NFL DFS Stud RB Spotlight: Week 13 Projections
Projections are live, and we’re looking ahead to Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using RotoGrinders’ LineupHQ Optimizer, we can identify some top quality stud running backs for the week with ease.
In this article, we’ll leverage the projections we create for daily fantasy sports to discuss a few high priced backs we should target. We’ll also take a look at some high priced players who have some concerns. We’ll be able to hold these evaluations up against projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
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Week 13 NFL DFS Running Back Report
Dalvin Cook
NFL Team: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 24.39
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 21.45
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 21.45
Things went about as poorly as possible for Cook in Week 12 against the Panthers. He had one of his least effective games of the season rushing the ball, only gaining 61 yards on his 18 carries. He never found the end zone. Even worse, he suffered an ankle injury, which was at least partly to blame for him only playing on 63% of the snaps.
And yet, the guy still finished with 11.2 DraftKings points. Of course that was nowhere near what we wanted in either cash games or tournaments when factoring in his price tag, but that just shows the kind of floor we are dealing with here. The guy has yet to have a game this season that didn’t result in double-digit DraftKings points.
There will be two kinds of DFS players in Week 13. There are those who won’t roster Cook because of that poor Week 12 performance. And then there are those who understand that bad games will happen, yet Cook is still underpriced for his role and matchup.
We have Cook with a hefty lead in projection amongst all running backs on the main slate, surpassing Derrick Henry by approximately three FanDuel points and four DraftKings points. The matchup against Jacksonville is one of the better ones on the board, so I won’t hesitate for a second to go right back to Cook this weekend.
Derrick Henry
NFL Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 20.26
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 18.24
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 18.24
Henry has seen his price tag skyrocket to a season-high mark after running all over, through, around, etc. the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12. How does 27 rushes for 178 yards and three touchdowns sound? It sounds like 37.5 FanDuel points and 41.5 DraftKings points; that’s how it sounds!
What I left out from his stat line were the four targets. And while he only caught two of them for seven yards, one of those aforementioned 27 rushes was actually a designed pass that ultimately went for a touchdown but was officially ruled a lateral. The one, single complaint that everyone has about Henry in fantasy football is that he isn’t involved in the passing game much (just 26 targets on the season), but it’s hard not to notice the added volume he saw in Week 12.
And you know what? Who really cares if it was just an aberration. Henry has proven time and time again that he is an outlier in this game we call fantasy football. He has one of the most unique combinations of strength, size, and speed that we have ever seen, and the Titans utilize him in a different way than we see most teams handle their running backs.
The argument is that he is so dependent on volume and touchdowns, that it makes him tough to roster at exorbitant price tags. Well whoop-de-do! Because he always gets a lot of volume and always seems to be scoring touchdowns!
Week 13 will be the ultimate test of recency bias versus projections. Cook is still projecting as the better play and isn’t that much more expensive. Henry is coming off of that monster game but is probably fully priced at this point. Which one of these guys are the majority of DFS players going to roster?
Alvin Kamara
NFL Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.17
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 15.87
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 15.87
While Brees might have invited Taysom over for Thanksgiving, I am guessing Alvin Kamara did no such thing. Taysom has resulted in such a dent to Kamara’s fantasy value, that the two might not even be on speaking terms outside of the huddle.
I am obviously being sarcastic here (I am sure all of the Saints players are nice guys who get along just fine), but the fantasy implications are real. While I wish I could point to the weirdness of that game against the Broncos (who basically didn’t have a quarterback due to COVID issues) being the culprit for Kamara’s weak fantasy line, it didn’t look much better the week before either. The stats from the past two weeks don’t look good, folks.
48% of snaps, 24 total rushes (31 for Latavius Murray), 3 total targets
That last number is by far the most troubling. Kamara was basically hovering around top 10 in the entire league in market share of his team’s targets with Brees behind center, but now his passing game involvement is bordering on irrelevant.
Being that the Falcons (his Week 13 opponent) give up the second fewest yards on the ground in the entire league, Kamara needs that passing game work to have a big impact. Considering the way things have gone the past two weeks with Taysom at quarterback, I can’t say I like his chances very much on Sunday.
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