The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Raiders vs. Broncos
For this Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup on 11/6 featuring the Raiders vs. Broncos, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Raiders vs. Broncos
Week 10 is officially here! We are a few short weeks away from the Thanksgiving slate, which is everyone’s favorite of the season. Until then, let’s continue to grind out these Showdown slates. The Raiders are coming off a tough overtime loss to the Jaguars and have dropped to 2-6 on the season. The Broncos have won 6 games in a row and currently sit atop the AFC West. This looks like a mismatch on paper, and the Broncos are listed as 8.5-point favorites. The game features a total of 41.5 points.
Key Injuries (updated on Tuesday)
Jakobi Meyers – Traded
Marvin Mims – Questionable
Nate Adkins – Questionable
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
Fresh off the bye last week, Geno Smith had his best fantasy outing of the season. He threw for 284 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Jaguars. He has a much tougher draw this week, as the Broncos are 4th in EPA allowed per dropback and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. It doesn’t help that the game is in Denver, which is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Smith is viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but I prefer to look elsewhere at the multiplier positions.
Las Vegas’ wideout usage (2025):
- Tre Tucker: 91% route participation, 18% target share, 24% air-yards share
- Tyler Lockett: 46% route participation, 7% target share, 6% air-yards share
- Jack Bech: 22% route participation, 3% target share, 5% air-yards share
- Brock Bowers: 77% route participation, 24% target share, 22% air-yards share
Jakobi Meyers was traded to the Jaguars, which opens up a lot of routes, targets, and air yards for the other wideouts. Tre Tucker has quietly put together a nice season and will now be the clear WR1 for the Raiders. I will note that he has only lined up in the slot 17% of the time this season, so he might see a lot of Patrick Surtain in this one. I’m still interested, given his cheap price point. Tyler Lockett, Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton should all see an uptick in snaps.
We’ve been waiting for the Brock Bowers breakout game all season, and it finally came last week against the Jaguars. He caught 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and 3 touchdowns. He looks completely healthy, so we can expect him to go on a nice run in the second half of the season. This isn’t the best matchup (the Broncos are 8th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends), but Bowers will soak up targets with Meyers gone. Michael Mayer is an interesting buy-low candidate in tournaments after everyone saw the massive game from Bowers last week.
Ashton Jeanty hasn’t been as good as everyone expected before the season started or as bad as people are making him out to be. He’s topped 15 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games and continues to get more work in the passing game. The problem this week is a matchup against the Broncos, who are 3rd in PFF’s grades against the run, 7th in EPA against the run, and 5th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. If fading them on the road against the Broncos is why I lose on this slate, so be it. I’ll also fade kicker Daniel Carlson, as I’m not sure Las Vegas will be able to settle for field goals in this game.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Denver Broncos Preview
The Broncos are on a roll right now and have a clear path to an AFC West title. Bo Nix has looked good as a runner when the Broncos have had to erase some deficits. He offers rushing upside and has topped 18 fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season. Game script is always a concern for a quarterback when the team is more than a touchdown favorite, but Nix is close to a must-play on this Showdown slate. The Raiders are 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Denver’s wideout usage (2025):
- Courtland Sutton: 81% route participation, 19% target share, 31% air-yards share
- Troy Franklin: 74% route participation, 19% target share, 35% air-yards share
- Marvin Mims: 46% route participation, 11% target share, 19% air-yards share
- Evan Engram: 52% route participation, 13% target share, 8% air-yards share
Courtland Sutton has only topped 100 receiving yards one time this season and has only scored a total of 14 touchdowns. His target share (19%) is certainly lacking compared to other elite receivers, but he has had a string of difficult cornerback matchups. That won’t be an issue against the Raiders, who have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Troy Franklin has seen the same number of targets as Sutton and is cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Marvin Mims suffered a concussion last week and is listed as questionable for this game. We haven’t seen many players get cleared for the next game often, so I doubt Mims will get cleared on a short week. If he’s out, Pat Bryant and Michael Bandy will see an uptick in snaps. Evan Engram has only run a route on 52% of dropbacks this season, while the Raiders have allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. I prefer Denver’s wide receivers.
J.K. Dobbins has been the feature back for the Broncos this season, but RJ Harvey has had a decent role in the offense. Both running backs are worth a look on this slate, as the Raiders are 28th in PFF’s grades against the run and 19th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. If you are playing the blowout angle, I would certainly get exposure to one or both of these backs.
The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They can get pressure on the quarterback, and they can generate turnovers. Denver’s defense is firmly in play against Geno Smith, who has had one of the highest turnover-worthy throw rates in the NFL. Kicker Will Lutz is also a strong option on this Showdown slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
There are a few players on the Raiders that stick out on this slate, but I want to have more exposure to the Broncos in my lineups. In other words, my builds will certainly lean in favor of Denver players. The full onslaught with the defense and kicker is viable here, as this game features a large spread. For CPT/MVP, I like Bo Nix, Troy Franklin, J.K. Dobbins, Brock Bowers, and Tre Tucker.
Raiders vs. Broncos DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 19.38 | $10,600 | 1.83 | $13,800 | 1.40 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | 17.02 | $10,200 | 1.67 | $12,200 | 1.40 |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE | 14.46 | $9,800 | 1.48 | $12,000 | 1.21 |
| Geno Smith | LV | QB | 13.96 | $9,000 | 1.55 | $11,400 | 1.22 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | 13.35 | $8,600 | 1.55 | $10,600 | 1.26 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 12.73 | $9,600 | 1.33 | $9,800 | 1.30 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 11.49 | $7,600 | 1.51 | $7,800 | 1.47 |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 9.62 | $7,000 | 1.37 | $8,200 | 1.17 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 9.34 | $6,800 | 1.37 | $7,200 | 1.30 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | 9.18 | $5,600 | 1.64 | $7,600 | 1.21 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 8.51 | $5,400 | 1.58 | $6,800 | 1.25 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 8.16 | $5,000 | 1.63 | $6,600 | 1.24 |
| Evan Engram | DEN | TE | 8.08 | $4,400 | 1.84 | $5,600 | 1.44 |
| Daniel Carlson | LV | K | 7.39 | $4,800 | 1.54 | $6,400 | 1.15 |
| Jack Bech | LV | WR | 7.32 | $2,000 | 3.66 | $3,400 | 2.15 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 7.22 | $4,000 | 1.81 | $5,000 | 1.44 |
| Raiders | LV | DST | 4.00 | $3,600 | 1.11 | $6,000 | 0.67 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 3.83 | $2,800 | 1.37 | $4,600 | 0.83 |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | 3.44 | $3,200 | 1.08 | $3,800 | 0.91 |
| Raheem Mostert | LV | RB | 3.34 | $2,400 | 1.39 | $2,600 | 1.28 |
| Tyler Lockett | LV | WR | 3.28 | $3,000 | 1.09 | $4,200 | 0.78 |
| Tyler Badie | DEN | RB | 3.24 | $1,400 | 2.31 | $2,000 | 1.62 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 2.39 | $1,600 | 1.49 | $1,800 | 1.33 |
| Dont’e Thornton Jr. | LV | WR | 2.26 | $1,200 | 1.88 | $3,000 | 0.75 |
Raiders vs. Broncos Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 11-14
Ashton Jeanty less than 2.5 receptions (1.73x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We got back on track with Michael Wilson on Monday night, but we still have a ways to go to get back above .500 on the season. I usually like the more than markets in pick’em, but I don’t feel good about any of them in this game. Instead, I’ll go with Ashton Jeanty to have less than 2.5 receptions. He’s been more involved in the passing game recently, but he’s only run a route on 44% of dropbacks this season. More importantly, the Broncos have allowed the fewest receptions (23) of any team to running backs this season.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus