Hittin' The Nuts - Squirrelpatrol's Top Stacks: Week 2
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS stacks than Squirrelpatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, Squirrelpatrol has accumulated 90+ Live Final seats, most recently taking 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize. Should we roster the chalk stack? How off-the-board should we get in large-field tournaments? Squirrelpatrol answers all of these questions and more below!
As DFS strategies get more advanced, moving from hunch-based decision-making to play-by-play simulations meant to measure how often certain players or stacks appear in the optimal lineup, it’s important to pair both quantitative and qualitative analysis when putting together our NFL DFS lineups. Each week, I’ll be taking a look at our Optimal Stack Tool for both FanDuel and DraftKings and giving some thoughts on what the best NFL DFS stacks will be for different contest types and sizes.
NFL DFS Top Stacks for Week 2
Chalk Stack – Josh Allen vs. Las Vegas
The highest-owned QB on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week according to our projections will be Josh Allen facing the Raiders at home in Buffalo. More often than not, the results of simulations show that the highest-owned players in any DFS contest tend to be over-owned. And after tagging Allen and some of his Bills teammates in LineupHQ and writing them up in the Expert Survey, I sat down to write this article already making notes on how I would argue with our Top Stacks Tool on why I planned to be overweight Allen despite the simulation showing that he’s over-owned by the field.
Surprise! This week, the Top Stacks Tool is showing Josh Allen to be under-owned despite being projected as the highest-owned QB on the slate, and the positive leverage (4.40% on FD and 7.5% on DK) is the most of any QB on the week and the some of the highest numbers I’ve seen from our tools. It makes sense – the Bills have the highest implied point total on the week and they are playing at home against a statistically weak Raiders pass defense that allowed the 4th-most passing yards in the league last season. The Bills lost their season opener against the Jets in a primetime game in brutal fashion (punt return for a TD in OT), and I can only (jokingly) assume the Top Stacks Tool is calculating the possibility of angry Josh Allen coming out to make a statement against the Raiders.
When using Allen in a stack this week, I like the idea of making it a full game stack, pairing multiple receivers and/or running backs from this game. Stefon Diggs is a natural choice on the Bills, but I don’t mind the idea of using Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, or Dalton Kincaid in place of (or even in addition to) Diggs. The Raiders have a notoriously concentrated offense, and with Jakobi Meyers set to miss this game, running it back with Davante Adams or Josh Jacobs makes sense if this game shoots out over its total.
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