NFL DFS Smash Plays: Week 11
Projections as you see on RotoGrinders are best view not as a static value, but as a range of outcomes. We look at the percentage of outcomes where a player reaches a GPP viable target score as their Smash Percentage, and love to target players with a high probability of returning that value. In this article, we’ll dive in to the RotoGrinders Smash Percentage, tool for Draftkings and FanDuel to find the best combination of projections and projected ownership to consider for this week’s daily fantasy football contests.
Today’s NFL DFS Smash Projections
Taysom Hill
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling Projection: 34.99
Smash Percentage: 37.99%
Projected Ownership: 21.5%
I’m not sure if you guys have heard this yet but…Taysom Hill is TE eligible on FanDuel! :insert Superflex joke here: We still don’t technically have verification from Sean Payton but rumors are that Hill will start at QB for the Saints on Sunday and Jameis Winston is expected to strictly operate as his backup. If this is true, Taysom is the lock of all locks on FD because of his $4,500 price tag and positional eligibility. Even if you think there’s a chance that Winston steals a few snaps from Taysom, he’s still nearly impossible to pass up on FanDuel. DraftKings, on the other hand, is a different story.
If you project Hill for a full QB workload, he’s going to look good from a point-per-dollar perspective for $4,800 on DK. My biggest concern with playing Hill on DK, however, is that he’s listed as QB (which he should be). Opportunity cost at the QB position is MUCH higher than the TE position. For example, Derek Carty’s projection system, The Blitz, has 13 QBs on the main slate projected for 19 DK points or better and just three TE’s projected to hit double-digits. In other words, if Winston takes any snaps under center you’re likely screwed on DraftKings while you can still easily survive on FanDuel.
Lamar Jackson
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Ceiling Projection: 35.87
Smash Percentage: 33.13%
Projected Ownership: 11.4%
Speaking about opportunity cost at the QB position, Lamar Jackson has the second-highest Smash Percentage of the main slate at 33.13%. Jackson has had a “down” year in comparison to his 2019 breakout season but has steadied of late as he’s using his legs more often. Since Baltimore’s Week 7 bye, Jackson is averaging over 13 carries per game and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks a long one. Sunday’s matchup for Jackson is a good one and the Ravens currently have the third-highest team total on the main slate at 27.25. Jackson is easily my preferred QB option on FanDuel and I think you should strongly consider playing him over the #1 Smash Play of the week on DraftKings, despite being significantly more expensive.
Mark Andrews
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Ceiling Projection: 21.1
Smash Percentage: 31.16%
Projected Ownership: 25.9%
Coming in with the third-highest Smash Percentage of the week, Mark Andrews highlights how little opportunity cost there is at the TE position. Currently projected to be the highest-scoring TE on the slate, Andrews ceiling projection is at just 21.1 DK points. While I do think that number is probably a tad low, it helps illustrate the fact that Taysom Hill flopping at the TE position is much less problematic to your Week 11 success than him flopping at the QB position. In regards to Andrews, he had his best yardage game of the season last week, hauling in 7-of-9 targets for 61-yards. Rightfully typically viewed as a touchdown-dependent TE option, Andrews has some legitimate yardage upside this week to go along with his strong touchdown equity. Andrews makes for an easy and obvious correlation pairing with Lamar Jackson on DraftKings. The Jackson to Andrews connection will be much lower-owned on FanDuel where you’ll either need to flex Andrews or play him over Hill.
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