NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 13
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as influential in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present enhanced probability of fantasy point production.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests. Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
Week 13 NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Dalvin Cook
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Rush DVOA (Rank): 26th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 20th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 4th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 5th
This matchup against Jacksonville certainly bodes well for a bounce-back spot for Cook after he had a floor game in Week 12. Not only do the Jaguars rank 26th in Rush Defense DVOA, but they have also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
The Jaguars faced the Browns in Week 12, and they let Nick Chubb run all over them. His final line was 19 rushes for 144 yards and one touchdown. Kareem Hunt got in on the action too for 10 rushes and 62 yards. The Jaguars even gave up 23 rushes for 107 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 to the pass-happy Steelers. All in all, this defense has allowed the fourth most rushing yards in the entire league.
The projected game-script on Sunday is ripe for Cook to go back to seeing massive workload. The Vikings are -9.5 and have (what I am guessing is) their highest implied team total of the season at 30.75. It is worth keeping an eye on Cook’s status as the week progresses. He injured his ankle in that game on Sunday but ended up returning later anyways. He was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice.
James Robinson
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Rush DVOA (Rank): 16th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 6th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 14th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 16th
On the other side of this game, I see some things under the hood in this matchup that has me quite interested in Robinson this weekend too.
Some of the normal things we default to when looking at matchups, like DVOA and ‘fantasy points against’, make it appear as if this matchup is nothing better than neutral. And that very well may be the case. But when I look at some of these advanced analytics in GridironIQ for this matchup, there are definitely some things that pop.
For one, the Vikings defense has allowed the second highest Rush Success Rate in the league (55.82%). On top of that, they have allowed the sixth highest EPA (Expected Points Added) against opponent’s rushing plays. Why exactly that hasn’t translated to more fantasy points for opposing running backs across the season as a whole, I do not know exactly. I venture to guess it is because this defense has allowed 23 passing touchdowns but just six rushing touchdowns. Is that variance? Or is that their scheme? ShoulderShrugEmoji
But even if you are unsure where this matchup falls in the grand scheme of things, you can feel good falling back on Robinson’s absurdly high volume. Since their Week 8 bye, he has logged 81% of the snaps (a whopping 97% snap rate last week though), 97% of the market share of rushes, and a respectable 10.8% of the market share of targets.
DFS players are often slightly hesitant to click his name because he plays for the Jaguars (I know I am!), but you can’t argue with the volume. And if the matchup is perhaps slightly better than some might think, we could be looking at a repeat performance of his Week 12 against Cleveland (29.9 DraftKings points).
Nick Chubb
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Rush DVOA (Rank): 17th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 10th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 17th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 6th
A lot of the metrics for this Titans defense suggests the matchup is more neutral than anything. But when it comes down to it, they have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. And well, that has to mean something after 12 weeks, ya know?
Chubb is also coming off of his best game since he returned from injury. Against Jacksonville last week, he rushed the ball 19 times for 144 yards and one touchdown. He also made solid contributions in the passing game, catching all three of his targets for 32 yards. For comparison, he hasn’t seen more than one target in any game all season.
And perhaps most encouraging is the fact that he played on 61% of snaps, which was his second most of the season behind the 62% back in Week 2. That has continued the trend of increased snaps since he returned from injury (43% in Week 10; 45% in Week 11). Combined with that great performance against the Jaguars, does that mean he could be looking at a season high in snaps this week against Tennessee? Maybe he could actually get above 70% for once??
That remains to be seen, but it would certainly go a long way to helping pay off these price tags. Chubb is now up to $8,700 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings. Perhaps that is a huge part of the reason why an early run of Projected Ownership has him below 10% on DraftKings.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA