The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Vikings vs. Steelers
For this Week 4 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 9/28 featuring the Vikings vs. Steelers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Vikings vs. Steelers
We have our first overseas game of the season, which means we have to set our alarm clocks for early Sunday morning (at least those of us on the West Coast). The Vikings and Steelers will square off in Dublin. While I wish we were giving Ireland a better game, there is some star power in this game with Justin Jefferson and Aaron Rodgers.
The Vikings are 2-1 to start the season with a healthy +25 in the point differential column, while the Steelers are 2-1 despite scoring 5 points fewer than their opponents so far this season. The winner of this game will be in great shape through the first 4 games. The Vikings will stay in Europe and face the Browns in London in Week 5.
The total for this game is set at only 40.5 points, but we do have a close spread (MIN -2.5).
Key Injuries
J.J. McCarthy – Out
Aaron Jones – Out
Jaylen Warren – Questionable
Jonnu Smith – Questionable
Minnesota Vikings Preview
The Vikings could have a real dilemma on their hands if Carson Wentz continues to win games. J.J. McCarthy might be the future in Minnesota, but Wentz is likely their best option if they are hoping to make a run at the playoffs this season. In his start last week against the Bengals, Wentz completed 70% of his passes and threw for 2 touchdowns. The game got out of hand early, so he was only asked to throw the ball 20 times. That number should go up this week against the Steelers, who have not been good defensively this season. They are 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Minnesota’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Justin Jefferson: 90% route participation, 31% target share, 39% air yards share
- Adam Thielen: 77% route participation, 9% target share, 16% air yards share
- T.J. Hockenson: 71% route participation, 20% target share, 16% air yards share
Jordan Addison is set to return this week following his suspension. He’ll immediately step in as the WR2 on the outside, which will impact Jalen Nailor more than anyone else. Justin Jefferson is still the clear WR1 in the offense, while Adam Thielen will continue to man the slot. The Steelers have already given up big fantasy outings to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Garrett Wilson this season, so this could be a great spot for Jefferson. He has as high a ceiling as you are going to find on this Showdown slate, which makes him a strong option at both MVP and CPT.
Nailor isn’t expected to be limited in his season debut, but he’s not priced at any sort of discount. Thielen has only seen 6 targets all season, but he has run a route on 77% of dropbacks. He’s affordable and projecting for less than 10% ownership. As far as the matchup goes, the Steelers are 18th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 31st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Hockenson caught 5 of 6 targets in his first game with Wentz under center and has a strong matchup on paper. I’m not interested in any of the super cheap wideouts on the Vikings.
We shouldn’t put too much stock into Jordan Mason’s usage last week against the Bengals. He only played on 60% of the snaps, but that’s because the Vikings were demolishing the Bengals and didn’t need Mason much in the second half. With Aaron Jones out, Mason is going to be a good bet for 20+ touches every week. The Steelers are known as a great defensive team, but they have been middling against the run this season. They are 15th in PFF’s grades against the run and 13th in EPA against the run. The only concern I have with Mason is his lack of pass game involvement. He’s only seen 4 targets in the first 3 games combined.
The Vikings are 1st in pressure rate over expectation this season, and Aaron Rodgers isn’t exactly mobile in the pocket at this stage of his career. I don’t target defenses very often in these primetime games, but Minnesota’s defense is firmly in play here. Kicker Will Reichard could be in for a great game. The Vikings should move the ball with ease, and the game features a low total. Those kicking points could be very valuable on this slate.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
The Steelers haven’t played their best football (or even good football), yet they are 2-1 in the Aaron Rodgers era. Unlike last year with the Jets, Rodgers isn’t checking out of every run play to throw a 5-yard slant to Davante Adams. Through the first 3 games, the Steelers have a negative pass rate above expectation. Rodgers has little to no rushing upside at this stage of his career and is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt this season, which is the 23rd worst among quarterbacks this season. To make matters worse, the Vikings are 1st in EPA allowed per dropback and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I rarely fade quarterbacks in Showdown, but I’m considering it here.
Pittsburgh’s 2025 wideout usage:
- DK Metcalf: 86% route participation, 19% target share, 23% air yards share
- Calvin Austin: 78% route participation, 16% target share, 54% air yards share
- Roman Wilson: 28% route participation, 2% target share, 7% air yards share
- Jonnu Smith: 57% route participation, 15% target share, 3% air yards share
Calvin Austin having 54% of the team’s air yards through 3 games was not on my 2025 NFL Bingo card. He hasn’t caught many of those deep balls, but he does have 2 touchdowns already this season. I’m still a firm believer that DK Metcalf will be the clear WR1 in this offense by the end of the season. Rather than paying a premium for Austin in a difficult matchup, I’d rather take the discount on Metcalf. He offers slate-breaking upside and is my favorite MVP/CPT target on the Steelers.
Roman Wilson is technically the WR3, but the Steelers love to use 12-personnel (2 tight end sets). I will note that Wilson is only $200 on DraftKings. These min-priced receivers can often find their way into the optimal lineup with a single reception. Jonnu Smith is listed as questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status. He’s seen 15% of the team’s targets this season. If he’s out, Pat Freiermuth would become one of the best value plays on the slate.
Jaylen Warren was heading toward being the chalk in Week 3 before Aaron Jones and Zach Charbonnet were ruled out. His playing time has been trending in the right direction over the last 2 games. He handled over 80% of the running back touches last week, which bodes well for him moving forward. The Vikings have been significantly worse against the run than they have been against the pass, and Warren is a capable pass catcher out of the backfield.
The Steelers defense has really struggled to start the season. If Alex Highsmith is out, I don’t want any exposure to them on this slate. As noted earlier, kicking points could be extremely valuable given the low total in this game. Kicker Chris Boswell has made all 5 of his field goal attempts this season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is an interesting Showdown slate because we have a backup quarterback starting for one team and an aging pocket passer starting for the other. I typically jam in both starting quarterbacks and figure the rest out, but that’s not the case on this slate. I’m perfectly fine taking a chance on fading Carson Wentz or Aaron Rodgers. I personally have less interest in Rodgers and like the idea of getting my Steelers exposure through Jaylen Warren and DK Metcalf. I could see both offenses struggling to score touchdowns in the red zone, so don’t be afraid to fire up those double-kicker lineups.
Vikings vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 17.75 | $10,800 | 1.64 | $13,600 | 1.31 |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | 17.08 | $10,400 | 1.64 | $11,800 | 1.45 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 16.18 | $8,400 | 1.93 | $9,800 | 1.65 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | QB | 15.90 | $9,000 | 1.77 | $11,200 | 1.42 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 14.88 | $9,800 | 1.52 | $12,400 | 1.20 |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 13.59 | $9,400 | 1.45 | $10,600 | 1.28 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 9.92 | $5,400 | 1.84 | $7,800 | 1.27 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 9.71 | $6,200 | 1.57 | $7,200 | 1.35 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 9.38 | $7,000 | 1.34 | $9,200 | 1.02 |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 7.53 | $3,000 | 2.51 | $5,000 | 1.51 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 7.42 | $4,400 | 1.69 | $5,400 | 1.37 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 7.35 | $4,800 | 1.53 | $6,400 | 1.15 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 6.87 | $5,800 | 1.18 | $6,800 | 1.01 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 6.75 | $5,000 | 1.35 | $7,000 | 0.96 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 6.60 | $5,200 | 1.27 | $6,600 | 1.00 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 6.37 | $2,000 | 3.19 | $3,800 | 1.68 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 3.77 | $3,600 | 1.05 | $4,600 | 0.82 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 3.29 | $4,000 | 0.82 | $4,200 | 0.78 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | 2.43 | $200 | 12.15 | $1,400 | 1.74 |
| Zavier Scott | MIN | RB | 2.30 | $2,400 | 0.96 | $2,400 | 0.96 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 1.93 | $1,600 | 1.21 | $3,200 | 0.60 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 1.34 | $600 | 2.23 | $1,600 | 0.84 |
Vikings vs. Steelers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 3-7
Jaylen Warren more than 24.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Trey McBride had so many chances to top 64.5 receiving yards on Thursday night, but he didn’t end up getting there. This drops us to 3-7 on the season. We’ll look to get back on track with Jaylen Warren, as we’ve seen his role increase in each of the first 3 games of the season. In Week 3, he played on 78% of the snaps and ran a route on 47% of dropbacks. We know Aaron Rodgers is happy to dump the ball off to his running backs, especially when he’s under pressure. The Vikings will certainly force him to get the ball out quickly, as they have the 2nd-highest pressure rate this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus