Utilizing NFL DFS Sims for Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
NFL DFS Sims has arrived in the form of SimLabs. You can learn more about how to utilize SimLabs by reading our DFS Sims FAQ.
Where an optimizer generates lineups via user customization and the user grades the lineups, SimLabs simulates the field and rates the lineups for the user.
Every week, we’ll take a late look at the SimLabs output and briefly discuss any takeaways. For Week 13, we’ll discuss a little about Zack Moss megchalk, going overweight on the Broncos on DK, and the sims being really aggressive in its Christian McCaffrey exposure.
For this SimLabs run, I used all of the default advanced settings, generating large-field lineups with a low results range.
Click here to create advanced DFS lineups with the power of SimLabs for NFL Week 13!
Zack Moss Near Lock
SimLabs has us comfortably way overweight on Moss: 78.00% on DraftKings and 93.33% on FanDuel. At this point, the decision is whether to include him in all lineups, exclude him from all lineups, or click the minus button to underexpose ourselves.
I’m on Team Lock Him In.
If Moss were more expensive, if Moss were in a timeshare spot, if Moss were an underdog, if he wasn’t projected to be a top-ten back in raw median points, sure we could reasonably scale back for leverage. But he’s cheap as hell on both sites, the bellcow for the week, a slight favorite, and projected to be a top-three back on both sites, so I’m just gonna go over on the sims and lock him in.
This Broncos Thing on DK
The Broncos suck, but the field is gonna play them because they’re cheap. I was hoping that the simulation would take a stand and go even or underweight, but (lol me) the sims are going overweight on the field by about 50%.
The Texans have been engaged in its fair share of shootouts, but they’re giving up 20.9 DK points per game to QBs (sixth-worst in the league). This game is has a relatively high 47.5 total and only a 3.0-point spread, so we could be talking about a shootout.
The Broncos are checking boxes — high affordability, great game environment, and the backing of SimLabs.
My struggle is still with how much the Broncos suck. Were Russell Wilson in the 10-to-12% ownership range, I could buy in to getting a little overweight, but the sims are telling me to play five of my 20 lineups as Broncos stacks, and — sorry — I’m not gonna do it. Not at this ownership. It just costs too many lineups to go overweight.
I don’t blame anyone for going with SimLabs here or going underweight, but I might fade. Lineups are resources, and I’m not sure I want anything invested past some Courtland Sutton run-backs.
I’d rather get aggressive on the 6.77% Sam Howell in an excellent scoring environment. Stacking him up with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, or Jahan Dotson with a Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle run-back could be the nuts. We get a ton of exposure to that game on both ends for a low price on the combo with a QB who could lead the week in pass attempts. A QB with five straight weeks of 20-plus DK points versus Wilson who has two games of 20-plus all season.
Howell has 300, 256, 312, 325, and 397 passing yards in those five games.
This CMC Thing on FD
McCaffrey has the highest median projection of all non-QBs, but he’s $9,800 on FanDuel. Because of correlation and sex appeal, Hill is eclipsing McCaffrey in ownership.
But the sims have our exposure doubling the field’s 19.4% ownership to have 42.67% of McCaffrey. This is a very aggressive stance, considering McCaffrey’s price tag and matchup.
But matchups don’t matter for McCaffrey, and he still might be underpriced for the expected volume.
After the Colts (because of Moss), the sims have a 49er in more of the 150-lineup set than any other team, and it isn’t close. The 49ers are in second in team exposure with 74.67% and third is the Eagles with 52.00%. Brock Purdy is the highest-exposed QB on FanDuel at 20.00% — over triple his 5.7% ownership.
On DraftKings, I like taking that Broncos exposure and spreading it around to better spots; but on FanDuel, I can buy into a lot of Niners. Especially McCaffrey, because Kyle Shanahan is gonna come with his A+ gameplan to beat an elite opponent. We have to believe that will revolve around running the football with McCaffrey and having a lot of dump-off contingency plans to beat the blitz.
It’s in the Syllabus
Visit our SimLabs Discord channel to read the discussions people are having about their experience and raise any questions. With that said, the SimLabs FAQ is extraordinarily fantastic. A lot of questions can be answered by the FAQ. Please consult it, but feel free to post your questions. Especially the one that you think might seem stupid. We’re all in this together.