The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Giants
For this Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup on 9/21 featuring the Chiefs vs. Giants, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Chiefs vs. Giants
I hope everyone has had a great Week 3 so far. We have an interesting game on tap on Sunday night. Both of these teams are looking to avoid losing their first 3 games of the season. The Chiefs have lost to the Chargers and Eagles, while the Giants have lost to the Commanders and Cowboys. History hasn’t been kind to 0-3 teams when it comes to making the playoffs, so this is an important game for both teams. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites, while the game features a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Xavier Worthy – Out
Rashee Rice – Out
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs were the living embodiment of the Jesse Pinkman meme last season: “They can’t keep getting away with this.” They seemed to win every one-possession game while putting up very mediocre numbers offensively. Patrick Mahomes has been a much better real-life quarterback than fantasy quarterback over the last few years, especially during the regular season. With that said, the Chiefs are shorthanded and will treat tonight’s game as a must-win. We’ve seen plenty of rushing upside from him this season, as he’s already racked up 113 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. The Giants are currently 25th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Kansas City’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Hollywood Brown: 87% route participation, 28% target share, 21% air yards share
- Juju Smith-Schuster: 72% route participation, 10% target share, 8% air yards share
- Tyquan Thornton: 72% route participation, 15% target share, 52% air yards share
- Travis Kelce: 78% route participation, 15% target share, 11% air yards share
- Noah Gray: 35% route participation, 7% target share, 7% air yards share
Xavier Worthy has officially been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means the Chiefs will be without their top two pass catchers once again. Hollywood Brown was the chalk that busted last week, but he had to deal with Quinyon Mitchell, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. The Giants have a good defensive line, but they are extremely vulnerable in the secondary. This is a great week to go right back to Brown in both cash games and tournaments. Travis Kelce is a player whom I faded in season-long leagues, but he has run a route on 78% of dropbacks this season and is still a trusted weapon for Mahomes.
One of the keys to the slate is figuring out the ancillary pieces in Kansas City’s receiving room. Juju Smith-Schuster has run a route on 72% of the dropbacks this season and is primarily a slot receiver. If the Giants can get pressure on Mahomes in this game, perhaps that will force him to lean on his underneath targets like Smith-Schuster. If the Giants can’t get pressure on Mahomes, this could be a breakout game for Tyquan Thornton, who has 52% of the team’s air yards this season. Jalen Royals and Noah Gray will also mix in, but they are best suited as large-field tournament targets.
The Chiefs’ backfield is a tough one at the moment. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are splitting work, and they have both struggled with efficiency. The good news for both players is that the Giants have been awful against the run this season. Through the first 2 games, New York is 22nd in PFF’s grades against the run, 31st in EPA against the run, and dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs. For large-field tournaments, I don’t mind making a rule to include one of Pacheco or Hunt in each lineup.
The Chiefs’ defense is viable since they are facing Russell Wilson, but they are far from a priority on this slate. Kicker Harrison Butker is one of the best mid-range options for cash games and small-field tournaments.
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New York Giants Preview
The Giants couldn’t move the ball against the Commanders in Week 1, but Russell Wilson turned around and had a career game against the Cowboys in Week 2. He threw for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns. Perhaps that says more about the Micah Parsons-less defense than it does about Wilson, but it was still impressive. He has a tougher matchup this week against the Chiefs, who have a good pass rush. Wilson is viable at UTIL/AnyFLEX, but a lack of rushing upside takes him out of CPT/MVP consideration.
New York’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Malik Nabers: 92% route participation, 31% target share, 57% air yards share
- Wan’Dale Robinson: 79% route participation, 23% target share, 28% air yards share
- Darius Slayton: 94% route participation, 4% target share, 7% air yards share
- Theo Johnson: 69% route participation, 10% target share, 5% air yards share
When thinking about Wan’Dale Robinson’s Week 2 performance, a Shaquille O’Neal quote comes to mind: “I owe you an apology, I wasn’t familiar with your game.” The narrative around Robinson for his whole career is that he’s a low aDOT player with no upside. That was true until last week when he caught 8-of-10 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. This feels like a classic sell-high spot given what we’ve seen from him in his career.
I will continue to buy shares of Malik Nabers, who boasts massive target (31%) and air yards (57%) shares. The Chiefs have historically been tough on opposing WR1s, but they have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Darius Slayton is essentially just running wind sprints for the Giants. He’s run a route on 94% of dropbacks, yet he’s seen 4% of the team’s targets. Given his target tree, I don’t mind looking his way in tournaments. I prefer Slayton over Theo Johnson, who has a tough matchup.
We heard that Cam Skattebo would be more involved in Week 2, and he was able to turn his 13 touches into 58 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Tyrone Tracy is still going to be involved in this backfield, but Skattebo is the player we should have more interest in when it comes to DFS, especially since they have similar price points on this Showdown slate. The Chiefs are currently 25th in EPA against the run this season.
The Chiefs aren’t a turnover-prone team, so I don’t love the spot for the Giants’ defense. I typically don’t love targeting kickers on teams that aren’t favored, but I could see this game being a low-scoring affair where both teams attempt a bunch of field goals. The double-kicker lineups are firmly in play this evening.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a great Showdown slate, although it’s tough at the multiplier positions. Both of these backfields have question marks when it comes to usage, and I don’t see Russell Wilson having a big game without bringing one of his wideouts with him. For that reason, Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback that I am considering at MVP/CPT. I also think that position can be used on receivers such as Malik Nabers, Hollywood Brown, and even Tyquan Thornton. This is also a slate where I am high on the kickers. I don’t mind using both Harrison Butker and Graham Gano in the same lineups.
Chiefs vs. Giants DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 20.92 | $10,400 | 2.01 | $13,000 | 1.61 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 19.27 | $11,000 | 1.75 | $13,600 | 1.42 |
| Russell Wilson | NYG | QB | 15.20 | $9,400 | 1.62 | $12,000 | 1.27 |
| Hollywood Brown | KC | WR | 15.01 | $8,400 | 1.79 | $10,400 | 1.44 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 12.85 | $8,000 | 1.61 | $9,600 | 1.34 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 12.09 | $7,400 | 1.63 | $8,600 | 1.41 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 10.97 | $7,000 | 1.57 | $6,800 | 1.61 |
| Tyrone Tracy | NYG | RB | 9.40 | $6,600 | 1.42 | $7,800 | 1.21 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 9.32 | $4,000 | 2.33 | $5,400 | 1.73 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 9.20 | $6,400 | 1.44 | $7,200 | 1.28 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 8.17 | $5,400 | 1.51 | $6,200 | 1.32 |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | 7.09 | $4,400 | 1.61 | $5,000 | 1.42 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 6.67 | $5,200 | 1.28 | $6,400 | 1.04 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 6.31 | $3,800 | 1.66 | $4,400 | 1.43 |
| Graham Gano | NYG | K | 6.23 | $5,000 | 1.25 | $6,000 | 1.04 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 5.80 | $2,000 | 2.90 | $3,000 | 1.93 |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | 5.62 | $3,200 | 1.76 | $4,000 | 1.41 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 5.59 | $3,400 | 1.64 | $5,800 | 0.96 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 4.18 | $4,200 | 1.00 | $3,400 | 1.23 |
Chiefs vs. Giants Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 3-4
Hollywood Brown more than 53.5 receiving yards (1.81x) – Sleeper Fantasy
With Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice out this season, Hollywood Brown has led the Chiefs with a 28% target share. He only saw 5 targets last week against the Eagles, but he had a brutal cornerback matchup. The Giants don’t have any imposing cornerbacks on their roster and have allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus