Hittin' The Nuts - Squirrelpatrol's Top Stacks: Week 13
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS stacks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 90+ Live Final seats, taking 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the Milly Maker on the Week 2 MNF 2-game slate. Should we roster the chalk stack? How off-the-board should we get in large-field tournaments? Squirrelpatrol answers all of these questions and more below!
As DFS strategies get more advanced, moving from hunch-based decision-making to play-by-play simulations meant to measure how often certain players or stacks appear in the optimal lineup, it’s important to pair both quantitative and qualitative analysis when putting together our NFL DFS lineups. Each week, I’ll be taking a look at our Optimal Stack Tool for both FanDuel and DraftKings and giving some thoughts on what the best NFL DFS stacks will be for different contest types and sizes.
NFL DFS Top Stacks for Week 13
DraftKings Chalk Stack – Russell Wilson at Houston Texans
For the second week in a row (and the second time all season), we have a large enough difference in projected ownership between FanDuel and DraftKings at the QB position that I’m splitting up my “chalk stack” section to be site specific. Russell Wilson has the highest projected ownership on DraftKings at 16.7%, with a 15.0% optimal rate that gives him negative leverage for the slate. Wilson and the Broncos are 2.5-point road underdogs in Houston this Sunday in a game with a 47.5 total. This is the fourth week in a row that the QB facing the Texans is our highest projected owned QB with Russell Wilson following in the footsteps of Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence.
The two biggest factors driving Wilson’s ownership this week are his price and the matchup against the Texans pass defense. Wilson is too cheap as the 10th-most expensive QB on DraftKings at just $5,700, and he projects as one of the top point-per-dollar QBs on the slate. The Houston pass defense has allowed the 6th-most passing yards per game, part of the reason the QBs facing the Texans have shown up as popular plays throughout the season.
Even though the price and matchup are appealing, I’ll likely be under the projected ownership on Wilson this Sunday, which the Optimal Stacks Tool indicates is the right call compared to the simulated possible outcomes on this slate. Wilson has put up just two games over 20 DK points this season, and both of those came in the first four weeks of the season. Denver has found team success recently winning five games in a row, but Wilson has put up over 200 passing yards in just one of those games. If I’m stacking Wilson on Sunday I’ll likely pair him with at least one of his top two receivers, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, and I’ll likely use an opposing receiver from the Texans as well.
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