Hittin' The Nuts - Squirrelpatrol's Lineup Advice for Wild Card Weekend (Sunday/Monday Slate)
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 90+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2.
The NFL playoffs continue a bit later than we expected on Sunday, with the PIT/BUF game, that was originally scheduled for Sunday, moved to Monday at 4:30 PM ET. The sites have handled this differently. DraftKings is simply including the game on the original slate with no other changes. FanDuel is also including the game, however, they have now added the PHI/TB Monday Night game as well.
Either way, the Sunday slate for both sites kicks off at 4:30 PM ET, with the Packers visiting the Cowboys in a game with a 50.5-point total where Green Bay is a touchdown underdog. That game is followed by the Rams visiting the Lions in a game with a 51.5-point total and the Lions favored by 3 points, as Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff face their old teams.
Both sites continue the slate on Monday at 4:30 PM ET, with the Steelers visiting frigid Buffalo to play the Bills as 10-point underdogs in the game with the lowest total on the slate. As noted above, things end there on DraftKings. But for FanDuel, they have added the PHI/TB game, where Philadelphia is a 3-point road favorite in a game with a 43-point total.
Now that we’ve gotten the schedule sorted out, let’s dig into the slate and figure out what to do with our lineups.
NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Squirrelpatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ for Wild Card Weekend (Sunday/Monday Slate)
You Can’t Go Home Again
We have more quarterbacks to choose from on these Sunday/Monday slates compared to the 2-game slate on Saturday, but my basic strategy remains the same. I’ll focus on the games and offenses that I think can be the highest scoring on the slate, and I’ll game stack my quarterback accordingly. My read on this slate is fairly straightforward for both smaller-field and larger-field contests. The Cowboys and Packers both have capable offenses, but Dallas should be able to control this game, as evidenced by the 7-point spread. And they’ll likely opt to control it on the ground facing a Packers defense that gave up the 5th-most rushing yards per game this season. Jordan Love and Dak Prescott can always put up a big game, and they’ll be represented in my multi-entry build, but with Dak projected as the highest-owned QB on both sites this weekend, I’ll likely be under the field.
We have Josh Allen projected as the 2nd-highest owned QB on both sites, and even though the weather should be slightly better with that game now moved to Monday, I expect to be well under his projected ownership. It’s true that the total in this game jumped after the schedule change, from 33.5 to 37.5. However, it’s still the lowest total on the slate, and I expect to have minimal amounts of both Allen and Mason Rudolph in my multi-entry build.
The game – and quarterbacks – that I’m most interested in are in the LAR/DET game, taking place at Ford Field, with the game carrying the highest total on the slate (51.5) and a close 3-point spread. I referenced it above, but the storyline is that Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff are facing their old teams after being traded for each other three years ago. While the narrative is compelling, my real interest here is in a Lions offense that ranked 2nd in the league in passing yards per game and a Rams offense that ranked 10th in that same category. While the defenses weren’t pushovers, the Lions allowed the 6th-most passing yards per game, while the Rams allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game. My slight preference is with Goff, the home favorite who is slightly cheaper than Stafford on DraftKings ($6,200 for Goff compared to $6,500 for Stafford) and just slightly more expensive than Stafford on FanDuel ($7,700 for Goff compared to $7,400 for Stafford).
Goff and Stafford will likely be my two highest-owned QBs, and as always on a smaller slate, after I select the QB for my roster, the rest of my lineup will depend heavily on the QB that I select. To capture the upside from a game blowing past its total, I’ll make sure to pair my QB with 4 or 5 RB/WR/TEs from the same game, and I’ll also likely pair my QB with at least 2 of his own pass catchers.
A quick note on FanDuel, where we also have Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield added to the mix. Hurts is the most expensive QB on the slate (tied with Allen at $9,000), and even with his rushing ability, I’ll have a hard time getting to him with his top wide receiver, A.J. Brown, ruled out. Baker Mayfield is cheaper at $7,200 but lacks rushing upside and is an underdog at home. I’ll include both in my multi-entry builds but will likely roster them at a rate slightly under the QBs from the GB/DAL game.
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