Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 4
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 4 brings us 12 games on DraftKings and 13 games (including the Sunday Night matchup between Baltimore and Buffalo) on FanDuel. The slate features one game with a total over 47 points (WAS/ARI) but is increasingly being defined by injury uncertainty. Players like Davante Adams and DeVonta Smith have already been declared out, while Chris Olave, Joe Mixon, and A.J. Brown are either coming or going with questionable tags. This slate has a basketball-ish feel with some of the injury situations likely to come down to Sunday morning, so be sure to follow the RotoGrinders’ NFL starting lineups page for updated depth chart information as inactives hit for the latest details in case there are any surprises. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Sleeper promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 4)
Two QBs Running In The Desert
The two QBs with the highest pOWN% are Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come in with even higher ownership than projected. The WAS/ARI game is the best environment on the slate, featuring the highest total of the week (49.0), two running QBs, and a close spread. Between the two QBs, I have a slight preference for Jayden Daniels. Although he is the road underdog QB, he adds more rushing yards at a lower price, and he could be passing more if Washington is playing from behind. With his rushing upside and playing with a seemingly terrible defense, we could be paying much more for Daniels as the season goes on.
Beyond the WAS/ARI game, there are still some additional QBs I’m interested in, particularly for multi-entry contests this week. C.J. Stroud is playing at home in Houston against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 3rd-most passing yards per game this season and got lit up on Monday night against Buffalo. Stroud is down a receiver with Tank Dell out for this game, but he may get Joe Mixon back in the running game, and he may be easier to stack in our lineups with the passing offense being more concentrated between Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Speaking of clear stacking partners, Joe Burrow just put up 324 passing yards and 3 TDs against Washington on Monday, with 118 of those yards and 2 of the TDs going to Ja’Marr Chase. While Burrow won’t get to face Washington this Sunday, he is facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the most points per game this year, and the Andy Dalton-led Carolina offense may keep the Bengals passing deeper into the game than they otherwise would.
One QB who could go completely overlooked, with just 2.82 pOWN% on DraftKings, is Brock Purdy. San Francisco may finally be getting a play maker back on offense with George Kittle returning, and the 49ers are facing a Patriots defense that allows the 5th-fewest rushing yards but the 6th-most passing yards per game in the NFL this season. Purdy and the 49ers have the 4th-highest implied point total on the week (25.0), and with 280.7 passing yards per game, Purdy is the only QB in the league averaging more than 270 passing yards this season.
QB Prop Comp:
Kyler Murray – Over/Under 232.5 passing yards, Over/Under 34.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-150), 26.25 Team Implied Point Total, $6,800, 13.90% pOWN%
Jayden Daniels – Over/Under 212.5 passing yards, Over/Under 47.5 rushing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (+135), 22.75 Team Implied Point Total, $6,500, 17.29% pOWN%
Looking at the prop market, we can see how closely Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels compare across rushing and passing categories. Despite being the underdog, I’ll likely follow the field in rostering the rushing of Daniels at a rate a bit higher than Murray.
Injury Impacts at RB
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
