NFL DFS QB Report: Reviewing Week 6
NFL Quarterbacks rely on efficiency to make their mark in daily fantasy sports. Stats like per attempt efficiency, volume metrics, air yards, deep attempts, and rushing yards can truly point us towards some of the best options on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. In this article, we’ll dive into the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to locate a few key QB trends from last week. The insights will help us understand how QB performances of the past could impact our future projections and projected ownership.
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Today’s NFL DFS QB Efficiency, Volume, and Air Yards Report
Lamar Jackson
NFL Team: Baltimore Ravens
Pass Attempts: 30 in Week 6
Air Yards: 182 in Week 6
Air Conversion (PACR): 1.02 in Week 6
Rushing Yards: 108 in Week 6
It is the rushing stats that I want to bring to light here with Lamar, as the two rushing attempts for just three yards in the Week 5 game against the Bengals freaked everybody out in the DFS community leading up to the Week 6 game against Philly.
And what did he end up doing? Oh, just nine rushes for 108 yards and a TD (to go along with 186 passing yards and another TD). While other QB’s that were cheaper ended up scoring more fantasy points than Lamar, it is still worth noting that he was only 9.1% owned in the FanDuel Sunday Million. And with the Ravens heading into a Week 7 bye, that is just another week for people to forget about what he just did from a fantasy perspective.
The moral of the story? That Cincinnati game looked like a blip on the radar. There is no need for us to worry about Lamar’s rushing, especially when he is coming out of a bye week.
Justin Herbert
NFL Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Pass Attempts: 37 in Week 5
Air Yards: 384 in Week 5
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.69 in Week 5
I am cheating a little bit here by looking back to Week 5, but Herbert’s fantasy performance against New Orleans deserves to be revisited.
20/34, 264 yards, 4 TD
And you can make the argument that he might have left a little on the table too. What might go overlooked unless you dig a little deeper is that he had a massive 384 air yards that game. One might ask: is that good?? Well, consider that the league leader in air yards per game at the quarterback position is Matt Ryan with 365.3. So yeah, I’d say 384 is a lot of air yards.
Since the conversion rate on those air yards was low (0.69, as you can see above), that is why I think he might have left a little on the table despite still having a monster fantasy game. Next up for Herbert though? A Jaguars defense that was dead last in pass defense DVOA heading into Week 6.
Matthew Stafford
NFL Team: Detroit Lions
Pass Attempts: 31 in Week 6
Air Yards: 269 in Week 6
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.83 in Week 6
Stafford is coming off of a great matchup against the aforementioned Jaguars defense and heads into Week 7 in probably an even better one against Atlanta.
The thing is though, Stafford was a bit of a letdown in Week 6 from a fantasy perspective. With the Lions holding a decent lead for much of the game, I think the Lions tried to milk that clock a little bit. That is partly to blame for why Stafford saw season-lows in dropbacks (32), pass attempts (31), and touchdowns (1).
This upcoming matchup against Atlanta seems like the prime bounceback spot for Stafford though. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (29.1), and it’s not like it’s a close competition either. The team that has given up the second most is the Seattle Seahawks all the way down at 24.3 per game.
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Image Credit: Imagn