The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Broncos vs. Jets
For this Week 6 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 10/12 featuring the Broncos vs. Jets, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Broncos vs. Jets
For the third week in a row, we have an early morning Showdown slate on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a big win in Philadelphia against the defending champs. They have improved to 3-2 in the standings and look like a real contender to win the AFC West. The Jets have been one of the sloppiest teams in the league, consistently racking up penalties and turnovers. They are 0-5 to start the season with a point differential of -45. It hasn’t been pretty, but I do hope Aaron Glenn can right the ship in New York.
This game features a 6.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Allen Lazard – Out
Braelon Allen – Out
Denver Broncos Preview
The Broncos were a laughingstock a few seasons ago, but they are the ones doing the laughing now. Bo Nix was terrific in the second half of his rookie season and is off to a strong start this season. He offers rushing upside and is capable of throwing for 300+ yards in games where the Broncos are pushed. While I do worry about New York’s ability to keep this game competitive, it’s an elite matchup on paper. The Jets are currently 30th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback. Nix is close to a must-play and deserves strong consideration at MVP/CPT.
Denver’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Courtland Sutton: 81% route participation, 21% target share, 34% air yards share
- Troy Franklin: 74% route participation, 18% target share, 29% air yards share
- Marvin Mims: 45% route participation, 12% target share, 20% air yards share
- Evan Engram: 46% route participation, 12% target share, 10% air yards share
Courtland Sutton has topped 99 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 4 of 5 games this season. He leads the team in route participation, target share, and air yards share. He’s done it while having a string of poor cornerback matchups. He gets another one this week against Sauce Gardner, who did an excellent job on George Pickens last week. Sutton is still viable, but I do prefer Troy Franklin on a per-dollar basis. He boasts an 18% target share and a 29% air yards share this season. If the Jets can slow down Sutton, Franklin should be the main beneficiary.
Marvin Mims is far from an every-down player, but he has still seen 20% of the team’s air yards this season. He’s also seen a rushing attempt in each of the last 2 games. He’s one of the more volatile options on this slate, but he has more upside than most players priced around him. Pat Bryant and Trent Sherfield might run a few routes each, but they don’t have a clear path to success on this slate. Evan Engram hasn’t been on the field as much as we’d like to see, but his target share (12%) makes him a decent flier on this slate. The Jets have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
J.K. Dobbins isn’t a true workhorse running back in this offense, but he is the lead running back. This season, he has played on 53% of the snaps and has averaged 17 opportunities per game. The expected game script is in his favor (Broncos are 6.5-point favorites), and he gets to face the Jets, who are 21st in EPA against the run and 19th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. RJ Harvey’s path to success here is a Denver blowout. In Week 4, when they won 28-3, he had season highs in carries (14), targets (5), and yards from scrimmage (98). He’s been fairly quiet in the competitive games.
The Broncos are top 10 in pressure rate, pressure rate over expectation, and PFF’s pass rush grades. They are facing a quarterback who takes a lot of sacks and a team that commits a lot of turnovers. Denver’s defense is firmly in play here, as is their kicker, Will Lutz.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
New York Jets Preview
The Jets looked awful for the first 50 minutes of their game against the Cowboys last week, but they came through for the DFS crowd with some late touchdowns. Justin Fields is a strong fantasy option every week, regardless of opponent. In his 3 full games this season with the Jets, he has scored 29, 28, and 26 fantasy points. A matchup against the Broncos is brutal on paper (4th in EPA per dropback allowed), but Fields is a strong option in all formats. His rushing upside makes him viable at MVP and CPT.
New York’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Garrett Wilson: 95% route participation, 30% target share, 44% air yards share
- Josh Reynolds: 77% route participation, 10% target share, 13% air yards share
- Arian Smith: 55% route participation, 3% target share, 3% air yards share
- Mason Taylor: 75% route participation, 18% target share, 14% air yards share
Even though the Jets have the 5th-lowest pass rate over expectation this season, Garrett Wilson has played extremely well. He has scored at least 19 fantasy points in 4 of 5 games and is looking for his 4th consecutive game with a touchdown. He boasts a 30% target share and a 44% air yards share. The issue here is a likely matchup with Patrick Surtain, who is one of the best at shutting down opposing WR1s. Wilson is still viable, but there are certainly paths for him to underperform in this matchup.
With Allen Lazard out, Josh Reynolds and Arian Smith will round out 3-receiver sets. Reynolds is coming off his best game of the season and is the more proven wideout in the NFL, so I’ll side with him in small-field tournaments and cash games. Smith is best suited as a large-field tournament dart. Mason Taylor has really come on strong the last 2 games, catching 14 of his 19 targets for 132 yards. It’s a tough matchup for all the wideouts, as the Broncos are 5th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 4th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
With Braelon Allen out of the lineup last week, Breece Hall played on 59% of the snaps and turned 18 touches into 155 yards from scrimmage. Granted, it was against the Cowboys, but it’s encouraging that Hall’s two highest-touch games have been in the last 2 weeks when Allen was hurt. The Broncos have been middling against the run, and Hall is such a good pass-catcher out of the backfield, so he should be heavily involved regardless of the game script. Isaiah Davis will serve as the RB2 here. He did catch 3 of his 4 targets from Fields last week.
The Jets have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL and are facing a very good offense. I want no part of their defense for DFS. Kicker Nick Folk has been solid this season, but I always worry about game script for kickers on teams that are large underdogs.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My lineups on this slate are going to start with the two quarterbacks. Bo Nix and Justin Fields are two of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. They have also been two of the most productive quarterbacks in DFS. Most of my builds will have Nix or Fields at the multiplier positions. There are certainly paths for both starting running backs in this game, although the game script does set up better for J.K. Dobbins than it does for Breece Hall. As far as the pass catchers go, I’m planning to be underweight on both WR1s here (Garrett Wilson and Courtland Sutton).
Broncos vs. Jets DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 20.30 | $10,800 | 1.88 | $12,600 | 1.61 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | QB | 18.79 | $10,600 | 1.77 | $13,400 | 1.40 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 16.62 | $9,800 | 1.70 | $11,600 | 1.43 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 16.15 | $10,200 | 1.58 | $12,200 | 1.32 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | 14.04 | $9,400 | 1.49 | $9,800 | 1.43 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 13.15 | $10,000 | 1.32 | $10,400 | 1.26 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 11.50 | $7,000 | 1.64 | $8,400 | 1.37 |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | TE | 9.08 | $5,200 | 1.75 | $4,800 | 1.89 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 8.44 | $5,400 | 1.56 | $7,200 | 1.17 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 8.15 | $3,200 | 2.55 | $5,600 | 1.46 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 8.14 | $5,000 | 1.63 | $7,000 | 1.16 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | 8.13 | $4,400 | 1.85 | $8,200 | 0.99 |
| Evan Engram | DEN | TE | 7.58 | $6,200 | 1.22 | $5,200 | 1.46 |
| Nick Folk | NYJ | K | 6.39 | $4,800 | 1.33 | $6,400 | 1.00 |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ | RB | 5.88 | $4,000 | 1.47 | $4,400 | 1.34 |
| Josh Reynolds | NYJ | WR | 4.76 | $3,600 | 1.32 | $4,000 | 1.19 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 4.51 | $3,000 | 1.50 | $6,000 | 0.75 |
| Arian Smith | NYJ | WR | 2.95 | $1,200 | 2.46 | $1,600 | 1.84 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 2.51 | $2,400 | 1.05 | $2,600 | 0.97 |
| Tyler Badie | DEN | RB | 2.43 | $1,400 | 1.74 | $2,000 | 1.22 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 2.33 | $1,600 | 1.46 | $3,200 | 0.73 |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | 1.72 | $600 | 2.87 | $2,200 | 0.78 |
Broncos vs. Jets Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 5-10
Josh Reynolds more than 17.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
These low-volume plays are always tricky, but I feel good about Reynolds’ target share in this game. He ran a route on 92% of dropbacks in Week 1 before missing the next 2 games with an injury. Over the last 2 games, he’s run a route on 72% of dropbacks. With Allen Lazard out this week, that number could easily creep above 80%. The Jets are likely going to be trailing in this one, and Garrett Wilson will likely get shadowed by Patrick Surtain. The Broncos are extremely tough on tight ends, so Fields has to throw the ball somewhere. If Reynolds gets 4-6 targets in this one, he should have an easy path to more than 17.5 receiving yards.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus