The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Falcons vs. Colts
For this Week 10 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 11/9 featuring the Falcons vs. Colts, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Falcons vs. Colts
We have another overseas game this week, so we’ll have a game to sweat first thing on Sunday morning. This one will take place in Berlin, Germany. The Falcons have dropped 3 games in a row and are quickly losing pace in the NFC South, while the Colts are looking to rebound after losing last week to the Steelers. At 7-2, they currently have a stranglehold over their rivals in the AFC South. This game features a 6.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries
None
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Michael Penix is a pocket passer on a team with one of the lowest pass rates above expectation in the NFL. It’s easy to see why he hasn’t flashed a ton of upside in his short career. He’s certainly viable on this Showdown slate, but he doesn’t have the ceiling that I am looking for at MVP and CPT. If Penix has a big game, it’ll be through the air. And if that happens, there’s a good chance one of his wideouts will outscore him.
Atlanta’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Drake London: 85% route participation, 31% target share, 41% air yards share
- Darnell Mooney: 82% route participation, 13% target share, 25% air yards share
- David Sills: 38% route participation, 2% target share, 4% air yards share
- Kyle Pitts: 88% route participation, 20% target share, 16% air yards share
Drake London has been the alpha receiver in this offense, soaking up a 31% target share and a 41% air yards share. He runs a nice mix of short and deep routes, which gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. He’s firmly in play at MVP and CPT, as the Colts have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Darnell Mooney has yet to top 10 fantasy points in any game this season. While not ideal, he’s only $4,000 on DraftKings.
David Sills has run 52% of his routes from the slot this season. The Colts tend to allow a lot of throws underneath, so Sills could be a sneaky option. Using that same thought process, it’s hard not to like the spot for Kyle Pitts. He’s second on the team in target share (20%) and is facing a defense that has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to tight ends. This could also be a favorable game script if the Falcons fall behind early.
Bijan Robinson has been held in check the last couple of games, but he’s still having an incredible season. He has played on 77% of the snaps and has averaged 21 opportunities per game. He has run a route on 72% of dropbacks, which makes him immune to the game script, as he’s heavily involved in both the running game and the passing game. The matchup isn’t as good as it is for the wide receivers and tight ends, but Robinson is viable in all formats. I don’t love the idea of playing an RB2 who doesn’t catch passes in a game where the Falcons are 6.5-point underdogs, so I’ll take my chances with a fade of Tyler Allgeier.
Very few defenses have been able to slow down the Colts this season, so I’m not sure Atlanta’s defense will have much success here. It sounds like Zane Gonzalez will make his first start with the Falcons at kicker. This has been a brutal position for the Falcons over the last 5 years.
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Indianapolis Colts Preview
Daniel Jones is having an incredible season. It turns out good things happen when you leave the Giants. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in 3 straight games and in 5 of 8 games so far this season. A matchup against the Falcons isn’t the best on the board this week, but Atlanta has been middling against the pass. Jones hasn’t had any huge rushing games in terms of yards, but he has already scored 5 rushing touchdowns this season. He’s viable at MVP and CPT.
Indy’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Michael Pittman: 83% route participation, 22% target share, 24% air yards share
- Alec Pierce: 82% route participation, 19% target share, 45% air yards share
- Josh Downs: 62% route participation, 17% target share, 15% air yards share
- Tyler Warren: 79% route participation, 18% target share, 13% air yards share
Michael Pittman has had a better season than you might expect. He has topped 20 fantasy points in 3 straight games and has averaged 17 fantasy points per game this season. He leads the team in target share (22%) and air yards share (24%). I will note that he lines up outside on most of his routes, and the Falcons have been tough against WR1s. Alec Pierce continues to be the deep threat for the Colts and is worth a look in tournaments.
If you want to play the slot receiver angle, Josh Downs has run 80% of his routes from the slot this season. He has quietly scored double-digit fantasy points in each of his last 4 games. Tyler Warren is coming off back-to-back letdowns in DFS. To make matters worse, the Falcons have allowed the fewest fantasy points of any team to tight ends this season. I’m going to be underweight on him on this slate, but it’s a scary feeling.
Jonathan Taylor is coming off his worst game of the season, but he has topped 30 fantasy points 5 times already. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any player in this game. The best way to move the ball on the Falcons is on the ground, as they are bottom 10 in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Taylor is my favorite target at MVP and CPT.
The Colts’ defense has one of the lowest pressure rates in the league, but at least they have the projected game script in their favor. Kicker Michael Badgley could be a strong option here, especially since the Falcons are tough against the pass.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
We have a lot of good spends on this slate, but there aren’t any great value plays. If you want to force those stars into your lineups, my favorite way to do it is through Tyler Goodson on DraftKings ($200). There’s a chance he could end up with a bagel, but that doesn’t kill you at this price point. He played on 14% of snaps last week and has had 2 carries and 2 targets in the last 2 games. At MVP and CPT, my favorite targets are Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyle Pitts. I don’t have any interest in the defenses, and I prefer Indy’s kicker over Atlanta’s.
Falcons vs. Colts DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 21.92 | $11,000 | 1.99 | $13,000 | 1.69 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 21.60 | $12,000 | 1.80 | $13,400 | 1.61 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | QB | 19.09 | $10,000 | 1.91 | $11,800 | 1.62 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 18.97 | $9,800 | 1.94 | $11,400 | 1.66 |
| Michael Penix | ATL | QB | 15.48 | $8,800 | 1.76 | $10,400 | 1.49 |
| Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 13.71 | $8,400 | 1.63 | $9,600 | 1.43 |
| Tyler Warren | IND | TE | 13.34 | $7,400 | 1.80 | $8,600 | 1.55 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 11.79 | $6,800 | 1.73 | $7,400 | 1.59 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 11.06 | $5,200 | 2.13 | $5,600 | 1.98 |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | 8.91 | $6,400 | 1.39 | $7,600 | 1.17 |
| Michael Badgley | IND | K | 8.78 | $5,000 | 1.76 | $6,600 | 1.33 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 7.41 | $4,000 | 1.85 | $6,400 | 1.16 |
| Zane Gonzalez | ATL | K | 7.25 | $4,800 | 1.51 | $6,200 | 1.17 |
| Colts | IND | DST | 6.11 | $4,400 | 1.39 | $6,800 | 0.90 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 5.45 | $3,000 | 1.82 | $5,200 | 1.05 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 5.14 | $3,400 | 1.51 | $6,000 | 0.86 |
| David Sills | ATL | WR | 2.83 | $2,400 | 1.18 | $4,000 | 0.71 |
| Ameer Abdullah | IND | RB | 1.37 | $400 | 3.43 | $3,600 | 0.38 |
| Tyler Goodson | IND | RB | 1.24 | $200 | 6.20 | $1,800 | 0.69 |
Falcons vs. Colts Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 11-15
Jonathan Taylor more than 93.5 rushing yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
After a loss and his worst game of the season, I fully expect the Colts to feed JT early and often in this game. He has rushed 94 or more yards in 5 of his last 8 games and draws an elite matchup against the Falcons. They are 25th in PFF’s grades against the run and 23rd in EPA against the run. If this game goes as planned, JT will have a clear path to 20 carries.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus