NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 6
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as influential in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present enhanced probability of fantasy point production. In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests.
Week 6 is an interesting slate at the running back position as the two most expensive options (Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook) are likely out of action. On top of that, Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara are not on the main slate. So while you can still find expensive options at this position if you so choose, the mid tier is really standing out to me as a place to get a lot of exposure at running back.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA
Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
Today’s NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Alexander Mattison
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Rush DVOA (Rank): 10th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 20th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 16th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 6th
With Dalvin Cook being doubtful for Week 6 (groin injury), Alexander Mattison Week is officially upon us. After Cook went down last game against the Seahawks, Mattison racked up 20 rush attempts, three targets (catching them all), and 136 total yards. The end result was 15.1 FD / 19.6 DK points despite not even finding the end zone.
Mattison and the Vikings get an even better matchup this week against Atlanta. While at first glance that doesn’t seem to be the case since the Falcons rank 10th in Rush DVOA, you can also see from above that they give up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. A large part of that is because they still give up loads of receptions to the position, as they are tied with the Panthers for having allowed the most receptions to opposing running backs (43) in the entire league.
David Montgomery
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Rush DVOA (Rank): 29th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 12th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 7th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 1st
Considering the Panthers were mentioned in the blurb above as being tied with the Falcons for allowing the most receptions to opposing running backs in the entire league, it probably isn’t too surprising to see the running back facing them in Week 6 getting a mention here.
Montgomery is not normally a guy we associate with being a good pass-catching back. For example, he amassed a total of just 35 targets in his 16 games in 2019. 2020 though has been a different story, especially of late. Through five games this season, he has already racked up 23 targets, with a shocking 14 of those coming in the last two weeks.
The injury to Tarik Cohen has given Montgomery a stranglehold on the Bears backfield. This new passing game involvement—not to mention the elite matchup against Carolina—has led to an underpriced David Montgomery across the industry.
James Robinson
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Rush DVOA (Rank): 31st
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 1st
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 6th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 3rd
The Detroit Lions are another defense who has been, shall we say, generous, in the amount of fantasy points they let opposing running backs rack up against them. They find themselves right in between the aforementioned Panthers and Falcons, allowing the third most fantasy points in the league to this position.
We currently have Robinson projected for 69% of the market share of rushes and 12% of the market share of targets for this Jaguars offense. That type of volume in such an elite matchup for running backs has me really liking his floor/ceiling combination at a nice mid tier price tag. Even better, he probably comes in with lower ownership than the two guys mentioned above as well.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA