The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Steelers vs. Chargers
For this Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup on 11/9 featuring the Steelers vs. Chargers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Steelers vs. Chargers
We are back for a Sunday Night Football edition of the NFL Grind Down. The Steelers are 5-3 on the season and currently hold a 2-game lead in their division. The Ravens are hoping to close that gap soon, but Pittsburgh is in a good spot to win the division. The Chargers haven’t been great from a point differential (+22) standpoint, but they are 6-3 overall and firmly in the playoff mix in the AFC. Tonight’s game features a 4.5-point spread and a 45.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Omarion Hampton – Out
Hassan Haskins – Out
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
While the Steelers have a solid record and are coming off a win against the Colts, they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out. The offense is right around league average in terms of yards per game and points scored per game. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t offer any rushing upside at this stage of his career and has only topped 20 fantasy points twice this season. It’s hard to envision a ceiling game against the Chargers, who are top 10 in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh’s 2025 wideout usage:
- DK Metcalf: 85% route participation, 20% target share, 37% air yards share
- Calvin Austin: 73% route participation, 16% target share, 35% air yards share
- Roman Wilson: 33% route participation, 5% target share, 9% air yards share
- Jonnu Smith: 57% route participation, 13% target share, 9% air yards share
DK Metcalf has been the WR1 for the Steelers this season, but Calvin Austin has similar underlying usage. Metcalf has a 20% target share and a 37% air yards share, while Austin has a 16% target share and a 35% air yards share. It’s a difficult matchup for both, as the Chargers have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. I’ll side with the cheaper and lower-owned Austin over Metcalf in this spot.
The Steelers love to use a lot of two tight end sets, which is why their WR3 (Roman Wilson) has only run a route on 33% of dropbacks this season. Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington will all see significant snaps in this game, although their matchup isn’t much better than it is for the receivers. On the season, the Chargers have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Smith is my favorite since he’s affordable on both sites and runs a lot of routes.
Jaylen Warren has taken the lead role in this backfield, playing 60% of the snaps and averaging 18 opportunities per game this season. He hasn’t been a huge part of the passing game, but he does have at least 2 receptions in every game this season. A matchup against the Chargers is middling at best, but it’s certainly easier to run the ball on Los Angeles than it is to throw it against them.
The Steelers have not been good defensively this season, but the Chargers do give up a ton of sacks. At the very least, Pittsburgh’s defense is worth a look in large-field tournaments. Chris Boswell is a decent lineup filler, although he’s my 2nd-favorite kicking option from this game.
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Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Justin Herbert is having another elite season, and very few people seem to notice. He has topped 26 fantasy points in 3 straight games and has averaged 23 fantasy points per game on the season. He has rushing upside, elite weapons, and a nice matchup at home. The Steelers are 19th in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Herbert is close to a must-play on this slate and deserves consideration at MVP/CPT.
Los Angeles’ 2025 wideout usage:
- Ladd McConkey: 87% route participation, 22% target share, 26% air yards share
- Quentin Johnston: 85% route participation, 17% target share, 27% air yards share
- Keenan Allen: 69% route participation, 22% target share, 26% air yards share
- Oronde Gadsden: 63% route participation, 14% target share, 17% air yards share
Ladd McConkey got off to a slow start this season, but he has averaged 18 fantasy points over his last 5 games. He leads the team in slot routes, target share, and air yards share. Keenan Allen got off to a blazing start this season, but he has been held under 11 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. In terms of priority, I would rank them in the following order: McConkey, Johnston, and then Allen. It’s a great matchup, as the Steelers are dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Oronde Gadsden has come alive over the last 4 games, scoring 12, 19, 32, and 13 fantasy points. During that stretch, he has averaged more fantasy points than Johnston and Allen. The Steelers are just as bad at defending tight ends, as they have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to the position.
Kimani Vidal was the chalk that busted on the Week 9 main slate. He was only able to turn 13 opportunities into 30 yards from scrimmage. While it wasn’t great (especially in a good matchup), he doesn’t have much competition for touches, and he has already scored over 20 fantasy points twice this season. The Steelers are 21st in PFF’s grades against the run and 26th in EPA against the run.
The Chargers’ defense is viable here, as they have been excellent against the pass and are home favorites. Kicker Cameron Dicker could be one of the best point-per-dollar producers tonight. I expect the Chargers to move the ball easily here, but they could struggle to score touchdowns.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Try as I might, I can’t find a single player on the Steelers that I feel good about. Aaron Rodgers is a strong UTIL/FLEX target given the nature of Showdown slates, but I’m not sure whom to pair him with. The Chargers are one of the toughest defenses against wide receivers and tight ends. While I’m not expecting a blowout, I do find myself building Chargers onslaughts for this slate. All of their offense is viable, as are their defense and kicker.
Steelers vs. Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 21.52 | $10,600 | 2.03 | $13,800 | 1.56 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 15.10 | $9,600 | 1.57 | $11,800 | 1.28 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 14.91 | $9,400 | 1.59 | $12,200 | 1.22 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 14.65 | $9,000 | 1.63 | $8,400 | 1.74 |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | 13.31 | $8,800 | 1.51 | $10,600 | 1.26 |
| Oronde Gadsden | LAC | TE | 12.60 | $7,000 | 1.80 | $7,800 | 1.62 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 12.55 | $8,000 | 1.57 | $8,200 | 1.53 |
| D.K. Metcalf | PIT | WR | 12.36 | $8,400 | 1.47 | $11,400 | 1.08 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 12.20 | $7,600 | 1.61 | $9,200 | 1.33 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 9.17 | $6,200 | 1.48 | $6,200 | 1.48 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 8.82 | $5,400 | 1.63 | $6,600 | 1.34 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 8.62 | $5,000 | 1.72 | $7,000 | 1.23 |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 7.72 | $3,200 | 2.41 | $4,400 | 1.75 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 7.40 | $4,000 | 1.85 | $5,800 | 1.28 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 6.37 | $4,800 | 1.33 | $6,400 | 1.00 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 6.34 | $4,400 | 1.44 | $6,800 | 0.93 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 6.03 | $3,400 | 1.77 | $5,400 | 1.12 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | 4.53 | $2,000 | 2.27 | $3,200 | 1.42 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 4.31 | $3,000 | 1.44 | $3,600 | 1.20 |
Steelers vs. Chargers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 12-15
Cameron Dicker more than 1.5 field goals made (1.53x) – Sleeper Fantasy
For starters, Dicker has made at least 2 field goals in 6 of 9 games so far this season. In the 3 games where he didn’t make multiple field goals, the Chargers’ offense really struggled to put up points. That shouldn’t be an issue this week against the Steelers, who have been one of the worst defensive units in the NFL this season. Dicker is an accurate kicker, the game is indoors, and the Chargers are 6.5-point favorites.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus