The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Vikings vs. Cowboys
For this Week 15 Sunday Night Football matchup on 12/14 featuring the Vikings vs. Cowboys, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Vikings vs. Cowboys
Sunday night’s game isn’t as meaningful as the NFL might like, as playoff implications aren’t really on the line. The Vikings have been eliminated from the postseason, while the Cowboys currently have a 9% chance to make it into the playoffs after losing to the Lions at home last week. What the game lacks in meaning, it makes up for in potential fireworks. It features a 5.5-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Jake Ferguson – Questionable
Minnesota Vikings Preview
It’s been an ugly season for the Vikings’ quarterbacks. J.J. McCarthy has struggled, Carson Wentz tore his labrum, and Max Brosmer had one of the worst games you’ll ever see. With that said, McCarthy is coming off a solid performance against the Commanders, and he draws a nice matchup this week against the Cowboys. On the season, Dallas is 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I’m not looking to McCarthy at MVP and CPT, but he’s a strong UTIL play for Showdown.
Minnesota’s wideout usage (with McCarthy under center):
- Justin Jefferson: 93% route participation, 29% target share, 38% air yards share
- Jordan Addison: 87% route participation, 18% target share, 32% air yards share
- Jalen Nailor: 69% route participation, 11% target share, 21% air yards share
- T.J. Hockenson: 72% route participation, 14% target share, 10% air yards share
Justin Jefferson has dominated the team’s targets and air yards with McCarthy under center, but that hasn’t turned into the fantasy goodness that we’ve seen in the past. In fact, he has been held to 11 or fewer fantasy points in 5 straight games. The good news is that he’s cheaper than usual (for a Showdown slate) and that the Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Jordan Addison doesn’t have the same target share as Jefferson, but he has seen 32% of the team’s air yards with McCarthy at the helm. Jalen Nailor is a distant third on the team in both target share and air yards share. T.J. Hockenson has been quiet most of the season and doesn’t have as enticing a matchup as the receivers. The Cowboys are 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. If ranking the wideouts in terms of priority, I would go Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, and then Nailor.
Aaron Jones is not on the injury report this week, but he’s been playing through a shoulder injury. In the last 2 games, he has only played on 41% of the snaps. He’s also been held under 12 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games. It hasn’t been much better for Jordan Mason, who has only played on 30% of the snaps in the last 2 games. While the Cowboys are better equipped to stop the run after acquiring Quinnen Williams, they are 29th in EPA against the run and 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season.
The Vikings blitz as often as any team in the NFL and can generate a ton of pressure. Their defense is viable in large-field tournaments. Kicker Will Reichard is viable if you think this game is going to be competitive, but I generally don’t love targeting kickers on teams that are sizable underdogs.
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Dallas Cowboys Preview
Dak Prescott is having one of the best seasons of his career, and that has translated into some great fantasy outings. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in 9 of 13 games. He doesn’t offer much rushing upside, but he’ll run a touchdown in every handful of games. He does have a tough matchup here, as the Vikings are 6th in EPA allowed per dropback and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I still view Prescott as a must-play, and he’s on my short list for MVP and CPT targets.
Dallas’ wideout usage (2025):
- CeeDee Lamb: 74% route participation, 22% target share, 35% air yards share
- George Pickens: 87% route participation, 22% target share, 35% air yards share
- Ryan Flournoy: 39% route participation, 9% target share, 12% air yards share
- Jake Ferguson: 74% route participation, 18% target share, 11% air yards share
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have been 1A and 1B for the Cowboys this season. It’s wild that they have identical target (22%) and air yards (35%) shares on the season. Lamb suffered a concussion last game, but he’s been cleared and will suit up for tonight’s game against the Vikings, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Minnesota has started to use bracket coverage on opposing WR1s, so it’ll be interesting to see who they think is the WR1 on the Cowboys. Lamb runs more routes from the slot than Pickens, but either player could get doubled in this game. I like the idea of including exactly 1 of Lamb and Pickens in each lineup.
Ryan Flournoy is coming off a huge game, but most of his production came after Lamb left the game. The only positive for Flournoy here is that the Vikings should bracket Lamb or Pickens, so that could open up a few more targets for the ancillary wideouts like him and KaVontae Turpin. With the Vikings being so tough against receivers, they are naturally worse at defending tight ends (17th). Jake Ferguson hasn’t had a big game since the beginning of the season, but he has at least 5 receptions in 3 straight games. If he finds the end zone and gets 5+ catches again, he’ll certainly have an easy path to the optimal lineup.
Javonte Williams has had at least 19 touches in each of the last 4 games. The fantasy production has slowed, but that has more to do with a lack of touchdowns than a lack of volume. He’s in a good spot this week, as the Cowboys are 5.5-point home favorites. The Vikings have been average at best against the run, so Williams should have a clear path for 20+ touches once again. He’s a strong option in all formats. Malik Davis will back him up, but he doesn’t offer much fantasy appeal.
The Cowboys have really struggled defensively this season, but they are facing J.J. McCarthy as home favorites. At the very least, their defense is worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Brandon Aubrey has slate-breaking upside, which is rarely said about a kicker. He’s one of my favorite mid-range options on the slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
As noted earlier, the Vikings have used bracket coverage on opposing WR1s, especially in the second half of the season. They have held Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian Watson, and Rome Odunze in check recently. We don’t know whom they will bracket in this game, but it will be either CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens. For that reason, I like the idea of using exactly 1 of Lamb or Pickens in each lineup. The Minnesota side is tricky, but it’s hard not to like their matchup through the air and on the ground. Both defenses and both kickers are viable as well.
Vikings vs. Cowboys DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 22.67 | $10,400 | 2.18 | $12,400 | 1.83 |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 19.47 | $9,800 | 1.99 | $12,000 | 1.62 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | QB | 18.98 | $9,000 | 2.11 | $10,600 | 1.79 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 18.51 | $8,800 | 2.10 | $11,400 | 1.62 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 18.11 | $10,000 | 1.81 | $13,000 | 1.39 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 18.00 | $9,400 | 1.91 | $9,800 | 1.84 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 13.83 | $6,600 | 2.10 | $8,400 | 1.65 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 13.80 | $6,800 | 2.03 | $7,600 | 1.82 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 11.82 | $6,200 | 1.91 | $8,800 | 1.34 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 8.13 | $5,400 | 1.51 | $6,800 | 1.20 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 7.94 | $4,400 | 1.80 | $6,600 | 1.20 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 7.84 | $4,000 | 1.96 | $5,400 | 1.45 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 6.85 | $5,000 | 1.37 | $6,400 | 1.07 |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | 6.66 | $7,200 | 0.93 | $7,000 | 0.95 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 6.62 | $3,000 | 2.21 | $3,600 | 1.84 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 5.98 | $3,200 | 1.87 | $5,800 | 1.03 |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 5.93 | $4,800 | 1.24 | $4,800 | 1.24 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 5.02 | $3,400 | 1.48 | $6,200 | 0.81 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 2.94 | $2,800 | 1.05 | $1,200 | 2.45 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.08 | $1,600 | 1.30 | $1,600 | 1.30 |
| Malik Davis | DAL | RB | 1.98 | $2,400 | 0.83 | $3,000 | 0.66 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 1.38 | $400 | 3.45 | $1,400 | 0.99 |
| Tai Felton | MIN | WR | 1.14 | $1,000 | 1.14 | $1,000 | 1.14 |
Vikings vs. Cowboys Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 21-22
Javonte Williams more than 70.5 rushing yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are so close to being back above .500 on the season. That’s my goal the rest of the way. For tonight’s game, let’s go with Javonte Williams to get more than 70.5 rushing yards. He has cleared this mark in 8 of 13 games this season, and the Cowboys are 5.5-point home favorites. More importantly, the Vikings have been somewhat of a run-funnel matchup this season. They are 6th in EPA allowed per dropback and 19th in EPA against the run.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus