NFL DFS Role Change Report: Reviewing Week 8
The snap counts, targets, air yards, and usage statistics we see for NFL players has a significant impact on our decisions for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. NFL DFS is a game where opportunity is king, and it is important for us to know if the situation has changed for any of the players. Each week in NFL DFS will show us a few players who have changes in their snap percentage and other key stats. In this article, we will look back how these stats could impact future NFL projections and projected ownership.
Let’s use the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to rewind and take stock of how usage for a few players changed this week in NFL DFS.
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Today’s NFL DFS Snaps, Targets, and Air Yards Change Report
Corey Davis
NFL Team: Tennessee Titans
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 79% in Week 8
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 10 targets each of the past two games
Davis commanded just a 19.5% market share of the targets in Weeks 1-3. Then, COVID-19 forced the bye week on the Titans for Week 4. And Davis was one of the Titans who caught the virus, which also caused him to miss Week 5 and Week 6.
However, Davis has been Tannehill’s preferred target ever since he got back on the field. Over these past two games, Davis has led the team with a 33.3% market share of targets. He has turned those 20 total targets into 14 receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns.
Davis and the Titans have their work cut out for them in Week 9 though. Not only did the Bears rank third in Pass Defense DVOA heading into the Saints game, but they have allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers to date.
Mecole Hardman
NFL Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 68% in Week 8
Key Passing Game Usage Stat: 19.1% market share of targets in Week 8
From the outside looking in, it at least appeared that the Chiefs made a conscious effort to Hardman involved in Week 8 against the Jets.
It is easy to just look at the final score and assume it was the result of garbage time, but this was a 12-point game with just a few minutes left in the third quarter. On the very first drive of the game, Hardman saw two targets, one of which that was more of the jet sweep variety and resulted in a 30 yard touchdown “reception”.
Ultimately, this was the most Hardman saw the field and was used since Sammy Watkins went down. Here are the numbers from the last three weeks.
Snap percentage: 40% > 43% > 68%
Market share of targets: 3.8% > 8.3% > 19.1%
The final box score from Sunday’s game against the Jets was seven receptions (on nine targets) for 96 yards and that early score. Whether that type of volume remains going forward though is certainly a mystery, even if Watkins remains out for the upcoming Week 9 game against the Panthers. Regardless, Hardman will always be in play for tournaments with his kind of upside as a part of this crazy talented Chiefs offense.
Jonathan Taylor
NFL Team: Indianapolis Colts
Position: RB
Snap Percentage: 34% in Week 8
Key Running Game Usage Stat:27.5% market share of rushes in Week 8
Taylor was wildly inefficient on Sunday against a Lions defense that had given up the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs heading into the matchup. On his 11 carries, Taylor was only able to muster 22 yards.
One has to think that is why he saw season lows in snap percentage (34%) and market share of the team’s rushes (27.5%) in yesterday’s game. For comparison, the lowest market share of rushes he had in any game prior to yesterday was 41.9%.
Jordan Wilkins was clearly the more effective back, going for 89 yards and a touchdown on his whopping 20 carries. He added in a catch for another 24 yards as well.
This backfield figures to be a bit of a headache from a fantasy perspective going forward, and the matchup against the Ravens in Week 9 certainly isn’t going to help. Through eight weeks, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than this Baltimore defense.
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Image Credit: Imagn