Week 8 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
After a shorter 10-week schedule in Week 7, we’re back to 13 games for Sunday’s main docket in Week 8. We once again have a couple of games that could be affected by wind and rain, while 3 more games will take place in domes. We don’t have any massive over/unders this week, though 6 games on the main slate have totals of at least 44 points.
As usual, there are countless different ways to go at quarterback. As we know, your lineup’s QB is typically going to be the primary building block in any stack. The most expensive players of the position are topping the projections, but there are some viable cheaper alternatives, as well.
Here’s how the QB position is shaping up ahead of the Week 8 main slate on DraftKings.
Week 8 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) – 23.93 projected FPTs
Chiefs stacks wound up winning all of the money last week. Travis Kelce was the headliner, but he obviously doesn’t put up massive numbers without the help of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes racked up 321 yards and 3 touchdown passes by halftime en route to finishing with 424 yards and 4 scores for the game.
This week, the reigning champs will hit the road for another divisional clash. This time, they’ll face a Broncos defense that comes into Week 8 ranked near the bottom of the NFL in most statistical categories. Denver is dead-last in both total DVOA and pass DVOA, while they’re all the way up to 31st in DVOA against the run. Impressive! In related news, the Chiefs’ 27-point implied team total is the third-highest on the slate, and they’re favored by a little more than a touchdown on the road.
Mahomes is the priciest QB on the DK main slate, but justifiably so. We can’t necessarily expect him to put up a full game’s worth of fantasy points in one half as he did a week ago, but he’s pretty clearly the most likely player to finish as the top scorer at his position this week. Interestingly enough, Mahomes is also projecting for only about 5.7% ownership in large-field tournaments, as of this writing on Thursday.
You don’t really need me to tell you why paying up for Mahomes is appealing, especially if he’s going to be the seventh-most-popular quarterback on the slate.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700) – 20.93 projected FPTs
The reason the Chiefs don’t have the highest implied team total on the slate is that the Dolphins do. Miami will play a divisional foe of their own when they welcome the Patriots to South Beach on Sunday afternoon. Miami has a 28.25 total, and they’re the biggest favorites of Week 8 (-9.5).
We’re getting Tua at a useful $700 discount from Mahomes, which comes in handy with such expensive weapons in Tyreek Hill ($9,500) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,500). It’s worth noting that Hill missed practice on Wednesday with a hip injury, though he was seen participating in Thursday’s session. If he sits, that puts a clear damper on the potential explosiveness of Miami’s offense. On the flip side, Hill missing out would also make the Dolphins much easier to stack from a salary standpoint.
Waddle would become a pretty chalky mid-tier wide receiver, while Braxton Berrios ($3,000) and Cedrick Wilson ($3,000) would likely play bigger roles. If you’re feeling frisky, perhaps the $2,800 Durham Smythe tickles your fancy, too.
New England’s defense has endured some rough games this season, but they’re not as porous as Denver overall. The Pats are 17th in total DVOA, and we just saw them stifle another explosive offense in Buffalo just last week. They are more exploitable through the air, however. The Patriots rank 23rd in pDVOA, so Tagovailoa and friends should be able to do some damage in this one. I wouldn’t put too much stock into this offense’s struggles against New England back in Week 2, especially considering they’ll be at home for the rematch this weekend.
Dak Prescott ($6,100) – 18.31 projected FPTs
This hasn’t been the smoothest season for Dak Prescott or the Cowboys’ offense thus far. The defense has been the hallmark of this team to this point, though Dak is fresh off of his finest showing of the year. Last Monday night in LA, Prescott threw for 272 yards and accounted for 2 total touchdowns in Dallas’ win over the Chargers.
This week, they’ll return home to face the other LA-based NFL outfit. Let’s just say the Rams’ defense has fallen quite far since their Super Bowl run a couple of years ago. Los Angeles comes into this one ranked just 20th in tDVOA. They’re 20th against the pass and 24th against the run. The Cowboys are solid 6.5-point home favorites over their longtime NFC rivals in this one.
The matchup is excellent, and Prescott comes at a considerable discount from some of the week’s other top QB options. As of now, Dak is projected to accrue the most ownership (7.6%) of any of the cheaper plays at the position.
Prescott’s affordable salary makes it easy to pair him with CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), while I don’t hate the idea of cramming Tony Pollard ($7,500) into Cowboys stacks, either. This team’s 26-point implied team total is among the highest on the slate, so it’s easy to see where the pOWN is coming from.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 8
Sam Darnold ($4,300) – 14.99 projected FPTs
Brock Purdy may miss the 49ers’ game at home against the Bengals on Sunday afternoon with a concussion. If he does, it’s Sam Darnold time for San Francisco this week.
We haven’t seen Darnold take a snap for the Niners in a regular-season game, but the tournament appeal is obvious. Darnold was the No. 3 overall pick in the draft just a few years ago, and the weapons with which he’ll be working in this offense are substantially better than those with which he was supplied in New York and Carolina.
It would make sense for Kyle Shananan to take a run-heavy approach here, of course. They have Christian McCaffrey, while Cincinnati is a dismal 27th in DVOA vs. the run this season. Expect a heavy dosage of him here, and with good reason.
That said, Darnold is only $4,300. Deebo Samuel is also out. Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000) and George Kittle ($5,400) are clear-cut top options at their respective positions, and it won’t cost you an arm and a leg to stack a team with a healthy 23.5 implied total. Jauan Jennings ($3,800) grades out as one of the better values at wide receiver, too.
Playing Sam Darnold on a 13-game slate isn’t necessarily the path of least resistance, but he’s also projecting for just 1.69% ownership on DraftKings. You can stack the 49ers and still have enough cash left over to pay up for the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, which is an awfully appealing way to stack this one.
Matthew Stafford ($6,600) – 16.36 projected FPTs
The Rams were a popular stack last week at home against the Steelers, but they seem to be flying under the radar this week. As mentioned, they’ll be on the road to face that vaunted Cowboys defense that comes into the game ranked third in both tDVOA and pDVOA.
Matchup be damned, this is still a high-powered offense taking the field in a dome, which should be one of the better offensive environments on the slate. The masses are apparently going to be flocking to Prescott, but taking a stab at a lower-owned Stafford on the other side of the game makes lots of sense.
The Rams are ‘dogs here, so they figure to have a pass-heavy game script, assuming they fall behind early. With LA, we know exactly where the targets are going. It was Puka Nacua hogging most of the looks from Stafford last week, but I feel pretty comfortable in expecting a bounce back from Cooper Kupp.
Paying up for all 3 requires some sacrifices, so I’d trust the long-term numbers and side with Kupp if I’m only stacking one of these guys with Stafford. The Rams should be contrarian enough to make them stackable in GPPs with some of the week’s chalkier pieces, including Breece Hall and Trey McBride.