Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's Lineup Advice: Week 1
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2.
Showdown slates are fun, but there’s nothing like a full slate of Sunday football games. Week 1 brings a 12-game slate on DraftKings and a 13-game slate (including the Sunday Night game) and new yardage bonuses on FanDuel. It’s time to pick a quarterback, get your stack on, and fill out a full roster (or 150) of players for Sunday. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for Squirrelpatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 1)
Cheap Young QBs Everywhere
The first thing I did this summer when I saw that pricing for the Week 1 of NFL came out was check the price on Anthony Richardson. I love quarterbacks who can run, who are cheap, and who play indoors, and Richardson checks all the boxes. I also think people could be underestimating his upside potential looking at the game log from his rookie season, as he missed some time due to injury even in the games he played in. Richardson is playing at home in one of the highest point total games on the slate, he has affordable stacking partners (who could get a boost for their price due to Josh Downs missing this game), and he is one of my primary QB targets this week.
Richardson isn’t the only young QB who is underpriced this week. Caleb Williams was the first pick in this past April’s draft by Chicago, and the Bears are already 3.5-point favorites at home against Tennessee on Sunday. Williams has good receiving options as well, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze all projecting well. Odunze is particularly underpriced on DraftKings. Jayden Daniels has similar rushing upside to Anthony Richardson at $600 less on DraftKings, and a solid stacking partner in Terry McLaurin. I’ll be including both young QBs in my multi-entry lineup set, but if their popularity rises too much, I could end up under the field.
One additional QB worth looking at is Josh Allen at home facing the Cardinals. Buffalo has a 27-point implied total that is the highest on the slate this week. I can’t remember a time when a highly productive quarterback for the team with the highest implied point total was getting discussed less on a slate than Josh Allen this week. Part of that is due to his price- he is the most expensive quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings- and part of that is because of uncertainty with his receivers after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis this offseason. Still, Josh Allen’s current receiving corps is surprisingly affordable, without a single WR priced above $5,100, and he is a good way to get different in smaller field or single entry contests without taking on too much uncertainty.
QB Prop Comp:
Anthony Richardson – Over/Under 224.5 passing yards, Over/Under 43.5 rushing yards, +125 Anyime TD, $6,300, 14.6% pOwn%
Deshaun Watson – Over/Under 221.5 passing yards, Over/Under 20.5 rushing yards, +320 Anytime TD, $6,000, 0.73% pOwn%
Anthony Richardson projects well this week and his player props are priced accordingly, but Deshaun Watson has numbers that are comparable at a cheaper price and a small fraction of the pOwn%. Watson is playing at home, and Cleveland is favored over Dallas by 2.5 points. He has Amari Cooper as a stacking partner and could be completely overlooked on Sunday.
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