Hittin' The Nuts - Squirrelpatrol's Top Stacks: Week 18 (Main Slate)
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS stacks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 90+ Live Final seats, taking 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the Milly Maker on the Week 2 MNF 2-game slate. Should we roster the chalk stack? How off-the-board should we get in large-field tournaments? Squirrelpatrol answers all of these questions and more below!
As DFS strategies get more advanced, moving from hunch-based decision-making to play-by-play simulations meant to measure how often certain players or stacks appear in the optimal lineup, it’s important to pair both quantitative and qualitative analysis when putting together our NFL DFS lineups. Each week, I’ll be taking a look at our Optimal Stack Tool for both FanDuel and DraftKings and give some thoughts on what the best NFL DFS stacks will be for different contest types and sizes.
NFL DFS Top Stacks for Week 18 – Main Slate
Chalk Stack – Dak Prescott at Washington Commanders
Dak Prescott has the highest projected ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week, with a 18.3% projected ownership on FanDuel (17.2% optimal rate) and 15.5% projected ownership on DraftKings (15.7% optimal rate) according to the Optimal Stacks Tool. There is always more uncertainty heading into the final week of the NFL regular season than any other week, but it’s easy to see why the Optimal Stacks Tool has Dak as the QB with the highest chances of being optimal this week. As I wrote in the Expert Survey:
There is a lot of uncertainty (and a lot of options) on this slate, but we might be overthinking things if we avoid the Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb connection. Dallas has the highest implied point total on the week and is facing a Commanders defense that has given up the most yards per game, points per game, and receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Dallas needs this win for the playoff implications. I expect them to keep the foot on the gas, and I don’t expect the Commanders to have the personnel to stop Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
As that comment and my LineupHQ tag indicates, I expect to roster Dak more than any other QB this Sunday, and I expect to pair him with CeeDee Lamb quite often. With Dallas needing this win for playoff seeding, I won’t stop with just a CeeDee Lamb pairing, however, and I won’t hesitate to add other Cowboys to my lineups, including Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson. I don’t see the necessity for a run back from the Washington side of the game with the team carrying just a 16.5 point implied point total, but if I were to use one, it would most likely be Terry McLaurin – the Washington player most capable of scoring a quick touchdown that would encourage more passing from the Dallas side of the game. Just one word of caution on Dak: While he’s my favorite (and the Optimal Stacks Tool’s favorite) QB this week, for multi-entry, I don’t plan to lock button Dak or go way over the projected ownership. There are 26 QBs starting (actually 28 QBs starting on FanDuel) in this unpredictable Week 18, and each one of them has some chance of landing on the winning lineup.
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