Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 4 Monday Night Football
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Our NFL week concludes with a Monday Night Football doubleheader for the second week in a row in Week 4, with the Titans visiting the Dolphins (Dolphins -2.5, 37.0) starting at 7:30 PM ET, followed shortly by the Seahawks against the Lions (Lions -4.0, 47.0), kicking off at 8:15 PM ET. Last week, our 2-gamer featured 3 out of the 4 teams put up 33 points or more, as the Commanders won a 38-33 shootout with the Bengals, while the Bills demolished the Jaguars 47-10. We may not see that level of scoring this week, with 3 of the 4 teams carrying an implied point total under 21.5, but as we see in the NFL every week, we don’t know what will happen until we play the games. Even though it’s just 2 games, we’ve got full NFL DFS projections ready to go and Expert Tags in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.
Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 4 Monday Night Football)
Hawks QB Sea-ing High pOWN%
A 2-game slate means we only have four QBs to choose from, but one QB is dominating pOWN%. Geno Smith is currently projected to be on 34.82% of DraftKings rosters, and this looks like chalk I want to be under the field on. Seattle has looked good going undefeated so far this season, but beating the Patriots, Broncos, and Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins may not be as impressive as their 3-0 record indicates. Detroit is the favored team in that game, and their defense has allowed the 8th-fewest yards/game and points/game this season. In multi-entry contests, I’ll likely take some of the pOWN% going to Geno and spread it among the other three QBs available, and in single-entry contests I think it’s worth the risk to pass over the Seattle QB in favor of either Jared Goff or Tyler Huntley.
An interesting lesson from last week’s 2-game MNF slate was that QB ended up not being much of a differentiator in winning lineups. Looking at last week’s 2-game contest on DraftKings, the top 3 lineups in the large-field contest all rostered different QBs, with Joe Burrow landing on the winning lineup despite being outscored by Josh Allen. Perhaps more important than who I prefer as QB is how I’ll shape my roster around my QB. After I select the QB for my roster, the rest of my lineup will depend heavily on the QB that I select – not just in terms of stacking partners but in terms of total projected roster ownership. Once the games start, there is a good chance one of these games will end up much higher scoring than the other. To capture the upside from either game blowing past its total, I’ll make sure to pair my QB with 3 or 4 RB/WR/TEs from the same game. For non-rushing QBs like Goff, I’ll also likely pair my QB with at least 2 of his own receivers. For QBs that can rack up yards and touchdowns on the ground like Tyler Huntley, I’ll still require at least one receiver from the QB’s team.
For my multi-entry set, I will aim to get over the field on both…
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