NFL DFS Stud WR Spotlight: Week 11 Projections
Player projections are set for this week, and our sights are now set on Sunday’s main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The time is now to unleash the RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer to discover the top projected wide receivers on the week. In this article, we will use the DFS player projections we create to discuss some high priced pass catchers with strong outlooks this week. We’ll also examine a high priced receiver who has some downside as well.
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Let’s get busy analyzing the slate, so that we can use projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
Week 11 NFL DFS Wide Receiver Report
Davante Adams
NFL Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 21.61
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 17.04
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 17.04
Adams continued his absurd stretch of massive target share in Week 10’s game against the Jaguars, racking up another 12 that he turned into 8 receptions for 66 yards and a score. It is a testament to how good he has been this season that his 19.6 DraftKings points in that game probably left DFS players who rostered him feeling disappointed.
All of the fantasy gold comes from that aforementioned target share. In the last five games (which overlaps with when he returned from injury), it sits at 36.9%. On the season, it is at 33.7%. That not only leads the league, but it is a few percentage points ahead of second place (31.6%). Then you factor in that Adams is also tied for the league lead in red zone targets with 14, which brings in plenty of touchdown equity as well.
So is it any surprise he has such a massive lead in DraftKings points per game this season at wide receiver? He is sitting at over 28 DraftKings points per game, while second place (DeAndre Hopkins) is all the way down at 21 per game. I think you can make a case that there is only one stud wide receiver, and his name is Davante Adams. We may need to come up with a new name for that second tier of receivers!
Keenan Allen
NFL Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: New York Jets
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.66
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 15.76
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 15.76
Speaking of absurdly high market share of targets, let’s talk about Keenan Allen.
Allen has played eight full games this season (he left the Week 5 game with back spasms). In those eight games, he has a 31.7% market share of targets. That number would put him second in the entire league behind only Davante Adams.
If we want to play devil’s advocate here, we can say that the number has been steadily decreasing. Below is his market share over the past four games, in chronological order:
31% > 28.6% > 26.8% > 21.9%
The only real issue there is the most recent game against the Dolphins, but Herbert only threw 32 times in that game with Allen seeing seven of them. It was a tough matchup against Miami, the same team that, the week before, limited DeAndre Hopkins to just three targets (albeit a handful more that resulted in pass interference penalties). Those other three games in that span for Allen still resulted in 9-10 targets in each.
Up next for the Chargers is an elite matchup against the Jets. I’d have to think that Allen is primed for a bounce-back game in Week 11, all things considered.
A.J. Brown
NFL Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 14.23
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 11.29
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 11.29
Trust me, I hate putting a guy here who has the kind of freakish talent that Brown does, but it’s hard to get excited about him in Week 11 against the Ravens when factoring in his price tag and projection.
To be specific, he is the 11th most expensive wide receiver on FanDuel but has just the 25th highest projection. On DraftKings, he is the fifth most expensive wide receiver and has just the 16th highest projection. See what I mean?
Brown is coming off of his worst fantasy performance of the season, catching only one of his four targets for a mere 21 yards. That was easily his lowest target game of the season, as he garnered anywhere between 7-9 in every other game this season.
But he wasn’t hauling in as many of his targets in the two games prior to that Colts matchup either. It is easy to overlook the fact that he only had four catches in both the Week 8 game and the Week 9 game since he was able to find the end zone both times.
Obviously, all of these things are likely to result in extremely low ownership on Sunday. Where exactly that pOWN% lands will ultimately be the main factor in deciding what kind of stance you take on him. If it comes in too high for your tastes though, there are obviously plenty of other options at this position with similar price tags and ceilings.