The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Jets vs. Patriots
For this Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup on 11/13 featuring the Jets vs. Patriots, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Jets vs. Patriots
We have another Thursday Night Football game to kick off Week 11. The Jets haven’t had the season that they hoped for after bringing in Aaron Glenn, but there seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel. They stacked up draft picks at the trade deadline and have won back-to-back games. The Patriots have won 7 games in a row and sit atop the AFC East. They are listed as 12.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 43.5 points.
Key Injuries (updated on Thursday)
Garrett Wilson – Out
Kayshon Boutte – Out
Rhamondre Stevenson – Out
Terrell Jennings – Questionable
Austin Hooper – Out
New York Jets Preview
The Jets winning back-to-back games certainly wasn’t expected, but I’m not a believer moving forward. They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and they traded away their best two defensive players at the trade deadline. Justin Fields has had quite the game log this season. He doesn’t have a single outing where he’s scored between 10 and 20 fantasy points. He’s been held under 10 fantasy points in 4 games and has topped 20 fantasy points in the other 4 games. He has a middling matchup against the Patriots. I view him as both a good fade and a good tournament play given his wide range of potential outcomes.
I usually like to break down the wideout usage of each offense, but the Jets’ top three wideouts for this game are expected to be Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith, and Adonai Mitchell, who have all seen very few snaps for New York this season. The Jets will want to run the ball as often as possible in this game. With that said, all of these receivers are extremely cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a mediocre matchup, as the Patriots are 19th in fantasy points allowed per game.
My favorite wideout by a significant margin is Mason Taylor. He’s actually run a bunch of routes this season, which can’t be said for the wide receivers the Jets are rolling out there on Thursday. Taylor has seen 17% of the team’s targets and 14% of the team’s air yards. I expect both of those numbers to go up after this game. The icing on the cake is his matchup, as the Patriots have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Breece Hall has had 21 and 22 touches in the last 2 games, but both of those were wins. As 12.5-point underdogs, this is not nearly as good a spot for Hall. To make matters worse, the Patriots are 4th in both EPA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Hall’s path to success is through the air, but he has only 5 receptions in the last 4 games combined. I plan to be underweight on Hall in tournaments.
The Jets’ defense had 2 touchdowns last week. Before that, they didn’t have a single game with double-digit fantasy points. I have no interest in them on this slate. The same goes for kicker Nick Folk, as the Jets are unlikely to settle for field goals if they are playing with a large deficit.
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New England Patriots Preview
After reeling off 7 straight wins, Drake Maye is now the frontrunner to win the MVP. There’s still a long way to go, but it shows the type of season that he’s having. He’s had a high floor and a high ceiling for DFS. He can get it done through the air and on the ground, which is great for Showdown. It allows us to feel good about using the quarterback at the multiplier positions (MVP/CPT). He has an elite matchup against the Jets, who are 26th in EPA allowed per dropback this season.
New England’s wideout usage (2025):
- Stefon Diggs: 64% route participation, 21% target share, 22% air-yards share
- Mack Hollins: 51% route participation, 12% target share, 16% air-yards share
- Kyle Williams: 23% route participation, 3% target share, 5% air-yards share
- Hunter Henry: 72% route participation, 16% target share, 16% air-yards share
Kayshon Boutte was unable to suit up in Week 10, so we’ll see if he can get back on the field following a short week. If not, Kyle Williams will round out 3-receiver sets. In Boutte’s absence last week, Williams ran a route on 53% of dropbacks and caught 2 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. Stefon Diggs leads the team in target share and air yards share. He’s caught a touchdown in 3 straight games and won’t have to deal with Sauce Gardner, who was traded to the Colts.
Mack Hollins is coming off his best game of the season. He caught 6-of-10 targets for 106 yards. The Jets have not been good against the pass this season, so we shouldn’t be surprised if Hollins gets open behind this secondary. Hunter Henry was the chalk that busted on the Week 10 main slate. It’ll be interesting to see if that impacts his ownership on this Showdown slate. He draws a nice matchup, as the Jets are 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t suit up last week. In his absence, Treveyon Henderson hosted a breakout party for himself. He turned 15 touches into 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. The most impressive part is that he did it against the Buccaneers, who have an elite run defense. Stevenson practiced on a limited basis on Tuesday, so we’ll have to see whether or not he can suit up this week. If he does, we’ll likely see close to a 50/50 split. If he’s out, Henderson becomes one of the best plays on the slate. The Jets were already bad against the run, and they just traded away their best run stopper, Quinnen Williams.
Update: Stevenson has been ruled out. Henderson is one of my favorite targets at MVP/CPT
The Patriots’ defense has been solid this season. They are facing a bad offensive line, a quarterback who takes a lot of sacks, and a bunch of 3rd-string wide receivers. Oh, and they are playing as 12.5-point home favorites. Kicker Andy Borregales is also a strong option, as the Patriots should be in scoring position a lot in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Ladies and gentlemen, get those onslaught lineups ready. The Patriots should absolutely roll, especially since it’s a short week. Drake Maye is in a great spot, and we could have a tighter target tree if Kayshon Boutte is unable to suit up. The running game should dominate, and it’ll be easy to lock in Treveyon Henderson if Rhamondre Stevenson is ruled out. And finally, I love New England’s defense and kicker. My lineups will have one player from the Jets.
Jets vs. Patriots DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 22.06 | $12,000 | 1.84 | $13,800 | 1.60 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 17.15 | $10,600 | 1.62 | $11,400 | 1.50 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 15.24 | $10,200 | 1.49 | $11,800 | 1.29 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | QB | 15.13 | $9,400 | 1.61 | $12,400 | 1.22 |
| Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 14.93 | $9,800 | 1.52 | $10,200 | 1.46 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 10.74 | $5,400 | 1.99 | $8,200 | 1.31 |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 8.88 | $5,800 | 1.53 | $5,400 | 1.64 |
| Andy Borregales | NE | K | 8.79 | $5,000 | 1.76 | $6,800 | 1.29 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 8.65 | $6,200 | 1.40 | $4,800 | 1.80 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 8.62 | $6,600 | 1.31 | $7,000 | 1.23 |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | TE | 8.37 | $4,000 | 2.09 | $7,400 | 1.13 |
| Nick Folk | NYJ | K | 6.39 | $4,600 | 1.39 | $6,000 | 1.07 |
| Tyler Johnson | NYJ | WR | 6.20 | $3,400 | 1.82 | $5,600 | 1.11 |
| Kyle Williams | NE | WR | 5.80 | $2,000 | 2.90 | $5,200 | 1.12 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 5.71 | $3,200 | 1.78 | $6,200 | 0.92 |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ | RB | 5.56 | $4,200 | 1.32 | $4,600 | 1.21 |
| John Metchie | NYJ | WR | 4.76 | $1,000 | 4.76 | $1,800 | 2.64 |
| Terrell Jennings | NE | RB | 4.39 | $3,600 | 1.22 | $3,800 | 1.16 |
| Arian Smith | NYJ | WR | 4.23 | $1,600 | 2.64 | $3,000 | 1.41 |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | WR | 3.40 | $3,000 | 1.13 | $4,200 | 0.81 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 3.31 | $2,800 | 1.18 | $2,400 | 1.38 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 2.52 | $600 | 4.20 | $2,000 | 1.26 |
Jets vs. Patriots Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 14-15
Breece Hall less than 62.5 rushing yards (1.68x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We only need one more win to get back to .500 on the season. It’s been a grind, but we are trending in the right direction. For Thursday night, we are going with Breece Hall to get less than 62.5 rushing yards. He has rushed for 83 and 123 yards in the last 2 games, but game script was in his favor, as the Jets picked up wins in both of those games. In New York’s last 6 losses, Hall has averaged 53 rushing yards and has been held under 60 rushing yards in 4 of those games. As 12.5-point underdogs, the Jets are unlikely to run the ball 25 times in this game. It’s a tough matchup too, as the Patriots are 4th in EPA against the run and 1st in rushing yards allowed per game.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus