Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 2
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 2 brings as big a slate as you can see in this era, with 13 games on DraftKings and 14 games (including the Sunday Night game) on FanDuel. Despite the large size, it’s a slate that could be defined by who is not on the slate. With no Josh Allen available at QB, Tyreek Hill at WR, Bijan Robinson or Christian McCaffrey available at RB, we can see in our NFL DFS optimizer that we’re missing some of the most expensive players at each position. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 2)
Fading the Chalk at QB
With Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts off the Main Slate this week, we’re left with Lamar Jackson as the most expensive player at the position in a matchup with a low 41.5-point total against the Raiders. After Jackson, we’re left Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford, two quarterbacks with a heavy passing approach who are in good game environments, and quarterbacks with rushing upside like Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, and Daniel Jones in less desirable environments. Mahomes is currently projected for the highest pOWN% playing at home against the Bengals after an opening win against the Ravens, and Jayden Daniels is drawing the next highest pOWN% after displaying his rushing upside with 88 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs in Week 1.
While both Mahomes and Daniels are in fine spots – they wouldn’t be drawing heavy pOWN% if they weren’t – I’m not interested in matching the field with double-digit ownership of either QB, and I’m interested in other options even for smaller field, single entry contests. Mahomes went for over 22 DK points only 3 times in 16 games during the regular season last year, and 0 times after October. The Kansas City offense is multifaceted and creative in finding ways to score, utilizing wide receivers in the running game, making ample use of their running backs, and spreading out targets to pass catchers you would never think to use in a DFS lineup, which is fantastic for real football and a nightmare for fantasy. Jayden Daniels is underpriced for his rushing upside but is also playing a game with a 43-point total. He put up only 184 passing yards with no passing touchdowns last week. If he didn’t find the end zone twice on the ground last week, we’d likely be having a different discussion about his performance.
I’m interested in spreading out my exposure at the QB position this week, and there are a lot of places we can go, but I’m primarily interested in being indoors. The NO/DAL, TB/DET, SF/MIN, and LAR/ARI games are all being played in domes, all have high point totals, and all have competent QBs (some at lower prices) capable of putting up big games. Dak Prescott is a QB I’m interested in being over the field on, projected at around 3% pOWN%. The Cowboys passing offense looked pedestrian in Week 1, with Dak throwing for just 179 yards, but Cleveland allowed the fewest total yards and passing yards in the NFL last season. The Dallas offense should look better at home against New Orleans.
Jared Goff is another QB projected around 3% pOWN% I’d like to be over the field on. Similar to Kansas City, Detroit has a number of offensive weapons. But against a Tampa Bay defense that gave up the 4th most passing yards per game but the 5th fewest rushing yards last season, the most likely plan of attack is through the passing game. Goff is cheap, playing at home indoors, and the Lions have the highest implied point total on the slate.
QB Prop Comp:
Patrick Mahomes – Over/Under 271.5 passing yards, Over/Under 19.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-180), +330 Anytime TD, $7,000, 16.9% pOWN%
Jared Goff – Over/Under 268.5 passing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-165), +600 Anytime TD, $6,400, 2.95% pOWN%
The prop market likes Patrick Mahomes a bit better in each category than Jared Goff, and Mahomes has a bit of rushing upside, but in DFS, you’re paying in both salary and pOWN% for numbers that aren’t all that much better than Goff. The Lions have a higher implied point total (29.5) than the Chiefs (27.0), and they’re playing at home indoors against a passing defense that allowed the 4th most passing yards per game last season.
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