The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Vikings vs. Browns
For this Week 5 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 10/5 featuring the Vikings vs. Browns, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Vikings vs. Browns
It’s always fun to get our Sunday sweat started early before the main slate kicks off. The Vikings are coming off a loss against the Steelers in Dublin. They now travel to London to take on the Browns. With the Packers and Lions in their division, they can’t afford to fall to 2-3 on the season. The Browns are 1-3 on the season with a -46 point differential. It’s been a sad start to the season for us Joe Flacco truthers, as he’s already been benched. We’ll see Dillon Gabriel in action this week for Cleveland.
With two backup quarterbacks at the helm, this could be one of the lower-scoring games of Week 5 (maybe even the season). The game features a 3.5-point spread and a 35.5-point total.
Key Injuries
J.J. McCarthy – Out
Aaron Jones – Out
Cedric Tillman – Out
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Carson Wentz isn’t the long-term answer in Minnesota, but he’s filled in admirably for J.J. McCarthy. Most notably, he threw for 350 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against the Steelers. He’s unlikely to have extra time in the pocket this week, as the Browns are 1st in the NFL in pressure rate over expectation and 1st in PFF’s pass rush grades. Through the first 4 games, Cleveland has held opposing quarterbacks to the 7th-fewest fantasy points. I won’t be using Wentz in the multiplier spots, but he’s firmly in play at UTIL/AnyFLEX.
Minnesota’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Justin Jefferson: 93% route participation, 28% target share, 39% air yards share
- Jordan Addison: 91% route participation, 17% target share, 31% air yards share
- Adam Thielen: 56% route participation, 7% target share, 11% air yards share
- T.J. Hockenson: 75% route participation, 16% target share, 12% air yards share
While McCarthy might have the higher ceiling, I would argue that Wentz being under center is better for Justin Jefferson. In the last 2 games with Wentz at the helm, he’s caught 15 of his 18 targets for 201 yards. The Browns do have an excellent pass rush, but they have been middling against wide receivers this season (13th). Jordan Addison wasted no time getting acclimated to the 2025 season, playing on 91% of snaps in his first game coming off suspension.
Based on what we saw in Week 4, Jalen Nailor and Adam Thielen are going to split time as the slot receiver for the Vikings. Nailor ran more routes (76%) than Thielen (55%), but they will both be on the field quite a bit against the Browns. With very little price difference, I’ll side with Nailor over Thielen. T.J. Hockenson has only seen a 16% target share and a 12% air yards share this season. A matchup against the Browns doesn’t look promising, as they have allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
With Aaron Jones out for the last 2 games, Jordan Mason has played on 60% of the snaps and has handled 63% of the team’s carries. It hasn’t exactly been a workhorse role for Mason, and he’s only run a route on 37% of dropbacks even with Jones out. Essentially, he needs to get there through rushing yards and touchdowns. That’s a big ask against the Browns, who are 1st in PFF’s grades against the run and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
This is a rare slate where both defenses are in play for DFS. The Vikings have the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the league and get to face Dillon Gabriel in his first NFL start. The kickers are also viable, as a few field goals could easily land a kicker in the optimal lineup.
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Cleveland Browns Preview
After struggling in the first 4 games, it’s easy to see why the Browns want to move on from veteran Joe Flacco. He’s not their long-term answer at quarterback. They had two choices to replace him, as they drafted two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft. 3rd-rounder Dillon Gabriel will get the first crack at it, much to the dismay of Shedeur Sanders. In his final college season with Oregon, Gabriel threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He didn’t show much rushing upside though, as he had 149 rushing yards in 14 games. He has a tough draw against the Vikings, who have an elite pass rush and have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Cleveland’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Jerry Jeudy: 86% route participation, 18% target share, 44% air yards share
- Isaiah Bond: 46% route participation, 8% target share, 10% air yards share
- David Njoku: 74% route participation, 12% target share, 11% air yards share
- Harold Fannin: 57% route participation, 14% target share, 16% air yards share
Jerry Jeudy has had solid usage metrics this season (18% target share, 44% air yards share) and could be in for an even bigger role with Cedric Tillman out. However, the change at quarterback will most certainly be a downgrade for these pass catchers, as Flacco has always been a quarterback who has elevated the fantasy production of his wideouts. Isaiah Bond and Jamari Thrash will round out three-receiver sets, but the Browns tend to run more 12-personnel.
With Tillman out, we can expect a ton of snaps and routes for tight ends David Njoku and Harold Fannin. The two have already combined for 26% of the team’s targets and 27% of the team’s air yards this season. Add in the fact that young quarterbacks tend to lean on their tight ends, and they become two of the more appealing plays on this slate. The two are priced and projected similarly. I expect to have an equal share of both in my lineups.
Since being announced as the starter in Week 3, Quinshon Judkins has played on 59% of the snaps and has handled 89% of the team’s carries. He has averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry and has caught 8 of his 9 targets in his first 3 games. With a rookie quarterback under center, the Browns will look to establish the run early. It’s a good matchup on paper, as the Vikings are 26th in EPA against the run.
As noted earlier, this feels like a defenses and kickers slate. The Browns have an elite pass rush and are facing a backup quarterback in Carson Wentz. Kicker Andre Szmyt has already missed 2 field goals this season but is worth a look given the low total of the game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is not a fun slate. Your lineups aren’t going to leave you feeling confident once lock hits, but that’s how everyone is going to feel. It’s a tough matchup for both offenses, but there are some bright spots that we can target. Justin Jefferson has had a massive target share with Carson Wentz under center, Jerry Jeudy could benefit with Cedric Tillman out, and Quinshon Judkins has been dominating the backfield touches for the Browns. This is also a slate where we shouldn’t shy away from the defenses and kickers.
Vikings vs. Browns DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 16.78 | $11,400 | 1.47 | $13,800 | 1.22 |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | 15.65 | $9,800 | 1.60 | $11,200 | 1.40 |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | 15.38 | $10,400 | 1.48 | $12,800 | 1.20 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | QB | 14.63 | $9,000 | 1.63 | $11,600 | 1.26 |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | QB | 11.87 | $8,000 | 1.48 | $10,400 | 1.14 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 10.37 | $8,400 | 1.23 | $9,600 | 1.08 |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 9.30 | $7,600 | 1.22 | $8,600 | 1.08 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 8.20 | $6,800 | 1.21 | $7,800 | 1.05 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 8.08 | $5,800 | 1.39 | $7,400 | 1.09 |
| David Njoku | CLE | TE | 7.57 | $4,600 | 1.65 | $6,600 | 1.15 |
| Harold Fannin | CLE | TE | 7.09 | $4,400 | 1.61 | $4,800 | 1.48 |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE | WR | 7.08 | $5,200 | 1.36 | $4,400 | 1.61 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 6.71 | $5,400 | 1.24 | $7,000 | 0.96 |
| Browns | CLE | DST | 6.32 | $4,000 | 1.58 | $6,200 | 1.02 |
| Andre Szmyt | CLE | K | 5.67 | $5,000 | 1.13 | $6,000 | 0.95 |
| Zavier Scott | MIN | RB | 5.05 | $3,400 | 1.49 | $3,200 | 1.58 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 4.64 | $3,600 | 1.29 | $5,400 | 0.86 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | 3.47 | $2,400 | 1.45 | $2,000 | 1.74 |
| Jamari Thrash | CLE | WR | 2.50 | $2,000 | 1.25 | $4,000 | 0.63 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 2.33 | $3,000 | 0.78 | $3,600 | 0.65 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 1.50 | $600 | 2.50 | $1,800 | 0.83 |
Vikings vs. Browns Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 5-7
Dillon Gabriel less than 176.5 passing yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are on a little roll in pick’em and are inching back to .500 on the season. I’m an optimist at heart, so I generally side with more than in these pick’ems. However, this could be one of the lowest-scoring games that we see all season. I’ll take less than 176.5 passing yards for Dillon Gabriel, who is making his first NFL start. It’s a really tough spot for the rookie, as he’s playing in London against an elite defense. As long as the game stays competitive, I expect the Browns to lean heavily on the run.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus