Noto's Key Personnel: Week 18 - Main Slate
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
The Key Personnel article will continue through the playoffs (at least through the Divisional Round), but this is the last full slate of the season. I appreciate you joining me for the slate breakdown each week and hope that it has helped many of you. This article makes me do a much deeper dive than I would otherwise, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that I’m having my best NFL season in years. I’m usually ready for the playoffs to start by this time, but the last few weeks have been so good (big shoutout to Darius Slayton) that I don’t want the big slates to end. But you know what they say- all good things must come to an end.
As far as this week goes, many refer to this as the information slate. It’s not quite as crazy as the preseason, but we have to be tuned into the injury reports and the beat writers for each team. We also have to know the motivations of the players and the teams, as some have a lot on the line while others are ready to start their off-season vacation plans. Keep in mind that a lot can change from now to lineup lock, so keep up to date with the final thoughts from all of the experts by visiting the Consensus Value Rankings, the Expert Survey, and LineupHQ. I will be keeping all three up to date right until lock on Sunday.
One last main slate. Let’s go!
NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 18 (Main Slate)
Quarterback
SALARY-SAVING EXPERT PLAY TAGS
Geno Smith: $6,100 DK / $7,300 FD
Nick Mullens: $5,100 DK / $7,100 FD
There are so many good options at quarterback this week that you don’t have to follow my lead here. However, I like the way the matchup sets up for Geno Smith. He’s affordable, and the Seahawks have to win to make the playoffs. Smith has struggled under pressure this season but has very good numbers when he is given time in the pocket. On the season, the Cardinals are 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sacks per game. On top of that, they are 26th or worse in DVOA against the pass, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Smith has elite weapons, an elite matchup, and all the motivation we could ask for.
The Vikings tried to give Jaren Hall a chance last week against the Packers, but he was nothing short of terrible. He was benched early in the game for Nick Mullens, who has been announced as the starter for Week 18. The Vikings are technically still alive in the playoff hunt, so they will go all out to win this game against the Lions. And beyond that, Mullens is looking to put some good football on tape for his future. We know he likes to take chances, and the biggest weakness for the Lions’ defense this season has been giving up the big play in the passing game. I think Mullens has more upside than most of the punts at quarterback.
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