NFL DFS Stud RB Spotlight: Week 9 Projections
Projections are live, and we’re looking ahead to Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer, we can identify some top quality stud running backs for the week with ease.
In this article, we’ll leverage the NFL projections we create for daily fantasy sports to discuss a few high priced backs we should target. We’ll also take a look at some high priced players who have some concerns. We’ll be able to hold these evaluations up against projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
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Week 9 NFL DFS Running Back Report
Dalvin Cook
NFL Team: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Detroit Lions
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 21.39
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 19.59
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 19.59
Cook missed essentially a game (Week 6) and a half (Week 5) with a groin injury. Then the Vikings had their bye in Week 7. To say that Cook returned in Week 8 with a vengeance would maybe be the understatement of the season. While the surface stats…
163 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD, 63 receiving yards, 1 TD reception
…are obviously eye-popping, it is some of the stuff under the hood regarding his usage that is the most promising. After missing that time with the groin injury, he returned to immediately play 88% of the snaps. What’s more is that he got an absurd 30 rushes (along with three targets and two receptions).
I’m guessing the fact that he had that much usage in the offense had a lot to do with the kind of game he was having. For example, his season high in snap rate before last week’s game was 80%, and the most rushes he got prior to Sunday was 27.
But this is why he is one of the few stud running backs remaining in the league. By and large, he is a three-down back who is involved in the passing game and gets the bulk of the red zone work.
Quite simply, he checks all of the boxes we are looking for in an elite running back. And when you factor in the appetizing matchup against Detroit, he is going to be worth paying up for in Week 9.
Derrick Henry
NFL Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Chicago Bears
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 18.53
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 17.69
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 17.69
Henry lags a few points behind Cook in our early run of projections and is also only a few hundred dollars cheaper than him. Throw in a far more difficult matchup against Chicago, and it is likely that Henry comes in with far lower ownership than Cook in Week 9.
If we know one thing about Henry though, it is that he is probably the most matchup-proof running back in the league. And no team is more committed to getting their guy the rock than the Titans are with Henry. Even though the Bears rank sixth in Defense DVOA, they are at least a bit more vulnerable to opposing teams’ running game (just 11th in Rush Defense DVOA).
The last thing I will note here is that Henry only played 53% of the snaps in Week 8. Assuming that wasn’t due to some sort of mysterious injury, he should be ready to roll this weekend against Da Bears. Who knows, maybe he is this week’s Dalvin Cook!
James Conner
NFL Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.12
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 17.69
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 17.69
Conner’s role in the backfield has been trending in the right direction the past few weeks. After getting just 50.5% of the market share of rushes in Weeks 5-6, that numbers has jumped up to 86.9% in the past two weeks. The end result was a total of 35 rushing attempts in the two games. The next closest? Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland tied with two apiece.
And while Conner may not be a true bellcow running back due to his snap count (e.g. ‘just’ 62% on the season), he is darn near close to it based on his involvement in the passing game and his red zone work. He has a respectable 9.2% of the market share of targets for the Steelers this season. And of the 14 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line for the Steelers this season, he has eight of them (converting four into touchdowns).
On tap for Week 9 is a favorable matchup and game-script against the Cowboys. The Steelers are almost two touchdown favorites (with an implied team total approaching 28 points), which means Conner could be staring down another 15-20 rushing attempts this week as well.
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Image Credit: Imagn