NFL DFS Stud WR Spotlight: Week 12 Projections
Player projections are set for this week, and our sights are now set on Sunday’s main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The time is now to unleash the RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer to discover the top projected wide receivers on the week. In this article, we will use the DFS player projections we create to discuss some high priced pass catchers with strong outlooks this week. We’ll also examine a high priced receiver who has some downside as well.
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Let’s get busy analyzing the slate, so that we can use projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
Week 12 NFL DFS Wide Receiver Report
Keenan Allen
NFL Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 21.04
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 16.02
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 16.02
I remember writing about Allen last week and noticing that his targets had declined little by little in each of the previous four games. From Week 7 to Week 10, he went 13 > 12 > 11 > 7.
But even though that isn’t a pattern you like to see, he still saw double-digit targets in three of those games! If anything the seven targets in Week 10 was just an aberration. And would you say the Chargers might have spent a little time in practice last week ensuring that Allen didn’t go another game seeing just seven targets?
After 19 targets against the Jets, I’d say so!
Exactly three players have seen more targets than that in a game this season. Well, technically two players since one of the three other occasions was Allen himself when he saw 20 targets in Week 3! Tyler Lockett also saw 20 targets in Week 7, and Cooper Kupp accomplished that feat in Week 8.
And since Allen also found the end zone against the Jets (in addition to, ya know, his 16 catches for 145 yards), he has now found paydirt in four straight games. That brings him to six touchdowns on the season, which matches his totals from each of the last three seasons (and he still has plenty more games to go).
With Davante Adams not on the FanDuel or DraftKings main slate this weekend (he is on the Yahoo main slate, for the record), it is Allen who leads our projections at wide receiver. Based on all of this volume and his recent knack for finding the end zone, it shouldn’t be all that surprising either.
Stefon Diggs
NFL Team: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.5
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 15.29
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 15.29
On the other side of this game (shootout anyone??), you have the number one wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs.
Diggs and the Bills are coming off of their bye week, and he headed into that bye being inundated with targets in several weeks prior. Since Week 5, Diggs had seen at least eight targets in each game. The end result in that span of six games was a market share of targets that equaled 32.9%. For comparison, the leader in that metric over the course of the entire season is Davante Adams 32.5%. Even though the Chargers have been elite against wide receivers this season (allowing just the 28th most fantasy points to the position), Diggs is still projecting for the second most fantasy points at this position in LineupHQ (our projections do factor in that matchup, so don’t double-count it).
I’ll be very curious to see where Projected Ownership lands on Allen and Diggs. Allen is slightly more expensive and is on the team with the far lower team total, but he also is coming off a monster fantasy performance in Week 11. Diggs is a few hundred cheaper than Allen on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is on the team with the much higher team total. On second thought, maybe we should just play them both. Game stack baby!
DeAndre Hopkins
NFL Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: New England Patriots
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 18.99
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 14.24
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 14.24
I certainly don’t want to insinuate that Hopkins is a “bad play”. However, it is absolutely worth noting the fact that a handful of wide receivers have higher projections than him in Week 12, while Hopkins checks in as the most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings and second most expensive on FanDuel.
I think what is ultimately driving Hopkins down a few points in projection this week is the matchup against the Patriots, which is a weird thing to say about a team that ranks 31st in Pass Defense DVOA. But a ton of other stuff we look at sets up unfavorably for Hopkins.
1) The Patriots defense has the fewest amount of plays run against them per game (57.6). Fewer plays = fewer chances to accumulate fantasy points.
2) The Patriots defense has allowed the fewest number of receptions to opposing wide receivers (108).
3) Offenses facing the Patriots this season have the second lowest Pass% (56.42%).
All of these little things start to add up, which is why Hopkins doesn’t find himself at the top of the wide receiver projections this week. Throw in the expensive price tags (and Stephon Gilmore coming back), and there is pretty clear reason to be down on him this week.
That being said, I shouldn’t have to tell you at this point that all of this could lead to very low ownership too. At a certain threshold of pOWN%, you have to say “matchup schmatchup” and just play one of the few receivers on the slate who can go for 150 yards and two touchdowns like it’s nothing.
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