NFL DFS Stud WR Spotlight: Week 13 Projections
Player projections are set for this week, and our sights are now set on Sunday’s main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The time is now to unleash the RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer to discover the top projected wide receivers on the week. In this article, we will use the DFS player projections we create to discuss some high priced pass catchers with strong outlooks this week. We’ll also examine a high priced receiver who has some downside as well.
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Let’s get busy analyzing the slate, so that we can use projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
Week 13 NFL DFS Wide Receiver Report
Davante Adams
NFL Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 23.11
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 17.82
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 17.82
Adams is back on the main slate this weekend after posting a modest (by his standards) 15.1 FanDuel points and 18.1 DraftKings points against the Bears on Sunday night.
The thing is though, he did almost all of that damage in the first half due to how the game-script went. He finished with six receptions (on nine targets), 61 yards, and one touchdown, but he was only thrown the ball twice in the second half. You’d have to think he would have been well on his way to another 12 targets or so if the Bears could have been within striking distance in the second half.
So even though Adams has two straight games with ‘only’ nine targets, we are still looking at the league leader in market share of targets on the season at 32.5%. And that, my friends, is why you see him comfortably sitting atop our wide receiver projections for Week 13.
Keenan Allen
NFL Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: New England Patriots
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.58
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 14.90
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 14.90
If I would have told you that Austin Ekeler returned in Week 12 to the tune of 16 targets and Hunter Henry saw 10 of his own, you’d probably instinctively just assume Keenan Allen got hurt early in that game or was triple-teamed.
Nope!
With the Chargers trailing for much of the game, Justin Herbert was chucking it all across the field. So even though Allen has a little more competition for targets these days with Ekeler back, he still saw 10 of them on Sunday against Buffalo. Despite finding the end zone yet again (fifth straight game for those counting at home), what ultimately hurt his final box score was that he and Herbert were only able to connect on four of those targets. That is just a 40% catch rate, while his number sits at 70% on the season.
With Ekeler back and that middling box score from Week 12, I’m guessing the DFS industry is lukewarm on Allen this week against the Patriots. But I think there are plenty of balls to go around with this offense. They have thrown at the eighth highest rate over the past three weeks, and they are also up to #1 in the league now in plays per game (72.64). Against a New England defense that is allowing the highest Pass Success Rate in the league (52.34%), I have no problem clicking Allen’s name again in Week 13.
DeAndre Hopkins
NFL Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 18.83
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 14.46
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 14.46
Hopkins is a stud WR that I’d prefer to be a little light on this week. And that is certainly nothing against him as a player; he is still one of the best in the game right now. I just think there are enough things working against him to be too excited to pay these price tags.
For one, the matchup is abysmal. Not only do the Rams rank fourth in Pass Defense DVOA, but they have also given up just the third fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. And if we zoom in a little closer, you’d have to think that Nuk sees a ton of Jalen Ramsey this weekend. Few would argue that Ramsey is one of the top cornerbacks in the league.
The other concerning thing is that the volume for Hopkins has taken a slight dip lately. In Weeks 1-7 his market share of targets was 31%. In Weeks 9-12 (their bye was Week 8), it is sitting at just 22.5%. That latter sample is skewed a tad by the Dolphins game (just three targets) in which he drew a handful of pass interference penalties, but even that is not enough to make up for the glaring negative trend.
Can Nuk post a big game this weekend despite all of these things? Of course! Talent is the ultimate trump card. That being said, there are enough things working against him this weekend that I’d need to see some really low Projected Ownership before I get excited about rostering him against the Rams.
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