team to the playoffs with a late comeback over the Ravens in Week 18. While I don’t think the Steelers are good, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them go on a run in the playoffs. Rodgers has actually played well recently, topping 15 fantasy points in 4 of his last 15 games. He even had a 20-yard run last week. The main issue tonight is a matchup against the Texans, who are 1st in EPA allowed per dropback and 5th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh’s wideout usage (2025):
- DK Metcalf: 86% route participation, 21% target share, 41% air-yards share
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 51% route participation, 7% target share, 14% air-yards share
- Adam Thielen: 38% route participation, 7% target share, 8% air-yards share
- Pat Freiermuth: 50% route participation, 10% target share, 11% air-yards share
DK Metcalf will be back from his 2-game suspension, but he’ll draw coverage from Derek Stingley, who is one of the best cover corners in the NFL. Rodgers is trying to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible, and he might have even less time than usual in this matchup. I have a tough time seeing a path for a big game from Metcalf. The same goes for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who runs most of his routes deep down the field. Calvin Austin and Adam Thielen will mix in as well, but neither stands out as a strong value. The Texans have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
With Darnell Washington out in Week 18, Pat Freiermuth ran a route on 70% of dropbacks. He caught 3 of 5 targets for 51 yards. Jonnu Smith only ran a route on 21% of dropbacks in that game, while Connor Heyward is essentially the tush-push specialist for Pittsburgh. The Texans have been middling against tight ends (12th), so I have my eye on Freiermuth in both cash games and tournaments.
Kenneth Gainwell is my favorite play from the Steelers in this game. Rodgers wants to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible, and Gainwell has been his favorite target recently. He’s seen at least 7 targets in 4 of the last 5 games. The Texans are elite against the run, but they have given up a lot of receiving production to opposing running backs. Jaylen Warren is worth a look as well, but I certainly prefer Gainwell if choosing between the two.
The Steelers haven’t had a great defense this season, but I could see C.J. Stroud struggling on the road in the playoffs. T.J. Watt is healthy, so I certainly don’t mind getting a few shares of this defense in tournaments. Kicker Chris Boswell is also viable, as kicking points become more valuable in low-scoring games.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I don’t have any specific rules that I am building in LineupHQ tonight. For me, it’s more about player selection than roster construction. On the Texans, my favorite targets are C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and then Woody Marks. On the Steelers, my favorite targets are Kenneth Gainwell, Pat Freiermuth, and then Aaron Rodgers. This could easily end up being a defensive battle, which would make kicking points more valuable. Both kickers are strong options. The defenses are in play as well.
Texans vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 16.16 | $10,600 | 1.52 | $13,000 | 1.24 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 16.11 | $10,200 | 1.58 | $12,600 | 1.28 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 12.94 | $9,800 | 1.32 | $12,000 | 1.08 |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 12.32 | $9,400 | 1.31 | $11,600 | 1.06 |
| Woody Marks | HOU | RB | 12.13 | $8,200 | 1.48 | $9,400 | 1.29 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 11.59 | $8,800 | 1.32 | $9,200 | 1.26 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 11.12 | $9,000 | 1.24 | $10,600 | 1.05 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 9.42 | $6,400 | 1.47 | $5,800 | 1.62 |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | 8.32 | $4,800 | 1.73 | $6,600 | 1.26 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 7.80 | $5,200 | 1.50 | $6,400 | 1.22 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 7.48 | $5,000 | 1.50 | $7,200 | 1.04 |
| Jayden Higgins | HOU | WR | 7.48 | $7,200 | 1.04 | $8,400 | 0.89 |
| Texans | HOU | DST | 7.36 | $4,600 | 1.60 | $6,800 | 1.08 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 6.71 | $3,600 | 1.86 | $6,200 | 1.08 |
| Christian Kirk | HOU | WR | 6.40 | $2,600 | 2.46 | $7,000 | 0.91 |
| Nick Chubb | HOU | RB | 4.24 | $3,000 | 1.41 | $5,400 | 0.79 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | PIT | WR | 4.09 | $3,200 | 1.28 | $3,400 | 1.20 |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 4.08 | $4,000 | 1.02 | $2,400 | 1.70 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 3.92 | $2,400 | 1.63 | $3,800 | 1.03 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 3.71 | $3,400 | 1.09 | $8,200 | 0.45 |
| Adam Thielen | PIT | WR | 3.39 | $4,400 | 0.77 | $4,800 | 0.71 |
| Cade Stover | HOU | TE | 2.82 | $600 | 4.70 | $1,600 | 1.76 |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU | WR | 1.61 | $2,800 | 0.58 | $4,400 | 0.37 |
| Connor Heyward | PIT | TE | 1.58 | $1,600 | 0.99 | $1,800 | 0.88 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | 1.22 | $400 | 3.05 | $1,400 | 0.87 |
| Kaleb Johnson | PIT | RB | 1.10 | $400 | 2.75 | $1,200 | 0.92 |
Texans vs. Steelers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 25-25
Kenneth Gainwell more than 33.5 receiving yards (1.81x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We finished the regular season at .500, so let’s try to get above that mark with a win tonight. As noted earlier, Kenneth Gainwell has had at least 7 targets in 4 of the last 5 games. Aaron Rodgers loves to get rid of the ball quickly, and I expect that to be the case again against the Texans. I don’t expect him to complete many passes down the field, but I do expect a lot of checkdowns to Gainwell.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus