NFL DFS Stud RB Spotlight: Week 10 Projections
Projections are live, and we’re looking ahead to Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer, we can identify some top quality stud running backs for the week with ease.
In this article, we’ll leverage the NFL projections we create for daily fantasy sports to discuss a few high priced backs we should target. We’ll also take a look at some high priced players who have some concerns. We’ll be able to hold these evaluations up against projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
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Week 10 NFL DFS Running Back Report
Aaron Jones
NFL Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 22.56
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 20.47
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 20.47
Our little DFS bubble was an entertaining place to be prior to the Packers game last Thursday against the 49ers. With Jones finally being listed as active for the first time since Week 6, there was alllllllll sorts of speculation and chatter about what kind of role he would have. Was he just available for emergency use only? Would they keep him on a very limited snap count? Should we expect normal usage since the Packers usually play it pretty safe with injuries to begin with?
We got our answer pretty quickly, as Jones touched the ball on the Packers first four plays, gaining chunk yardage on each. When it was all said and done, he played 61% of the snaps and touched the ball 20 times. And remember, he got those numbers with the Packers nursing a big lead most of the game. He played on the Packers first series of the fourth quarter and didn’t touch the ball again the rest of the game.
All of that to say: I think Jones is officially past the calf injury that cost him a few games.
Looking ahead to Week 10, he has the highest running back projection in LineupHQ on the entire slate and is in contention for highest projection at any FLEX position. In fact, that is the case on FanDuel, while he is slightly behind teammate Davante Adams on DraftKings.
Jones comes at a discount to some of these other studs though. Let’s look at DraftKings pricing as an example, where he is just $7,100. The running backs priced above him are far more expensive. Christian McCaffrey (if he even plays) is $9,000, while Alvin Kamara is $8,200. And if you expand it out to the FLEX position, Jones is just the eighth most expensive player on the slate.
Allow me to double-check something real quick…scrolling up….scrolllllling…yes, I did indeed say he is in contention for highest fantasy projection on the slate at the FLEX position! So when factoring in price, it is safe to say he should be a priority in Week 10.
Alvin Kamara
NFL Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 22.3
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 19.69
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 19.69
Kamara checks in slightly behind Jones in terms of raw fantasy points projection, and the two of them kind of form their own tier at the top. The dividing line between those two and the tier below them will be exacerbated even more if Christian McCaffrey misses their Week 10 matchup against the Bucs.
It is tough to get a good read on Kamara’s opportunity/usage from Week 9 due to the fact that the Saints absolutely demolished the Bucs. They led 31-0 at halftime, and Kamara’s last touch came at the 13:34 mark of the fourth quarter. With that being the first game back for Michael Thomas (since Week 1), we’d prefer all the information we can get to help make our decisions going forward.
The long and short of it is that I’m basically throwing that Week 9 game out the window because so many of the numbers underneath the hood are skewed due to the massive blowout. We know the Saints are going to try to get the ball to Kamara as much as possible, even if Thomas is now back in the picture.
Sure, you can probably tick down his volume and touchdown equity a bit going forward, but this is still clearly one of the top stud running backs in the league. And since he is more expensive than Aaron Jones (by a meaningful amount on DraftKings), you are probably going to get an ownership discount on him too.
Nick Chubb
NFL Team: Cleveland Browns
Opponent: Houston Texans
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 15.44
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 14.72
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 14.72
With Chubb being back at Browns practice this week, all signs are pointing to him making his return to action for the first time since Week 4. And while that is great news for Browns fans, it definitely muddies things up from a fantasy perspective.
The thing that jumps to the front of our minds when thinking about Chubb for Week 10 is probably this: how much is he going to play (and, I suppose, how he is going to look) in his first game back after such a long layoff? That immediately brings plenty of risk into the equation, as we are simply guessing on this unless a coach says specifically what he has in mind for a snap count leading up to the game. And you barely ever see a coach do that. And we probably wouldn’t even believe him if he did.
But if we look back to Weeks 1-3 (I am leaving out Week 4 since Chubb left that game early with the injury that caused him to miss so much time), Chubb was already essentially in a timeshare at running back. In those three games, he played 55% of the snaps, with Kareem Hunt playing 43% of the snaps. Chubb saw 31.4% of the market share of opportunity in those three games, with Hunt next on the team at 28.6%.
So the way I see it, unless they drastically limit his snaps in this first game back, things aren’t all that different from when we last saw him. And don’t forget, Odell Beckham was lost for the season while Chubb was out, so that bodes well for Chubb’s fantasy prospects going forward too.
With so much uncertainty here though, you might want to be an even more price-sensitive than usual. On FanDuel, the $8,200 price tag for Chubb seems rather hefty. I’d be more willing to take my shots on him over on DraftKings, where he is only $6,800.
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