Week 12 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
Turkey Day leaves us with just 10 games on the main slate for Sunday. Unlike the past several weeks, however, we do have a few of the elite quarterbacks once again populating the player pool. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen are back in our lives, while phenom C.J. Stroud ($7,700) is now priced among the rest of the league’s MVP candidates at the position.
In general, the games look like they should be tight in Week 12. The Chiefs-Raiders clash (KC -9.5) is the only game on the board with a point spread greater than 4 points, so here’s hoping we get a bunch of competitive games. 4 of the games have over/unders of at least 44.5 points, as well.
Here’s an overview of the QB position on DraftKings heading into Week 12.
Week 12 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($8,300) – 23.2 projected FPTs
The Eagles went into KC and came away with a come-from-behind victory last Monday night. On Sunday, they’ll return home to host another would-be AFC contender with the Bills in town. Buffalo hasn’t played particularly inspired football of late, yet the Birds are only 3-point home favorites in the game with the highest total of the weekend (48.5).
Jalen Hurts was held without a passing touchdown for the first time all season by the Chiefs, but he did supply a pair of rushing scores in the victory. He’s now up to 9 rushing TDs on the season, which puts him narrowly ahead of his counterpart on Sunday, Josh Allen (7). Buffalo’s defense is right in the middle of the pack so far this season in DVOA (15th), yet the high-octane Philly offense still has the second-highest implied team total of the afternoon (25.75).
As usual, the Philly stack won’t come cheap. Rostering Hurts without one of his expensive stacking partners is always viable in tournaments given the rushing upside, but getting up to A.J. Brown is the preferred path. He’s the top-projected WR of the week with Tyreek Hill off the slate, and something tells me Brown is due for a huge afternoon after his clunker on Monday night.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200) – 22.08 projected FPTs
As mentioned, the Chiefs are in the best spot of any team this week on the road in Las Vegas. The offense will get the natural boost going into the cushy dome conditions, and the on-paper matchup is a good one. The Raiders’ defense isn’t quite as porous through the air as it was last season, but they’re still 16th in total DVOA.
The Chiefs’ offense has admittedly sputtered over the past few weeks, but this is a favorable bounce-back spot. Kansas City still boasts the 7th-best pass play percentage in the sport, and it’s hard to imagine Mahomes’ struggles continuing for much longer. He hasn’t topped 300 yards passing in any of his last 3 games, while he’s topped 3 passing touchdowns in a game just twice all year. This will be the first matchup of the season between the longtime AFC rivals.
KC is the only team on the slate with a total higher than that of the Eagles at 26.5, and the aforementioned spread indicates the Raiders’ offense may have a hard time keeping up. Travis Kelce ($8,200) and his 27% target share is always the most appealing stacking partner for Mahomes, though we aren’t getting much of a discount there yet.
Rashee Rice (14.8% targets) has emerged as Mahomes’ No. 2 option in the passing attack. Rice’s price range is laden with receivers that project better from a median standpoint, so you’re likely to get low ownership if you do roll the dice.
C.J. Stroud ($7,700) – 20.07 projected FPTs
C.J. Stroud engineered another Texans victory last week against Arizona, though the offense did come to a screeching halt after a hot first-half start. This week, the Texans will host a rather important game against a Jaguars team currently leading Houston by a game in the standings. Vegas isn’t fully on the bandwagon just yet, as Houston is a slight 1.5-point home ‘dog.
The Texans still have a solid 23-point total, and this is another dome game. Home/road splits should generally be taken with a massive grain of salt, but 13 of Stroud’s 17 TD passes so far this season have come on home turf. The matchup isn’t a breezy one, however, as the Jags rank inside the top 10 in all of pDVOA, rDVOA, and tDVOA so far this year.
What the difficult matchup and Stroud’s suddenly premium salaries should do is lower his ownership in tournaments a bit. He was rather chalky last week, but he’s currently projected to come in around 5% in large-field DK stuff this Sunday. The Texans stack is also getting pricey, as Tank Dell ($6,900), Nico Collins ($6,400), and Dalton Schultz ($5,400) have each seen their salaries rise considerably as the season has progressed.
I have no qualms with building Texans stacks around Stroud in larger-field stuff, but I don’t think he’ll quite make the cut for me in single-entry.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 12
Baker Mayfield ($5,500) – 16.41 projected FPTs
Hey look, another dome game! The Bucs will get a “park upgrade” this week going into Indianapolis to take on the Colts. Indy has been much more exploitable against the run (24th in DVOA) than they have been through the air (11th), but the Tampa Bay passing attack is almost always on my radar in tournaments.
You get the cheap QB in Baker Mayfield ($5,500) around whom to build your stacks, which comes in handy when you’re paying a little extra to get to Mike Evans ($7,400) and Chris Godwin ($6,300). The offense has endured some occasional struggles, but this is easily the best group of pass-catchers with whom Baker has ever played. As a result, he’s put up more-than-respectable numbers in his first year with the team. Mayfield has 15 touchdown passes to just 6 interceptions, which is noteworthy for a guy who routinely ranked among the league leaders in INTs during his days in Cleveland.
Indoor/outdoor splits do matter. Mayfield’s completion percentage in outdoor games so far this season is hovering around 62.5%, while he’s thrown 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. In indoor settings, however, he’s completed nearly 70% of his attempts with 9 TDs to just a single pick.
If you’re looking for a salary saver with legitimate upside at QB, Baker is among the best options available. The other QB in this game, Gardner Minshew, projects to be quite a bit more popular at a $400 discount from Mayfield.
Derek Carr ($5,800)
Derek Carr isn’t in the projections as of this writing, but there’s a chance he returns on Sunday when the Saints visit the Falcons. He’s on the verge of clearing the concussion protocol, but he hasn’t quite gotten there yet despite turning in a full practice on Wednesday. Carr’s return would send Jameis Winston back to the bench after he came on in relief of Carr in Minnesota a couple of weeks ago.
Carr’s $5,800 salary is cheap enough to put him in play against a Falcons defense that ranks just 30th in DVOA against the pass on the season. His overall numbers this season leave an awful lot to be desired, as he’s thrown just 10 touchdown passes across his first 10 starts. This will be the Saints’ first look at this porous Atlanta defense, however.
Even with Michael Thomas on IR, Carr should be able to get something going with weapons like Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara running routes. The Carr-to-Kamara connection has been strong this season, but he has struggled to get things going with Olave. What MT’s absence does open up is a potential value, however, in Rashid Shaheed ($4,300).
I don’t blame you one iota if you have no interest in going back to the well with a guy who’s been underperforming all year. If Carr suits up, however, I don’t mind firing a dart here in a GPP.