The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Steelers vs. Bengals
For this Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/16 featuring the Steelers vs. Bengals, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Steelers vs. Bengals
Week 7 is already here, and we are inching closer to Halloween. The NFL is leaning into the spooky theme, as they decided to roll out the Steelers and Bengals on Thursday night. The Steelers are somehow 4-1 in the standings despite a point differential of +12, while the Bengals have lost 4 games in a row and are quickly falling out of playoff contention. A matchup between these two teams would typically be low scoring, but both of these defenses have struggled this season. Even though the starting quarterbacks are 81 years old combined, this game features a healthy total of 43.5 points.
Key Injuries (Updated Thursday at 5:00 PM ET)
Calvin Austin – Out
Mike Gesicki – Out
Tanner Hudson – Out
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
I don’t want to diminish the 4-1 start for 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, but he’s 39th in PFF’s quarterback grades and 22nd in yards per attempt this season. He’s essentially more of a game manager than a game winner at this stage of his career. It’s still impressive, but he hasn’t been a great option for DFS. He’s been held under 13 fantasy points in 3 of his 5 games this season and has only averaged 16 fantasy points per game. I usually call quarterbacks close to must-plays on Showdown slates, but Rodgers is far from that in this game. He’s viable as a UTIL/FLEX, but there are better targets at MVP/CPT.
Pittsburgh’s wideout usage (2025):
- D.K. Metcalf: 86% route participation, 22% target share, 40% air yards share
- Calvin Austin: 75% route participation, 15% target share, 47% air yards share
- Jonnu Smith: 57% route participation, 14% target share, 3% air yards share
- Pat Freiermuth: 44% route participation, 8% target share, 11% air yards share
The Bengals are 27th in EPA allowed per dropback and 24th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, so this is a great spot on paper for the Steelers wideouts. It’s also a positive that there are really only two receivers on the team who get targets. D.K. Metcalf leads the team in route participation and target share, while Calvin Austin leads the way in air yards share. Metcalf is looking for his 5th game in a row with a touchdown reception and is a strong option on this slate. I should note that Austin missed Tuesday’s practice and is looking like he could miss this game. If he’s out, Scott Miller and Roman Wilson will become decent punts.
Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth cut into each other’s playing time, but they have combined for 22% of the team’s targets. Smith has run more routes than Freiermuth, but his targets have mostly come near the line of scrimmage (3% air yards share). Freiermuth is seeing fewer targets, but he has 11% of the team’s air yards. It’s an elite matchup for both, as the Bengals are dead last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
Jaylen Warren has yet to put together a huge fantasy outing, but he has seen at least 11 carries in every game and boasts a 12% target share this season. He has played on 58% of the snaps and has averaged 17 opportunities per game. This is his best matchup to date, as the Bengals are 27th in EPA against the run and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson combined for 18 touches last week, which does make me hit the brakes when it comes to locking in Warren on this slate.
Joe Flacco is no stranger to an interception and is only making his 2nd start with the Bengals since being traded last week. The Steelers are 4th in PFF’s pass rush grades, so there is certainly a path for them to create some turnovers and sacks in this one. Kicker Chris Boswell has had multiple field goal attempts in 4 of 5 games so far this season.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
This hasn’t been the season the Bengals drew up. Joe Burrow had to undergo surgery and isn’t going to suit up again until late in the season (if at all). The team was hoping Jake Browning could keep the ship afloat, but they quickly gave up on that pipe dream. They traded for Joe Flacco early last week. While I love the trade for Cincinnati’s pass catchers, I’m not sure it will move the needle in terms of how many wins we can expect from this team. Flacco actually looked pretty sharp in a tough matchup on the road against the Packers last week, so this could be a good spot for him if the offensive line holds up. This season, the Steelers have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Cincinnati’s wideout usage (2025):
- Ja’Marr Chase: 91% route participation, 27% target share, 40% air yards share
- Tee Higgins: 86% route participation, 17% target share, 32% air yards share
- Andrei Iosivas: 72% route participation, 8% target share, 11% air yards share
- Noah Fant: 31% route participation, 10% target share, 4% air yards share
In years past, we’ve seen Ja’Marr Chase be the 1A and Tee Higgins be the 1B. After winning the Triple Crown in 2024, Chase is now in a tier of his own. He has continued that this season, boasting a 27% target share and a 40% air yards share. He made a ridiculous touchdown catch against the Packers last week and finished with 10 receptions and 94 yards in his first game with Flacco under center. The Steelers no longer have a top-tier defense and have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Tee Higgins still has decent underlying usage metrics and saw 8 targets in his first game with Flacco. If building multiple lineups, it makes sense to get some exposure to both of these talented receivers. Andrei Iosivas is on the field a ton, but he’s not a huge target earner. I’d rather take a chance on either of the tight ends in this offense. With Mike Gesicki out last week, Noah Fant and Tanner Hudson combined to catch 8 of his 9 targets. As we saw in Cleveland, Flacco can support multiple tight ends. If Hudson is out, Drew Sample will become a strong value.
It’s been tough sledding for Chase Brown this season. He has only averaged 2.7 yards per carry and is 72nd in PFF’s running back grades. After having a workhorse role to start the season, Samaje Perine has really cut into his touches. In last week’s game against the Packers, Brown played on 53% of the snaps and had 11 opportunities, while Perine played on 47% of the snaps and had 9 opportunities. At almost half the price of Brown, I might end up with more shares of Perine on this slate.
The Bengals defense is putrid. They could always run like the sun and force a turnover in this game, but I will not be prioritizing them on this slate. Kicker Evan McPherson missed 2 field goals last week and hasn’t made more than 1 field goal in any game so far this season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
When the Steelers and Bengals square off, I generally have interest in the defenses and kickers. On this slate, I am prioritizing the skill position players over the defenses and kickers. I could potentially use Chris Boswell as a lineup filler, but that’s about it. We have two pure pocket passers at quarterback, which means if they have a big game, they will likely bring one of their receivers with them. In other words, it’ll be easier for the wideouts to hit 25+ fantasy points than it will be for the quarterbacks. I’ll have exposure to Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco at UTIL/FLEX, but I plan to look elsewhere at the MVP/CPT spots.
Steelers vs. Bengals DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 17.57 | $12,000 | 1.46 | $13,200 | 1.33 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 15.38 | $9,800 | 1.57 | $12,600 | 1.22 |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | QB | 14.55 | $9,400 | 1.55 | $11,200 | 1.30 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 13.52 | $8,000 | 1.69 | $10,600 | 1.28 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 13.41 | $8,400 | 1.60 | $9,200 | 1.46 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 11.92 | $10,000 | 1.19 | $8,600 | 1.39 |
| D.K. Metcalf | PIT | WR | 11.76 | $10,400 | 1.13 | $12,200 | 0.96 |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 9.45 | $4,000 | 2.36 | $5,600 | 1.69 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 9.12 | $5,400 | 1.69 | $6,800 | 1.34 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 8.83 | $6,400 | 1.38 | $6,600 | 1.34 |
| Noah Fant | CIN | TE | 7.85 | $3,600 | 2.18 | $5,000 | 1.57 |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | K | 7.56 | $5,000 | 1.51 | $6,200 | 1.22 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 7.02 | $5,800 | 1.21 | $7,200 | 0.98 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 6.25 | $3,200 | 1.95 | $6,000 | 1.04 |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | 5.79 | $4,400 | 1.32 | $3,200 | 1.81 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 5.17 | $6,800 | 0.76 | $7,000 | 0.74 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 5.05 | $2,800 | 1.80 | $3,600 | 1.40 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 4.63 | $3,000 | 1.54 | $4,600 | 1.01 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 4.04 | $2,000 | 2.02 | $2,400 | 1.68 |
| Scotty Miller | PIT | WR | 3.15 | $1,000 | 3.15 | $1,200 | 2.63 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | 2.99 | $1,200 | 2.49 | $1,600 | 1.87 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 2.39 | $600 | 3.98 | $1,400 | 1.71 |
| Kaleb Johnson | PIT | RB | 2.22 | $2,400 | 0.93 | $2,600 | 0.85 |
| Mitch Tinsley | CIN | WR | 1.61 | $800 | 2.01 | $1,200 | 1.34 |
Steelers vs. Bengals Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 6-11
Tee Higgins more than 46.5 receiving yards (1.73x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This feels like a great opportunity to buy low on Higgins, both in DFS and in Pick’em. His receiving total is set at only 46.5 yards, which is extremely low for a player who has averaged at least 77 yards per game in each of the last 3 seasons. I know Joe Burrow is out, but Joe Flacco is an upgrade over Jake Browning. Higgins caught 5 of his 6 targets for 63 yards in his first game with Flacco and draws a better matchup this week against the Steelers at home.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus