Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 17 (Christmas Slate)

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-12-24 15:38:47 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for the Week 17 Christmas slate, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

We are typically only treated to a great NBA slate on Christmas, but we also have a 3-game NFL slate to look forward to. I wouldn’t call this a great slate of games, as three of the six teams are starting backup or third-string quarterbacks, and four of the six teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. But hey, we get an extra slate of football; we can’t complain. As always, I’ll break down my favorite plays for the slate position by position. Our Expert Play tags can be seen in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 17 (Christmas Slate)

We have a tricky slate on our hands. Many teams have questionable motivations, and we don’t have a ton of value to work with outside of the quarterback position. For me, the most important aspect of the slate is that none of the games will overlap. This means late swap should be your number one priority (if possible). For tournaments, I like to target contrarian plays from the first game because you’ll know exactly where you stand against the field. If your contrarian plays hit, you can play whoever you want in the next 2 games. If they don’t hit, then you can pivot away from the chalk in the last 2 games. There’s a lot more strategy in play on these short slates than meets the eye.

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

It looked like the Cowboys were going to make a run at the playoffs, but they suffered three straight losses and will now be watching the postseason from home. While team motivations are important to keep in mind this time of year, only two teams on the slate really have something to play for. Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,500 FD) has scored at least 23 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games, all of his weapons are healthy, and he draws the best matchup on the slate. The Commanders are 32nd in EPA against the pass and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Jared Goff ($6,200 DK / $8,000 FD) and the Lions are coming off back-to-back tough losses against the Steelers and Rams. However, they still have a 2% chance of making the playoffs. Cue the “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” meme from Dumb & Dumber. With something on the line and an always-motivated head coach, we should like all things Lions on Thursday. I’m willing to overlook a tough matchup on paper, but it’s worth noting that the Vikings are 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 1st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Bo Nix ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD) and the Broncos are coming off a bad loss against the Jaguars, but they can still win their division and potentially even finish as the top seed in the AFC. They have a lot to play for on Thursday. Their opponent (Chiefs) has nothing to play for. I worry about the competitiveness of this game following Kansas City’s blowout loss against the Titans, but Andy Reid should have his players more prepared this week. As far as the matchup, the Chiefs are 17th in EPA allowed per dropback and 11th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Josh Johnson ($4,400 DK / $6,300 FD) is my favorite of the backup quarterbacks on this slate. I’m not sure we need any of them, but at least going super cheap at quarterback will lead to a unique roster construction. Johnson has been in the league forever (2009 was his rookie year), so he has plenty of experience. He has good weapons in Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, and he draws a nice matchup against the Cowboys, who have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any team in the NFL.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Dak Prescott
💪 Strong Plays: Jared Goff, Bo Nix, Josh Johnson
🔗 Potential Pairings: Prescott + Pickens or Lamb, Goff + ARSB
❤️‍🩹 Injuries to Monitor: Marcus Mariota (D)

Top Running Back Plays

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